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Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs

DAILY ALERT

Thursday,
November 28, 2024

In-Depth Issues:

Text: Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement - Dudi Kogan (Israel Hayom)
The Lebanese government released Wednesday the complete text of the ceasefire agreement with Israel.
An appendix to the agreement includes a map defining the area where Hizbullah forces are prohibited from operating and where the Lebanese army must dismantle remaining unauthorized facilities.
A notable aspect of the agreement is America's deep involvement in its supervision. Although American troops will not be stationed in Lebanon, an American general will be deployed to the region, with monitoring and control centers to be established in Beirut and Safed.
See also Text: Prime Minister Netanyahu Announces Ceasefire with Hizbullah (Times of Israel)

U.S. Pledge to Provide Critical Military Supplies Linked to Israel's Approval of Lebanon Ceasefire - Danny Zaken (Israel Hayom)
The Israeli Security Cabinet's decision to approve the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon was heavily influenced by the U.S. commitment to end its unofficial restrictions on weapons and military equipment - limitations that had impacted military operations and resulted in IDF casualties.
Israel Hayom has learned that the U.S. will provide Israel with previously restricted weapons components.
These encompass both enhancement modules that substantially improve existing weapons' capabilities and complete weapons systems that Washington had previously declined to transfer, marking a significant upgrade in the IDF's strike capabilities.
U.S. and Israeli security and diplomatic officials confirm that the critical military supplies to be made available include multiple categories of munitions, artillery and tank shells, precision-guided weapons, essential replacement parts, and several dozen Caterpillar D9 armored bulldozers.

Why France Agreed to Change View on Netanyahu Arrest Warrant - Ariel Kahana (Israel Hayom)
France has withdrawn its commitment to enforce the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in exchange for securing its role in the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement, an Israeli Security Cabinet minister has revealed.
"Without receiving this concession from the French, we would not have included them in the agreement," he said.

Israel Must Adopt a New Security Policy on Its Northern Border with Lebanon - Yoni Ben Menachem (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)
The ceasefire agreement with Lebanon presents Israel with significant intelligence and operational challenges to prevent Hizbullah's military recovery and reestablishment in southern Lebanon.
Current assessments within Israel's security establishment suggest that Hizbullah will recover quickly with Iranian support, regaining control over Lebanon and the southern border region with Israel.
Hizbullah could revive its original plan to seize parts of the Galilee in a future confrontation.
The hostile intentions of Iran and Hizbullah remain unchanged. Maintaining long-term security will require heightened vigilance.
Israel must conduct consistent military operations in Lebanese territory whenever Hizbullah violates the ceasefire agreement or UN Resolution 1701.

Israel Can't Lower Its Guard in Lebanon - Lior Ben Ari (Ynet News)
Hizbullah has faced a severe blow over the last year. However, it has no intention of disappearing, especially not from Lebanon's political arena.
Nor will it cease its military activities. These will continue covertly in the months following any agreement.
Even if Hizbullah has suffered a significant setback, its ideology remains unchanged and it's already planning its next major attack.
The Lebanese Army, which is supposed to oversee the implementation of UN Resolution 1701, is neither capable nor willing to assert its authority.
Nearly half of the Lebanese Army is made up of Shiites who have no interest in disarming Hizbullah.
In truth, no Lebanese body is capable of confronting Hizbullah.

UN Peacekeepers Cannot Enforce an Israel-Hizbullah Ceasefire - Sune Engel Rasmussen (Wall Street Journal)
For nearly two decades, thousands of UN peacekeepers have been helpless to stop Iran-backed Hizbullah from rearming along Israel's border.
Now that Israel and Hizbullah have come to a ceasefire ending a year of fighting, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) still lacks the capability to enforce a buffer zone between the parties, analysts said.
An Israeli official said Israel would ensure its own safety. "We're not talking about the dissolution of UNIFIL but also won't place the future security of northern Israel in UNIFIL's hand. We're not going back to Oct. 6."

Hizbullah Was Planning to Use Chemical Weapons Against IDF Soldiers in Lebanon - Amir Bohbot (Jerusalem Post)
The IDF discovered gas masks, chemical materials, and sedatives in the possession of Hizbullah operatives two months ago in Lebanon, suggesting that they had intended to use chemical weapons to abduct Israeli soldiers and civilians, Walla learned on Wednesday.

