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In-Depth Issues:
Israel Weighs Response to Escalating Houthi Attacks - Lior Ben Ari ( Ynet News-Jerusalem Post)
On Monday afternoon, air raid sirens blared across central Israel, sending millions of Israelis into shelters after a missile launched by Yemen's Houthis targeted the country.
The missile from Yemen was intercepted before it crossed into Israeli territory and there were no injuries.
The alarms were triggered due to concerns over falling interceptor debris.
Debris from the missile, intercepted by Israel's Arrow system, landed in Leshem, a community in Samaria, and in the Beit Hanina neighborhood of Jerusalem.
All takeoffs and landings at Ben-Gurion Airport were halted for an hour.
The Houthis have fired a dozen ballistic missiles and drones at Israel since the start of November, including several in the last two weeks.
Israeli sources said that the Houthis' increasingly aggressive actions could prompt a far more substantial Israeli response than in two earlier strikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.
"There will be no restraint - they will get what they deserve. They will pay a heavy price," warned Israeli officials.
Former Top Israeli Security Official: "Hamas Will Never Give Back All the Hostages" - Yonah Jeremy Bob ( Jerusalem Post)
Former top Israel Security Agency official Arik Barbing told the Jerusalem Post in an interview that he does not expect a quick and comprehensive resolution of the hostage issue.
He believes that any deal with Hamas will leave a certain number of hostages in Hamas's possession and that some kind of extended standoff is inevitable.
"Hamas will never give back all of the hostages. They will preserve some ambiguity about who is left."
"There are also questions about where the dead bodies of those hostages who were killed are. Hamas lost some of the bodies. Some, Islamic Jihad is holding. Some, criminal Gazan elements who are loyal to and associated with Hamas are holding."
He believes Hamas will play games and only give hostages back in rounds of deposits.
"We probably cannot get 100% back - there will be some Ron Arad-type cases where we will never get the bodies back."
"We cannot leave Gaza now because Hamas will not keep the deal for the rest of the hostages anyway, and then it will be harder for the IDF to go back."
"There is no one yet to replace Hamas. We need to be very strong against Hamas. If we leave a vacuum, Hamas will come back fast."
Defense Minister: Israel Will Have Security Control over Gaza like Judea and Samaria - Miri Weissman ( Israel Hayom)
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared on Tuesday that Israel will exercise "full freedom of action" in Gaza, similar to its operations in Judea and Samaria.
"We will not allow any terrorist organization against Israeli communities and Israeli citizens from Gaza. We will not allow a return to the reality of before Oct. 7."
Residents of Syrian Golan Villages, Rebels Transfer Assad Weapons to IDF ( Jerusalem Post)
Villagers and rebels in the Syrian Golan and around the buffer zone have been transferring weapons from the Assad regime to the IDF to be taken to Israel, N12 revealed on Monday.
Footage shows Syrians loading trucks with hundreds of boxes of ammunition, mortars, bombs, and grenades and transferring them to the IDF.
IDF soldiers said they found several weapons filled with chemical warfare material.
Senior Hamas Official Admits: "Oct. 7 Ruined Us" - Shachar Kleiman ( Israel Hayom)
A senior Hamas official based in Turkey told Saudi media that "Hamas is suffering from a genuine leadership crisis. The [Oct. 7] Al-Aqsa Flood attack backfired on us, submerging us in a sea of blood and crises."
The Hamas official reiterated that the organization's leadership is currently directionless, stating, "Gaza has been completely destroyed."
According to a report by the Saudi news site Elaph, the Syrian government has ordered Palestinian terrorist groups to shut down their offices, hand over their weapons, dismantle training camps, and leave Syria as soon as possible.
Turkey Has Illegally Occupied 5,500 Miles of Syria for Years. Where Is the Outcry? - Jake Wallis Simons ( Sunday Telegraph-UK)
Israel is only ever permitted to die. That has been the position of the diplomatic elites, intelligentsia and much of the media for the past 14 months.
