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In-Depth Issues:
Lebanon Ceasefire Is Holding - Amos Harel ( Ha'aretz)
On its 10th day, the ceasefire between Hizbullah and Israel seems to be relatively successful, at least for now.
The UN's peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL, will play a relatively marginal role in the new scheme of things, given Israeli and American frustration over its performance between wars.
From Israel's perspective, U.S. involvement is a tie-breaker.
The Americans have been very cautious about deploying "boots on the ground" in Lebanon after attacks on their soldiers in the 1980s.
Their willingness to head the ceasefire monitoring apparatus indicates that Washington has understood that there is no chance of attaining a positive outcome without them.
The consent Iran gave to Hizbullah to allow U.S. involvement, and its decision to sever the link between Lebanon and Gaza attest to the dimensions of Hizbullah's failure in this war.
Iran is now trying to rebuild whatever remains of Hizbullah's firepower and battle formations. This requires quiet and time for recovery.
Israel Assists UN Forces in Repelling Attack in Southern Syria - Lior Ben Ari ( Ynet News)
The IDF said Saturday it aided UN forces in repelling a rebel attack on a UN outpost near the Druze village of Hader in southern Syria's Quneitra province, opposite Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights.
The IDF is deployed with reinforced forces in the Golan Heights area.
Nearly a decade ago, the IDF acted to protect Hader against rebel advances, preventing Israeli Druze from taking independent action to safeguard their Syrian relatives.
CIA Leak Delayed Israeli Strike on Iran, Court Documents Confirm - Daniel Edelson ( Ynet News)
U.S. prosecutor Troy Edwards argued in federal court that a leak of classified documents by CIA employee Asif William Rahman, 34, delayed a planned Israeli military operation against Iran, in response to Iran's Oct. 1 attack, out of concern that its plans had been compromised.
Rahman is accused of leaking two classified documents from secure systems that detailed Israeli preparations for an attack on Iran.
He was arrested in Cambodia while attempting to delete classified files and enhance the security of his digital devices.
Israel Showed the "Power" of F-35s in Destroying Nearly All of Iran's Air Defenses without a Loss, UK Admiral Says - Jake Epstein ( Business Insider)
Adm. Tony Radakin, the UK's chief of defense staff, disclosed that Israel used its F-35s to carry out the widespread October 26 strikes against military sites across Iran, including air-defense systems and missile-manufacturing facilities, in response to a massive Iranian missile attack at the start of the month.
"Israel used more than 100 aircraft, carrying fewer than 100 munitions, and with no aircraft getting within 100 miles of the target in the first wave, and that took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air-defense system," Radakin told the Royal United Services Institute in London.
"It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year and left Tehran with a strategic dilemma in how it responds. That is the power of fifth-generation aircraft, combined with exquisite targeting and extraordinary intelligence," Radakin said. "And that was all delivered from a single sortie."
IDF Commander: "It's Hard to Imagine the Quantity of Weapons Hizbullah Has Accumulated and Hidden" - Avi Ashkenazi ( Jerusalem Post)
Since Oct. 7, the IDF's 7th Armored Brigade has not stopped for a moment, participating in battles in Gaza and, for the past two months, engaging in three rounds of fighting in Lebanon.
Brigade commander Col. Elad Zuri said in an interview: "When we were fighting in Gaza, I said it was hard to imagine the sheer number of tunnels. Here, I say it's hard to imagine the quantity of weapons Hizbullah has accumulated and hidden."
"Almost every house we enter to search reveals weaponry. Some are wrapped in plastic and stored in homes converted into emergency depots for the organization, but we've also found launchers with missiles ready to fire at Israel."
Video: Terrorists Steal PA Vehicles in Jenin ( Jerusalem Post)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas terrorists drove vehicles they stole from the Palestinian Authority security services through the streets of Jenin in Samaria on Thursday, Israeli media reported.
PA security forces spokesperson Gen. Anwar Rajab said, "A group of outlaws opened fire on the headquarters of the security services" and stole two vehicles.
The Propaganda War on Israel Never Stops - Editorial ( Wall Street Journal)
Amnesty International's new report, Israel's Genocide Against Palestinians in Gaza, begins:
"On 7 October 2023, Israel embarked on a military offensive on the occupied Gaza Strip of unprecedented magnitude, scale and duration."
Gaza wasn't occupied, and Hamas, not Israel, embarked on a military offensive.
Amnesty even criticizes Israel for evacuating civilians from active war zones.