IDF Intercepts Drone Carrying Weapons across Egyptian Border - Yaniv Kubovich (Ha'aretz)
The IDF reported on Wednesday that it intercepted a drone carrying four rifles and hundreds of rounds of ammunition across the Egyptian border.

Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias Say They Will Continue to Attack Israel - Lior Ben Ari (Ynet News)
Officials in the pro-Iranian Islamic Resistance in Iraq told Hizbullah-affiliated Al-Akhbar that their militias will continue their military activities against Israel in the coming days, following the ceasefire in Lebanon.

Palestinian President Abbas Picks Future Successor - Einav Halabi (Ynet News)
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, 89, on Wednesday appointed Rawhi Fattouh, 75, former speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, as his temporary successor should he leave office.

Israel Comes Out of Conflict with Hizbullah Much Stronger - Ben-Dror Yemini (Ynet News)
Hizbullah's strength was supposed to deter Israel from any contemplation of striking the Iranian nuclear program. Everything written about Hizbullah's potential was accurate.
Then Israel struck Hizbullah with the pager operation, with massive bombings of missile and rocket depots, and with the elimination of Nasrallah and other top leaders in an unprecedented achievement.
Israel comes out of this conflict much stronger and Hizbullah has folded after a heavy blow.
Israel is in a position of strength. We lost this strength once because of a conciliatory approach. It must not happen again.

Displaced Lebanese Return to Destroyed Homes - Lior Ben Ari (Ynet News)
Along with the attempt to convey the joy of the ceasefire and a perceived victory, the Arab media covered the shock of displaced Lebanese residents when confronted with the realization of how difficult it will be to restore their destroyed homes before winter sets in.
Asharq Al-Awsat reported Wednesday that three days before the ceasefire, Hizbullah began printing posters and flags for distribution, creating a surreal sight of Lebanese driving around waving Hizbullah flags and celebrating "victory" among the ruins of their homes, when some of them have nowhere to return to.
In the Hizbullah stronghold of Dahieh, a Beirut suburb, 450 buildings were destroyed and many others damaged.

Hizbullah Was Badly Battered in This War - Avi Issacharoff (Ynet News)
While Hizbullah spokesmen may claim victory, the reality is clear to most Lebanese citizens. Hizbullah suffered a devastating defeat in the recent conflict.
Israeli intelligence demonstrated its ability to locate Hizbullah operatives down to the level of company commanders and including those facilitating weapons smuggling from Iran through Syria.
This campaign will undoubtedly be studied in military academies as a model of how Israel, through a combination of deception, tactical ingenuity, precise intelligence, combat spirit and soldierly sacrifice, managed to bring the conflict to a decisive close once the decision was made to act.
Israel had allowed Hizbullah to grow unchecked over the past 17 years without decisive action to stop its military buildup.
After the ceasefire, Hizbullah will undoubtedly resume its reconstruction efforts. Will Israel act decisively to prevent Hizbullah's next military buildup?

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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:

A Battered and Diminished Hizbullah Accepts a Ceasefire - Ben Hubbard
For years, Hizbullah told the Lebanese that it alone could defend them from Israel. It boasted of powerful weapons and hardened commandos who would unleash deadly "surprises" if war broke out. And it assured its followers that a regional alliance of militias supported by Iran would jump in to support it in battle. Those myths have now been shattered. After 13 months of war, Hizbullah entered a ceasefire with Israel on Wednesday after three months of withering Israeli attacks that have thrown the organization into disarray.
At the height of its power before the war, Hizbullah was perceived to be such a military threat that Israel and the U.S. feared that a war with it could devastate Israel. But as the war escalated, Israel stepped up its attacks so fast that Hizbullah found itself unable to mount a response close to what it had threatened for years.
Hizbullah's presence on Israel's border also deterred Israel from attacking Iran, because of fears that Hizbullah would bombard Israel in response. That threat has been drastically reduced, depriving Iran of a key defense. "Israel can attack Iran at will and Iran cannot do the same," said Paul Salem, a Lebanon expert at the Middle East Institute. (New York Times)
Biden Administration Advancing $680 Million Arms Sale to Israel - Humeyra Pamuk
The Biden administration is pushing ahead with a $680 million arms sales package to Israel, a U.S. official said Wednesday. The package includes thousands of joint direct attack munition kits (JDAMs) and hundreds of small-diameter bombs. The package follows a $20 billion sale in August of fighter jets and other military equipment.
On Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu listed the need to replenish weapons stocks as one of the reasons for the ceasefire in Lebanon. "It is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon." (Reuters)
Syrian Rebel Groups Launch Largest Offensive in Years - Eve Sampson
Syrian opposition forces have launched an offensive in western Aleppo district that has killed at least 89 people and overtaken a Syrian military base, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported Wednesday. Fighters from various rebel factions advanced to within six miles of Aleppo in the most notable escalation in the Syrian conflict since 2020. (New York Times)