Every action that would save Israeli lives has been opposed by somebody and some have been opposed by everybody.
With its actions to destroy Syria's MiG warplanes, attack helicopters, surface-to-surface missile batteries and cruise missiles, not to mention chemical weapons, Israel may have done more for regional counter-proliferation in a single week than the UN has achieved in eight decades.
The loudest howls came when Israel temporarily seized a buffer zone along the frontier to prevent jihadi infiltration of its territory.
While critics accused Israel of occupying "a chunk of Syria," Turkey has occupied 5,500 square miles of northwest Syria for years. March through London anybody?
The writer is editor of the Jewish Chronicle-UK.
IDF Has Confiscated 10,000 Hizbullah Weapons in Southern Lebanon - Yonah Jeremy Bob ( Jerusalem Post)
The IDF said Sunday it has confiscated over 10,000 Hizbullah weapons in southern Lebanon.
In Gaza, acting on prior intelligence, troops raided a terrorist meeting point in the Beit Hanoun area.
The operation resulted in the elimination of dozens of Hamas terrorists and the arrest of additional terrorists - a larger quantity than the IDF usually sees these days.
As Northern Israel Comes Back to Life, Hizbullah Strongholds over the Border Lie in Ruins - Lazar Berman ( Times of Israel)
The IDF offensive beginning in October drove Hizbullah back from Israel's northern border. Israeli troops searched the border villages and detonated any building used by Hizbullah for military purposes.
While the Israeli side of the border slowly dusts itself off after 14 months of shelling, it is hard to imagine any semblance of normal life returning to Lebanese border towns in the coming years as many have been flattened.
"Every village that was actually a military village, we dealt with it as they should be dealt with," said Brig.-Gen. Shai Klepper. "We destroyed the operatives and the infrastructure."
He made clear that every building that housed a Hizbullah fighter, weapons cache or tunnel was knocked down.
A Diminished Hizbullah Is Made Even Weaker by the Toppling of Assad in Syria - Bassem Mroue ( AP-Washington Post)
The toppling of Assad has now crippled Hizbullah's ability to bounce back after being dealt a major blow during war with Israel.
The Assad dynasty played a crucial role in empowering Hizbullah, which was founded in the early 1980s by Iranian advisers who came through Syria.
In addition to being a conduit for Iranian weapons, Syria also was a place where Hizbullah trained fighters and manufactured its own weapons.
More IDF Recruits Enlisting in Combat Units - Yoav Zitun ( Ynet News)
The IDF announced Monday that the November-December enlistment figures for combat roles exceeded expectations.
"This recruitment cycle reflects the growing willingness of young people to step up and play an active, meaningful role in the challenges facing the IDF as combat soldiers in various units," the IDF Spokesperson's Unit said.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Jolani Tells the London Times: Syria Won't Be Used as a Launchpad for Attacks on Israel - Samer Al-Atrush
Syria's new leader Mohammed al-Jolani told The Times in an interview that he will not allow the country to be used as a launchpad for attacks against Israel or any other state.
Jolani, who now prefers to be known by his birth name Ahmed al-Shara, warned Israel that it must end its airstrikes in Syria and withdraw from territory it took after Bashar al-Assad fled.
"Israel's justification was the presence of Hizbullah and Iranian militias, so that justification is gone," he said.
"We are committed to the 1974 agreement and we are prepared to return the UN [monitors]," Shara said. "We do not want any conflict whether with Israel or anyone else....The Syrian people need a break, and the strikes must end and Israel has to pull back to its previous positions."
His group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is designated as a terrorist group by the U.S. and Britain. Shara had a $10 million bounty placed on his head by the U.S.
Shara said there would be an amnesty for all Syrians except those with blood on their hands, or who took part in the old regime's torture. He said his main concern was to stabilize the country and rebuild it ahead of any elections, which he called "somewhat far-fetched now."