Not one of the groups yelling genocide calls on Egypt to let women and children escape to safety by opening its border with Gaza.
Uniquely in this conflict, they insist that civilians be penned in the war zone.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Syrian Rebels Say They Have Captured Damascus, President Assad Has Fled - Bassem Mroue
The Syrian government fell early Sunday. Syrian state television aired a statement saying that President Bashar Assad has been overthrown and all detainees in jails have been set free. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali said the government was ready to "extend its hand" to the opposition and turn its functions over to a transitional government.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Assad had left Damascus. Soldiers and police officers left their posts and fled, and looters broke into the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense. The police headquarters in the capital appeared to be abandoned, its door left ajar.
(AP)
- In the Syrian Regime's Hour of Need, Its Patron Iran Makes an Exit - Farnaz Fassihi
For four decades, Iran has expended much blood and money in support of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, helping him survive a civil war. Iran operated military bases, weapons warehouses and missile factories in Syria, which it used as a pipeline for arming its allies across the region. Now, Iran is heading for the exits. On Friday, Iran started evacuating its military commanders and personnel, as well as some diplomatic staff, according to Iranian and regional officials.
A collapse of Iran's partnership with Syria would reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. The "axis of resistance" would be weakened. Israel and its Arab allies would be strengthened. "Everything that Iran sent to the region went through Syria. It is now extremely difficult to keep these channels open," said Hassan Shemshadi, an expert on Iran's proxy militant groups, in an interview from Tehran. Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice president, wrote on X: "Resistance in the region would be left without support. Israel would become the dominant force." (New York Times)
- The Kremlin Won't Come to Syrian Leader's Rescue - James Kilner
A source close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg News, "Russia doesn't have a plan to save Assad and doesn't see one emerging as long as the Syrian president's army continues to abandon its positions." The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Asma al-Assad, the Syrian president's British-born wife, fled with their three children to Russia last week. Assad's two brothers-in-law also left Syria and traveled to the UAE.
Fighterbomber, a prominent aviation military blogging channel, has warned that the Kremlin will struggle to evacuate its main Khmeimim air base. "In the best case, it is possible to evacuate most of the personnel, documentation and ferry serviceable aircraft. All other property will remain at the bases....The Khmeimim airfield is not a multi-story industrial facility with basements, it is a field with easily-assembled houses on top, which will cease to function as soon as the enemy either approaches the range of artillery fire or the range of drones." (Telegraph-UK)
See also Russia Facing "Saigon Moment" in Syria -
Sune Engel Rasmussen
A fast-advancing rebel offensive in Syria threatens to dislodge Russia from important air and naval bases in that country that Moscow has used for a decade to project power in the Middle East, in the Mediterranean and into Africa. The Khmeimim air base near Latakia serves as a logistical hub for flights to Libya, the Central African Republic, and Sudan, where Russian private contractors and soldiers have operated for years.
A naval base in Tartus serves as the only replenishment and repair point for the Russian navy in the Mediterranean. Tartus has granted Putin access to a warm water port, something Russian rulers have sought for centuries. A rebel takeover of these positions could jeopardize Russia's global power projection.
Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said,
"To see Russian planes leave Syria as rebel forces move onward towards their air bases, and their assets in Damascus fall...would be akin to a Saigon moment for them," recalling when the U.S. left Saigon in 1975.
(Wall Street Journal)
- Risk of Iran Building Nuclear Weapons Grows, U.S. Intelligence Says - Laurence Norman
The danger of Iran choosing to build a nuclear weapon is increasing, the U.S. intelligence community said in a report released Thursday. Iran now has enough fissile material to make more than a dozen nuclear weapons, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (Wall Street Journal)
See also Western Source: Iran's Nuclear Leap "Extremely Serious"
Iran's acceleration in its enrichment of uranium to close to bomb grade is "extremely serious," has no civilian justification, and contradicts Tehran's assertions on wanting serious nuclear negotiations, a Western diplomatic source said on Saturday. UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said Friday that Iran was dramatically accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the 90% level that is weapons grade.
(Reuters)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Sunni Rebels Capture Quneitra on Israel's Doorstep - Yoav Zitun
On Saturday, Syrian opposition forces announced their capture of Quneitra province, located near the Israeli border in the Golan Heights. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights earlier confirmed the Assad regime had lost control of the adjacent Daraa province in southwestern Syria. Rebel leaders disclosed that their takeover of Daraa was facilitated by an agreement allowing regime forces a safe withdrawal.