News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:

IDF Destroyed Strategic Hizbullah Missile Production Site - Yoav Zitun
The IDF announced Wednesday that it bombed Hizbullah's largest precision-guided missile production site in an underground compound in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley shortly before the ceasefire went into effect. The IDF said Iranian operatives worked alongside Hizbullah at the site near the Syrian border. (Ynet News)
IDF Tells Lebanese Citizens Not to Return to Israel's Border
Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF's Arabic-language spokesman, told residents of southern Lebanon on Thursday not to return to south of a line marked on a map he shared on social media, warning that anyone who did so was putting themselves in danger. (Ha'aretz)
Hizbullah Claims Victory - Lior Ben Ari
The son of slain Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Wednesday shared a video from his destroyed home in Beirut's Dahieh district, claiming victory over Israel. Other residents of the Hizbullah stronghold celebrated by chanting support for the Shiite group. In southern Lebanon, returning villagers expressed joy to the Hizbullah-affiliated Al-Mayadeen network, claiming they had triumphed over Israel.
However, the Lebanese daily Nidaa al-Watan argued that Hizbullah's losses overshadow any claims of success. "Many of Hizbullah's leaders are no longer alive. Where is the victory without them?" It called the destruction of southern border villages, tunnels and defenses a catastrophic blow, labeling this outcome the worst defeat Hizbullah has faced since its founding. (Ynet News)
See also Son of Nasrallah Praises "Precious Victory"
Muhammad Mahdi Nasrallah, son of Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, said in a video at the site of his father's destroyed home on Nov. 27: "Praise be to Allah, who allowed us - the family of the master of the nation's martyrs - to share [the experience] of...being displaced from our homes....Are you pleased [with our sacrifices], oh Lord? Take more until You are pleased. We congratulate you on this precious victory." (MEMRI-TV)
IDF Intercepts Major Iranian Arms Shipment Intended for Samaria - Yoav Zitun
The IDF and Israel Security Agency said Wednesday they had thwarted an effort to smuggle Iranian weapons to terror operatives in the area of Jenin in the West Bank. The shipment had been sent by Unit 4000, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence's special operations division.
The shipment included "33 improvised Claymore explosives, wireless activation systems for Claymore explosives, six RPG-7 launchers, three 107mm rockets, 24 RPG-18 and RPG-22 rockets, 40 standard large Claymore explosives including detonators, two 60mm mortar barrels, 20 60mm mortar shells, six long M16 rifles and one M4 rifle with ammunition, seven Hunter sniper rifles and 37 pistols (Glock and XD-9)." (Ynet News)

Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

Hizbullah

Hizbullah's Ceasefire Is a Victory for Israel - Editorial
Israeli hard power has secured Hizbullah's agreement to abandon Hamas. Iran's terrorist proxy in Lebanon resumed firing rockets at Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, and it had pledged to continue until Israel conceded to Hamas's demands. The ceasefire deal marks Hizbullah and Iran's retreat under fire. The real achievement of the war is a change in the balance of power.
Hizbullah had been deterring Israel, which feared that Hizbullah might launch thousands of missiles a day and topple buildings in Tel Aviv. But once Israel took the initiative with air strikes and daring sabotage, Hizbullah couldn't deliver on its threats.
Israel killed Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah and tore through its chain of command. Its ground invasion cleared weapons stores and tunnels in the border villages. "This is no longer the same Hizbullah, we set it back decades," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday. With Iran newly vulnerable and Hamas isolated in Gaza, Israel has fought through to its strongest strategic position in at least a decade. (Wall Street Journal)
Sustaining Israel-Hizbullah Ceasefire Poses Huge Challenge for U.S. - Barak Ravid
With a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah, the U.S. will now be tasked with maintaining calm along the Israel-Lebanon border. The deal gives the U.S. the onerous tasks of monitoring violations.
U.S. officials say the next step is for the Lebanese military to move into southern Lebanon and ensure that the Hizbullah militia is moving north and any remaining heavy weaponry is removed. The Lebanese military failed to carry out a similar agreement after the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah.
A U.S. official contended that this time around, the U.S. will be more actively involved. While there will be no U.S. troops on the ground in southern Lebanon, U.S. military officers will work out of the embassy in Beirut in coordination with French, Israeli, Lebanese and UN officials. They will receive complaints and address violations. The deal does give Israel license to respond to direct security threats from Lebanese territory, but U.S. officials hope the monitoring system will mitigate the need to do so. (Axios)
The Ceasefire Agreement in Lebanon and the U.S. Letter of Guarantees to Israel - Itamar Eichner
Almost 14 months after Hizbullah joined Hamas in attacking Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, Israel's Security Cabinet approved a ceasefire plan brokered by the U.S. President Joe Biden announced the ceasefire on Tuesday in Washington. According to the agreement, Hizbullah and all other armed groups in Lebanese territory will not carry out any offensive action against Israel.
In addition, a U.S. letter of guarantees to Israel states that Israel and the U.S. intend to share sensitive intelligence concerning violations, including any infiltration by Hizbullah into the Lebanese army. The U.S. is committed to cooperating with Israel to curb Iran's destabilizing activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons, affiliates and others from Iranian territory.
The U.S. recognizes Israel's right to respond to threats coming from Lebanese territory in accordance with international law. In the region south of the Litani River, Israel reserves the right to act at any time against violations of the commitments. North of the Litani, Israel reserves the right to act against the development of threats directed against it, if Lebanon is unable or unwilling to thwart these threats. Israel will inform the U.S. of this wherever possible. (Ynet News)
Deterring Hizbullah - Max Boot
While Israel can certainly inflict heavy losses on its foes, it cannot simply vanquish them and, instead, will have to live with adversaries on its borders in the hope that it can deter them from further hostilities in the near future. None of this is to deny that Israel has inflicted major blows against Hizbullah.
Netanyahu summed up Israel's achievements in announcing the ceasefire on Tuesday: "We have taken out the organization's top leadership, we have destroyed most of their rockets and missiles, we have killed thousands of terrorists, and we demolished their underground terror infrastructure abutting our border, infrastructure they had been building for years."
But it is clear that Hizbullah, while substantially degraded as a military force, is far from defeated. On Sunday, Hizbullah fired 250 rockets and other projectiles at central and northern Israel. Israel's Institute for National Security Studies reports that Hizbullah has lost 2,450 fighters out of 40,000 to 50,000.
Hizbullah undoubtedly has tens of thousands of missiles and fighters left with which to rebuild its military capacity - and it is likely to return to southern Lebanon, next to the Israeli border - no matter what the ceasefire agreement states. As soon as Lebanese refugees return to southern Lebanon, Hizbullah fighters will be in their midst. Trying to prevent Hizbullah from rebuilding in the region would require Israeli soldiers to occupy southern Lebanon themselves.