"Half the population is out of the country and many don't have papers," he said. "We need to bring the people back from neighboring countries and Turkey, and Europe." (The Times-UK)
- Syria's Collapse and Israeli Attacks Leave Iran Exposed - Susannah George
A week of punishing Israeli airstrikes to destroy vast amounts of Syrian military infrastructure peeled away another layer of Iranian defenses in the region, leaving Tehran more exposed than it has been in decades, experts said. Syria's former radar systems could have provided Iran with early warnings of an Israeli attack, said Yoram Schweitzer, a former Israeli intelligence officer, while its advanced Russian air defenses were a "constraining factor" for Israel's maneuverability in the area, according to Gregory Brew, an Iran analyst at the Eurasia Group.
"Israel now has a clear route to Iran and will likely continue to have one for the foreseeable future," Brew said. "Iran was exposed already, and the October strikes proved that," Brew added, referring to Israeli attacks that hit some of the country's most sensitive military sites.
Even before Assad was toppled, Israel carried out more than 100 airstrikes on Syrian territory since October 2023, killing at least 24 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers.
(Washington Post)
- Two Arrested in Connection with Fatal Drone Attack on U.S. Troops in Jordan - Perry Stein
Two men have been arrested in connection with a drone attack on Jan. 28 that killed three U.S. troops and injured more than 40 others at a military base in Jordan.
Mahdi Mohammad Sadeghi, an Iranian American citizen living in Massachusetts, was arrested Monday. Mohammad Abedini, an Iranian citizen, was arrested in Italy. The two men are accused of executing a long-running scheme for more than a decade to circumvent American export laws, which restrict exports to Iran.
Items funneled to Iran from a Massachusetts company where Sadeghi worked were
used to make at least one of the drones used in the deadly attack in Jordan.
(Washington Post)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- PA Security Forces Move Against Terrorists in West Bank - Einav Halabi
After nearly a decade of inaction, Palestinian security forces intensified operations to regain control of the Jenin refugee camp on Monday. Palestinian reports say heavy exchanges of gunfire have left seven terrorists injured. PA security officials announced the capture of the main operations center of the Jenin Brigade, affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the arrest of 12 terror operatives.
Members of the Jenin Brigade have been given an ultimatum to surrender their weapons or face arrest and prosecution for weapons trafficking and collaboration with foreign entities like Iran and Hamas.
Akram Rajoub, who served as governor of Jenin until last year, said, "This is a group of young men - only God knows who armed them and gave them money. They want to dictate to the security forces how to confront Israel and in what way," he said.
The operation in Jenin was launched after terrorists seized two PA security vehicles and paraded them through the streets of the camp last week draped in Hamas and PIJ flags.
(Ynet News)
- Israel to Close Dublin Embassy - Adi Nirman
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar ordered the closure of Israel's embassy in Ireland on Sunday in response to what he characterized as the Irish government's "extreme anti-Israel policies." Last week, Ireland announced it would join South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, which accuses Israel of genocide.
"Ireland's antisemitic actions and rhetoric against Israel are rooted in delegitimization and demonization of the Jewish state and reflect clear double standards," Sa'ar said. "Ireland has crossed all red lines in its treatment of Israel. We will redirect our resources toward advancing bilateral relations with countries based on priorities that reflect how different nations relate to Israel." (Israel Hayom)
- Israel Continues to Target Syrian Weaponry on Sunday
Israeli fighter jets on Sunday targeted missile launchers in the Hama area of Syria, weapons depots in Tartus, and radars at Deir Ezzor military airport.
(Syrian Observatory for Human Rights)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Syria
- Developments in Syria - Significance for Israel - Dr. Carmit Valensi
As a central component of the Axis of Resistance, the Assad regime had posed a major strategic threat to Israel. Hizbullah's force-building was made possible from Syrian territory.
The military capabilities of the various rebel groups are far inferior to those of Iran and its proxies. The main adversary of these rebels is the Assad-Iran-Hizbullah axis. As a result, Israel is unlikely to be a top priority for these groups in the near future.