The rebels from the south had reconciled with the Syrian government in 2018 but have now returned to rebellion. These historic rebels are very different from those moving on Damascus from the north.
(Ynet News-Jerusalem Post)
- IDF Responds to Assad Regime's Fall - Yoav Zitun
The IDF on Sunday moved tanks and infantry troops into the demilitarized zone along the Israel-Syria border on the Golan Heights after the fall of the Assad regime to prevent any incursion of Syrian rebel forces into Israeli territory. Ground and aerial forces have been bolstered along the border.
Earlier on Sunday, the Israeli Air Force conducted a series of raids around Damascus, targeting advanced weapons systems and warehouses before they fall into the hands of rebels, including a chemical weapons storage facility. The IDF reportedly struck a convoy of Hizbullah fighters leaving the Syrian city of Al-Qusayr, shortly before the area fell into rebel hands.
(Ynet News)
See also IDF Buffer Zone Deployment Coordinated with UN, to Continue until Situation in Syria Stabilizes - Emanuel Fabian (Times of Israel)
- Soldier Severely Wounded in West Bank Car-Ramming Attack - Elisha Ben Kimon
An IDF soldier was seriously wounded Saturday evening in a car-ramming attack near Al-Fawar, south of the city of Hebron. The assailant, who fled the scene, surrendered to Israeli security forces after several hours.
A civilian vehicle in the area was struck by gunfire, injuring a man with glass shards.
(Ynet News)
- Israel Intercepts Missile from Yemen on Sunday
The Israel Air Force intercepted a missile from Yemen early Sunday morning. (Jerusalem Post)
See also Israel Intercepts Missile from Yemen on Saturday
The IDF intercepted a missile launched from Yemen on Saturday morning. (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Syria
- Developments in Syria Favor Israel, but the Tide Could Suddenly Turn - Ron Ben-Yishai
The Sunni jihadist rebel offensive has triggered a chain reaction among Syria's various ethnic and religious groups, most of which are now successfully asserting control over their respective territories. Quneitra province, located near Israel's border, is currently controlled by local villagers who have had connections with Israel, particularly as Israel provided humanitarian aid and medical aid to the wounded during the civil war between 2015 and 2018. However, there is a threat that Sunni jihadists from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) could seize the area from the villagers.
In eastern Syria, the U.S.-backed Kurdish-Arab SDF militia has captured the area of Al-Bukamal, a critical border crossing between Iraq and Syria and a key point in the land corridor through which Iranian supplies flow via Iraq into Syria and Lebanon. Operating under the protection of U.S. troops stationed east of the Euphrates River, the SDF's control of Al-Bukamal and Deir ez-Zor to the north severs the overland supply route from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon. This represents a significant blow to Hizbullah, the Syrian regime, and the Tehran-led Shia axis.
(Ynet News)
- Syria: Better the Devil We Don't Know - Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin and Col. (res.) Udi Evental
From the perspective of Israel's strategic interests, the rebel attack in Syria presents opportunities that overshadow the risks. During the years when ISIS controlled territories in Iraq, the Iranian land route from Iran to Syria was blocked. Now, a similar blockage is expected to affect the land routes from Syria to Lebanon.
The chances of the recent agreement in Lebanon to restrain Hizbullah in the long term are increasing, as the process of its military recovery, after the war with Israel, will be slowed.
At the same time, Iran's appetite for continuing cycles of threats and blows with Israel is expected to wane further, after Israel's effective strikes within its territory in October, which have already cooled its enthusiasm.
Some view Assad's regime as the "lesser evil" and argue that Israel would be better off with "the devil we know." According to this view, Assad is a figure with whom Israel can engage in deterrence dialogue (allowing air force freedom of action). He suppresses the Islamist forces that are far from being "Zionist-friendly," and he maintains a certain degree of stability in Syria and control over weapons, especially unconventional ones, within its territory.
We disagree. Assad, who massacred half a million of Syria's citizens and used chemical weapons against them, is a central figure in the axis that poses the most significant strategic threat to Israel. Most of Hizbullah's weapons have come from his production lines, his warehouses, or from Iran through Syrian territory. The ties between the Alawite regime in Syria and the mullah regime in Tehran are deep, and all efforts to distance Syria from Iran have been in vain.
On the other hand, the many Sunni rebel groups in Syria are not expected to direct their weapons toward Israel, certainly not in the immediate or medium term. They have a long-standing blood feud with Assad, Iran, and Hizbullah, and also among themselves.