Israel can live with Hizbullah fighters on its frontiers as long as they are deterred from actually attacking Israel. The 2006 ceasefire agreement did buy 17 years of peace, and, if the current one does the same, it will be an important achievement - one that will allow more than 60,000 Israeli refugees to return to their homes and rebuild their communities in northern Israel. (Washington Post)
Israel Won the Tactical Battle in Lebanon, but Hizbullah Will Use Ceasefire to Rebuild - Dr. Rodger Shanahan
Hizbullah has been dealt a grievous blow and paid a heavy price for its continuing support for the Palestinian cause in Gaza. By tying any ceasefire agreement in Lebanon to a ceasefire in Gaza, Hizbullah and Iran bet that it could pressure Israel on a second front without Israel fighting on a second front. They miscalculated. Israel has forced Hizbullah and Iran to decouple their fight with Israel from the conflict in Gaza.
As a result, Hizbullah's leadership has been decimated and its weapons stockpiles have been greatly reduced. Moreover, Israel's ability to target its senior leadership and to introduce booby-trapped pagers into its supply chain showed that Hizbullah was deeply penetrated by Israeli intelligence.
Yet, the idea that Hizbullah will withdraw to north of the Litani River and take its weapons with it while the Lebanese military protects the border with Israel ignores the fact that much of Hizbullah actually lives south of the Litani River and will simply return to their homes and rebuild.
Hizbullah will claim that it fought to the end and was still launching dozens of rockets into Israel until the ceasefire. It will now focus on reconstituting its military wing and reinforcing its support base by rebuilding that which Israel destroyed, with Iranian money.
No one can deny that achieving a ceasefire is a good thing. But the reality is that this is simply likely to be another, albeit extended, operational pause in the ongoing conflict between Israel and its enemies in the region. Israel won the tactical battle in Lebanon, but the strategic realities haven't changed.
The writer, a former Australian army officer who served with the UN in South Lebanon and Syria, in Beirut during the 2006 war, and in Afghanistan, was former director of the Army's Land Warfare Studies Centre. (Sydney Morning Herald-Australia)
A Ceasefire Deal Won't Finish Off Hizbullah - Jonathan Spyer
With the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbullah, community leaders in Israel's north have noted that while Hizbullah's infrastructure along the border has been extensively damaged, the movement itself has not been destroyed. The proposed agreement also does not include a buffer zone.
However, two new elements are included in the ceasefire agreement. The first is a U.S.-led enforcement committee, which will oversee the process. The second is a letter from the U.S. to Israel endorsing Jerusalem's right to take action against rocket and missile launches, and to interdict efforts to supply Hizbullah from Syria.
Are these elements likely to make a decisive difference? It can be said with near certainty that the Lebanese Army, heavily infiltrated by officers and soldiers with links to Hizbullah, and UNIFIL will not succeed in preventing Hizbullah's re-establishment along the border. After the 2006 war, Hizbullah's grip was firmly reimposed as soon as the fighting ended.
To be sure, Hizbullah is vastly more damaged now than after the 2006 war. Its entire top leadership cadre has been wiped out and the second rank has been decimated. The reconstruction process will begin from a substantially lower point than last time around. Yet, Lebanon is still host to an Iran-implanted deep state that is much stronger than the official bodies of state.
This means that residents of Israel's north are indeed set once again to have Hizbullah as their neighbors, though the organization will be weakened and chastened, at least for a while. This means that a further round of fighting is a near inevitability. Hizbullah is the owner of Lebanon. Iran is the owner of Hizbullah.
The writer is director of research at the Middle East Forum. (Spectator-UK)
The Ceasefire Test - Ofer Shelah
The ceasefire arrangement between Israel and Lebanon is a positive and necessary development. The decision was made not to pursue a decisive military operation across all of Lebanon - a decision dictated by the limitations of the IDF's capabilities and the lack of international legitimacy. What happens next?
UN Resolution 1701 failed because Hizbullah's almost immediate violations of them were not met with any decisive Israeli response, effectively leaving the conditions unenforced. Israel must act decisively to prevent Hizbullah from "creeping" southward, establish adequate border defenses, and engage in honest dialogue with the residents of the north to ensure they feel secure enough to return to their homes. This will be the true test of the arrangement.
The writer is director of the Israel National Security Policy research program at INSS. (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)