Moreover, the rebels in the border area with Israel do not belong to or identify with the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham but rather are remnants of the Free Syrian Army and Druze forces, which have had a positive attitude toward Israel and with whom Israel has been able to work in the past.
Israel could explore providing "soft" aid to favorable elements in Syria, inspired by the "Good Neighbor" Initiative from 2016 to 2018 when Israel provided medical aid and food to Syrians during the civil war. Some of the key contacts are still available.
The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served as a senior advisor in IDF Intelligence and as an analyst at the IDF's Dado Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies.
(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
- New Syrian Leader Al-Jolani Poses Challenge for Israel - Prof. Eyal Zisser
In recent decades, Syria wasn't merely a connecting link between Tehran, Baghdad, Gaza, and Beirut - through which Iranian weapons flowed to Hamas and Hizbullah - it was actually the initiator and driving force behind this axis. Assad's Syria saw its role as a forward base in the campaign against Israel.
Today, Syria's new leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a former ISIS operative and leader of the Levant Liberation Front, speaks in tones pleasing to Western and even Israeli ears, claiming he shouldn't be judged by his actions as a young man and that his only desire is to build a new Syria and ensure its people can earn a living with dignity.
Time will tell whether he's a wolf in sheep's clothing or whether this former jihadist has genuinely transformed. Meanwhile, his vision for Syria is becoming clearer - an Islamic state governed by religious law.
The writer is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University. (Israel Hayom)
- What Al-Jolani's Past Can Reveal about Syria's Future - Jonathan Spyer
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed Shara/Abu Mohammed al-Jolani is now the de facto ruler in Damascus. Western media and governments are weighing his every utterance in an effort to understand what may lie in Syria's future. Has he moderated? Is he still a jihadi? But there is a better way to try and grasp what may now lie ahead. In the period between 2017 and 2024, al-Jolani and his movement were the de facto rulers of Idleb province. Observation of how they governed there is likely to yield clues.
Israeli researcher and former IDF military intelligence officer Alex Grinberg has made a close study of HTS's seven-year experiment at governance in Idleb. HTS did not go in for the mad excesses of their rival jihadis in the Islamic State. There was no enslavement of non-Muslim women, none of the lurid insanity associated with IS.
On the other hand, what was established was a repressive, authoritarian statelet ruled in accordance with Islamic Sharia law. Women were required to wear the hijab, music and alcohol were banned. No opposition was permitted to the edicts of HTS. Non-Muslims and women were not allowed to be in the representative bodies established. In al-Jolani's prisons, incarceration without trial and the practice of torture were routine. There is every reason to believe that the system developed in Idleb will now be installed throughout the country.
HTS's highest religious authority is Abd al-Rahim Atoun, who called the Oct. 7 attacks "the greatest act of Islam in this era." Atoun compares HTS's march from Idleb to Damascus to the Oct. 7 attacks, and requests "the Almighty to disgrace the Jews, suppress them, and curse them and those who support and back them."
The government of Israel has been engaged in recent days in preventing the emergent Islamist regime in Damascus from possessing any but the most rudimentary military capacity. Some have questioned the motivation for this action. Yet Israel's decision to disarm HTS as far as is possible is likely to yet be considered prescient.
(Spectator-UK)
Iran
- Can Israel Save the World from a Nuclear Iran? - Yaakov Katz
For the last 20 years, two primary fears have held Israel back from launching a preemptive military strike to eliminate Iran's nuclear program. The first was a concern that a military strike would not succeed. Senior defense officials in Israel and the West warned that the Israeli Air Force could not reach Iran, could not overcome the advanced Russian air defense systems that surrounded its strategic facilities, and could not penetrate some of the nuclear installations, which are buried deep underground beneath layers of thick concrete and steel.