Israel would prefer "the devil we don't know," as long as it leads to the weakening of Iran and the Shiite axis, which would mean a dramatic and positive shift for Israel in the regional balance of power.
Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin served as the head of IDF Military Intelligence from 2006 to 2010. Col. (res.) Udi Evental is former head of the Strategic Planning Unit of the Israeli Defense Ministry. (Times of Israel)
- The Fall of the Assad Regime: A Dramatic Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance - Maj. (res.) Danny Citrinowicz
In hindsight, Israel's targeting of senior Hizbullah figures and Iranian Quds Force leaders in Lebanon and Syria dramatically undermined the ability of Iran's Axis of Resistance to assist the Syrian army.
The heavy blow suffered by Hizbullah and the fall of Assad's regime threaten to dismantle the defense system that Qasem Soleimani so successfully built for Tehran.
Soleimani essentially established the Axis of Resistance, which relied on Iran's ability to advance its interests, deter Israel and the U.S. from acting against Iran, and keep war away from Iran's borders without paying a significant price for achieving these goals. Now, rebuilding Hizbullah's capabilities without Assad is highly questionable.
Tehran could theoretically enrich uranium to a military-grade level of 90% to theoretically "compensate" for the damage to the axis and significantly strengthen Iran's deterrence.
However, such a move without Hizbullah's protective umbrella, combined with Israel's demonstrated capability to strike in Iran and the presence of President Trump in the White House, could pose a direct threat to the regime in Tehran.
The writer, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specialized in Iran, is a research fellow at INSS. (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
- Why Syria's Army Collapsed So Suddenly - Liz Cookman
Syrian army units abandoned their positions on the outskirts of Damascus on Saturday night, fleeing the advance of rebel forces. Analysts said that low pay and morale as well as little experience were hampering the effectiveness of the army.
"The Syrian army has never been very good - it ruled by fear and terror, bolstered and backed up by Russians since 2015 who provided firepower and direction. Most of the officers were selected because they were close to Assad," said Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a retired British army colonel. "The commanders...are more focused on smuggling and extortion than on actually creating defensive positions and leading their troops," said Greg Waters, of the Middle East Institute.
Stephen Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that the bulk of the Syrian army was made up of conscripts who "did not want to be there." He described Assad's army as a "Soviet-style" military that has huge problems with supply and logistics.
Large numbers of army deserters have laid down their arms and surrendered to the rebels, with a long queue forming in Idlib after they were offered amnesty. (Telegraph-UK)
- Are the Syrian Rebels Preferable to the Assad Regime? - Max Boot
The Syria experts I've talked to in recent days argue that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - a U.S.-designated terrorist group - is preferable to the Assad regime. Although HTS began as an offshoot of al-Qaeda, it broke ties with that terrorist group more than a decade ago and has, in fact, battled both al-Qaeda and Islamic State fighters. HTS is still an illiberal, Islamist movement with a history of human rights violations, but it is not known to have carried out crimes against humanity, unlike the regime it is fighting.
Steven Heydemann, a professor of Middle East studies at Smith College, told me, "It is no longer the kind of Salafist movement it was when affiliated with Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda more than a decade ago. HTS is trying very hard to distance itself from the radical form of Islamism we see in the Taliban." Heydemann suggested the U.S. explore delisting HTS as a terrorist organization, provided it meets certain requirements, such as protecting Christians, Kurds and other minority groups in the areas under its control.
(Washington Post)
Observations:
- Syria's pro-Iranian Alawite minority has fallen. Damascus was captured by the most formidable element of the anti-Assad coalition, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The group is led by the Sunni Islamic fundamentalist Abu Mohammad al-Jolani.
- Despite Western media re-broadcasts of Jolani's recent messages "We come in peace," Jolani is suspected of remaining a committed Islamist who has vowed to establish an Islamic Republic in Syria. Historically, he has been an avowed enemy of the West and Israel.
- It would be prudent for the West to remember that HTS stands for the liberation of the entire Levant, which includes not only Syria, but Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan as well.
- Turkey is a major supporter of HTS. Turkey has hosted at least three million Syrian refugees during the 12-year Syrian civil war, and Istanbul has been the site of several assemblies of Syrian opposition groups.
- Russia and Iran, the former regime's erstwhile supporters, are the losers in the fall of the Assad dictatorship.
- The Russians will need to negotiate with the new sheriff in town, presumably to oversee Russia's withdrawal from its Syrian air bases and naval facility.
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