Iran

A Trump Win Has Iran Recalculating Its War with Israel - Aviram Bellaishe
Recently, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Hossein Salami, warned the U.S. and Israel that Iran will arm itself with whatever it needs to achieve victory. Kamal Kharrazi, head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, stated that Iran is capable of producing nuclear weapons.
When it turned out former President Trump had won the elections, Iran realized that it would have to reassess its strategy. In particular, when Trump's high-level appointments were announced, the regime recalculated its moves out of fear that any provocation could turn the incoming president into a more dangerous adversary and could give Israel the green light to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.
The Iranians now understand that the order of the day is to establish a communication channel for a nuclear agreement with the Trump administration. This would allow them to buy time, preserve the nuclear threshold status they have reached - and above all, forestall an Israeli attack on their nuclear program.
Iranian analysts now feel that they misjudged Jerusalem's capabilities. This revised outlook on Israel reinforces Iran's belief that Israel will eventually attack Iran's nuclear facilities once the opportunity arises.
Iran's fear of an Israeli attack is driving the need to stall for time and recalibrate to avert an Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. In Iran's view, the Trump administration may allow such an attack, especially considering the recent pro-Israel appointments and the backdrop of the ongoing war with Hamas, Hizbullah and other Iranian-supported terror proxies.
Tehran understands that, at this point, it is better to project a willingness for dialogue and work toward an agreement that will provide immunity from an Israeli strike while preserving its nuclear capabilities for a future date. Iran's ultimate goal of destroying Israel is seen as immutable, so a temporary delay is a necessity.
Israel must act in concert with the Trump administration to damage or destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and set back its arms race for years.
The writer, vice president for strategy, security, and communications at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years. (JNS)
Iran Uses Hizbullah as a Forward Operating Base - Michael Singh
The ceasefire in Lebanon is welcome and a testament to Israel's stunning military success. But it is largely a pledge to implement Resolution 1701. I helped to devise and negotiate that resolution in 2006; we did not consider it sufficient then, and it's not enough now. Left to its own devices, Iran will rebuild Hizbullah given time
So what is necessary to keep Hizbullah down this time? First, address the root of the problem - Iran cannot be allowed to continue disregarding Lebanon's sovereignty and using it as a forward operating base. All tools of U.S. and allied power should be used to disrupt Iran's support for Hizbullah.
Mount a comprehensive international effort to weaken and isolate Hizbullah, including financially. This starts with the EU et al. "finally" designating the group as a terrorist organization to enable coherent international cooperation against it.
Resume U.S.-led efforts to build a multilateral security and diplomatic structure in the Middle East, including normalization between Israel and likeminded Arab states. Israeli-Arab cooperation, facilitated by the U.S., has been key to countering Iranian designs over the past year. Deepening it will prove more effective still.
The writer, Managing Director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, is a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the U.S. National Security Council. (X)
Ceasefire with Hizbullah Has Exposed Iran's Impotence - Col. Richard Kemp
Hizbullah's solidarity with its jihadist brothers in Gaza was the pretext for launching its war of aggression against Israel the day after Hamas's Oct. 7 orgy of murder, rape, kidnapping and torture. Yet their leaders have been taken out by the dozen, huge numbers of fighters cut down, rockets and launchers blown to smithereens, and all of their village strongholds in southern Lebanon razed to the ground.
The blow that this ceasefire represents to the Iranian regime is every bit as great. Hizbullah, painstakingly built up at enormous expense over 40 years, was their flagship, the most important part of the "ring of fire" put in place to burn Israel to death. A ceasefire was seen by the ayatollahs as the best way of salvaging something from the wreckage.
Tehran is on the cusp of achieving a nuclear capability to threaten Israel, the Middle East and the world. But Iran is now exposed more than ever before. The primary purpose of Hizbullah's massive arsenal of rocketry was to deter against an Israeli or U.S. military assault on Tehran's nuclear weapons program.
That deterrent is largely gone and the IDF substantially destroyed Iran's air defenses in its retaliatory strikes in October. That means Israel is in an unprecedented position to put a stop to the Iranian menace.
The writer, a former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, was chairman of the UK's national crisis management committee, COBRA. (Telegraph-UK)
The Ceasefire Deal with Hizbullah Marks a Defeat for Iran - Jonathan S. Tobin
Israel has achieved some real gains in the ceasefire deal with Hizbullah. Israel has finally forced Hizbullah and Iran to retreat from their determination to keep firing as long as Hamas is fighting in Gaza. This isolation of Hamas is a victory for the Jewish state.
So, too, is the fact that the last two months of Israeli attacks on Hizbullah have significantly degraded their capacity to inflict harm on the region. That's a defeat for Iran, which had hoped that the seven-front war on Israel it had incited could go on indefinitely. Instead, they are the ones who have been diminished by military setbacks and vast losses inflicted on a group whose main purpose is to serve as a deterrent to attacks on Iran.
At the same time, Hizbullah has never kept its word about anything, let alone agreements to stop attacking Israel or to withdraw from the southern part of Lebanon over which it has largely ruled for a generation. Israel cannot rely on the U.S. or France to take action to guarantee that Hizbullah will not simply move its terrorist forces and missiles back to Israel's border as soon as the IDF withdraws. Only Israeli action can defend the security of the Jewish state.
While Hizbullah and Iran will over time reorganize, rearm and recoup their losses, the fact that Hizbullah was forced by its losses to accept a ceasefire without it being tied to an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza is an enormous setback for Iran's multifront war strategy. The ceasefire in the north will also enable the IDF to concentrate on mopping up Hamas guerrillas in Gaza. With Hizbullah weakened and Hamas on the run, as well as with much of its own air defenses being taken out by Israeli military action, Tehran is far weaker than it was on Oct. 6, 2023. (JNS)
A Pact for Peace: Controlling Hizbullah and Focusing on Iran - Dr. Fiamma Nirenstein
The previous 2006 ceasefire agreement lacked the mechanisms for oversight and intervention. Now Israel is establishing, with U.S. support, an agreement that allows the monitoring of Hizbullah's actions, and timely intervention.
Israel wants to avoid provoking U.S. President Joe Biden into allowing the UN Security Council, like President Barack Obama did in 2016, to condemn it. It seeks respite for the reservists who have been fighting for more than a year. Israel also wants to expedite American arms supplies and compel Hamas, now completely isolated, to negotiate on hostages. Israel, however, has never aimed to eliminate Hizbullah, as doing so would require occupying Lebanon.
The Jewish state understands that continuing to battle Hizbullah diverts time and resources from the primary target: Iran, which is developing a nuclear bomb while reshaping its strategy of encirclement.
The writer, a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs, served as vice president of the Committee on Foreign Affairs in the Italian Chamber of Deputies. (Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs)

International Criminal Court

The International Criminal Court Flushes Its Credibility - Dan Perry
The International Criminal Court has been plunged into a crisis of its own making with its indictment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. It is a lesson about the dangers of overreach and dishonesty. The charges expose the ICC to accusations of selective justice and dangerous naivety about the realities of asymmetric warfare.
The indictment ignores Hamas's strategy of completely embedding military infrastructure within civilian areas, knowing full well that any Israeli response to its Oct. 7 massacre would result in civilian casualties and simplistic international condemnation. The ICC has essentially validated a tactic that endangers civilians, encouraging terrorist organizations to replicate it in future conflicts.
The writer was chief editor of the Associated Press in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. (Newsweek)

Palestinian Arabs

Editor of PA Daily Blasts Hamas for Triggering Devastation on Gaza
Mahmoud Abu Al-Hija, editor-in-chief of the Palestinian Authority mouthpiece Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, wrote on Nov. 19, 2024: "Before we ask what benefit we have derived from the [Al-Aqsa] Flood, [Hamas's Oct. 7 attack on Israel], we must ask what benefit we derived from the [previous] wars Hamas waged against Israel since it carried out its coup against the legitimate Palestinian Authority [in 2007]."
""Before these wars, Gaza was on the path to a future of prosperity and cultural development....After the PA established a [sea] port and an airport in [Gaza], towers were built over the dunes and there was a sovereign [border] crossing through which Gazans could travel...with a Palestinian passport that allowed them entry to sister Arab countries and friendly foreign countries."
"But six wars undermined this promise, and the seventh war, 'the [Al-Aqsa] Flood,' destroyed it...and left horrific heaps of rubble that will take five years to clear away....Our wounded people, especially in Gaza, are the ones who now compare their situation before the seven wars to their condition after these wars, and especially after the last one, whose flames are still raging."
"From now on, there is no way to avoid these comparisons, and soon they will form the basis for a re-examination, a demand for accountability, and a full application of justice against those who enabled this catastrophe." (MEMRI)

Observations:

Iran Permitted Lebanon Ceasefire to Protect Hizbullah - Zvi Bar'el (Ha'aretz)

Under the ceasefire agreement, Hizbullah won't be disarmed. Its thousands of long-range and short-range missiles, its arsenal of drones, its advanced ballistic technology and all its other military infrastructure will continue to exist. If the agreement is implemented in full, Hizbullah will move farther away from Israel, north of the Litani River. But it won't disappear.
Moreover, southern Lebanon won't remain empty of its inhabitants like a buffer zone, even though Israel has destroyed numerous villages near the border. As far as the Lebanese government is concerned, the residents who were displaced or fled their villages will return home.
While 15,000 Lebanese army soldiers alongside UNIFIL troops are to be deployed in the area between the Litani River and the Israeli border, the weak Lebanese army is incapable of confronting Hizbullah's military strength. In Lebanon, Hizbullah is an integral part of the government and parliament and represents the Shi'ite majority. Unofficially, it has received the status of a "defense force" necessary for national security for as long as the Lebanese army in incapable of handling external threats.
Lebanon's government, which has been a temporary transition government for the past three years, is at most the mediator between Israel and Hizbullah, and its signature on the agreement is meant to grant it a legitimate formal framework.
Iran is a full partner in the agreement. Without the strategic decision made in Tehran that allowed the separation between the fronts in Gaza and Lebanon, and which, in practice, broke up the unity of the "support front" for Hamas, the negotiations over the agreement may never have moved forward. The fear of the loss of their asset in Lebanon seems to have tipped the balance.

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