The second fear was the practical price Israel would pay if it attacked. Iran is believed to have about 2,500 long-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Israel; Hizbullah, until recently, had an arsenal of 150,000 missiles; Hamas had around 40,000 and the Houthis in Yemen have hundreds. Lastly, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, until recently, was in possession of hundreds of Scud missiles and several tons of chemical weapons.
These fears are no longer relevant. In October, more than 100 Israeli Air Force aircraft flew more than 2,000 km. and struck more than 20 targets throughout Iran, including Iran's S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, knocking out Iran's ability to defend itself and repel a future attack. All this means Iran is today vulnerable.
Israel, whether on its own or in coordination with the U.S., has a unique opportunity to remove the primary threat that it has warned about for more than 20 years - Iran's nuclear program.
This window of opportunity is not unlimited. If Israel or the U.S. fail to act, Iran will take the final steps and build a nuclear bomb.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute. (Newsweek)
Ireland
- "Anti-Zionism" Has Become the New Antisemitism in Ireland - Oliver Sears
In Ireland, my home for almost forty years, vehement opposition to Israel and Zionism, in particular, has seen demonstrations with expressions that are antisemitic, including the flying of Hamas and PFLP flags and chants that hurl invective at all Jews, not just Israelis.
Niall Holohan, a former high ranking Irish diplomat, explained Ireland's especially vocal pro-Palestinian stance. He claims that Ireland's tiny community of 2,500 Jews has "given us a freer hand to take what we consider a more principled position." This is an endorsement of the worst kind of antisemitic conspiracy theory - that Jews act as a cabal influencing governments - and that Ireland with its minuscule Jewish population is "freer" to govern itself independently.
The writer is founder of Holocaust Awareness Ireland. (Fathom-BICOM)
- How Ireland Declared Diplomatic War on Israel - Ian O'Doherty
Israel decided on Sunday to close its embassy in Dublin, reflecting the growing resentment and genuine confusion felt by many in Jerusalem about what they see as Ireland's unfairly pro-Palestinian position since October 7.
Ireland's approach to international law was the straw that broke the camel's back for Israel. Ireland, alongside that other titan of human rights and international law, South Africa, announced they would petition the International Court of Justice to "broaden" the terms of genocide so that it can be more easily applied to Israel's military actions in Gaza.
Ireland's deputy prime minister and foreign minister Micheal Martin argues that the ICJ's definition of genocide isn't as evolved as the Irish one. But does he really expect the world to accept the dismally fuzzy logic which proclaims any conflict with civilian casualties is a genocide? Or perhaps is it only a genocide when Jews are involved in the fighting? After all, Ireland has been silent about any apparent "genocide" in Syria, Sudan, Yemen and elsewhere where the actual mass slaughter of civilians has been taking place.
Then there is the added insult that by expanding the meaning of genocide, you're ultimately minimizing the gravity of the Holocaust, which is where the word "genocide" was born.
The Irish government decided to finally drop any pretense of neutrality and effectively declared diplomatic war with Israel. There has been a hostility to Israel that is genuinely unprecedented in Irish political life. During last month's pre-election leader's debate, all ten party leaders agreed with each other on the need to boycott Israel.
Soon we will be diplomatically separated from a country which should be our strongest ally in the region. Moreover, we need Israeli chip technology more than Israel needs Irish butter. The Irish government is playing a jaw-droppingly bad long-term game.
The writer is an opinion columnist for the Irish Independent.
(Spectator-UK)
The Gaza War
- Will Hamas Be Emboldened by the Hostage Deal? - Lt.-Col. (res.) Maurice Hirsch
During the last year, Israel has substantially progressed in dismantling Hamas. The goal of freeing the hostages has, however, remained elusive. Of the 250 hostages taken during the massacre, some were released in return for a few days of ceasefire and the release of Palestinian terrorists, some were freed in daring IDF operations, others were murdered in captivity by the terrorists. As of Dec. 15, 2024, the terrorists continued to hold 100 people hostage, of whom an estimated 60 are still alive.
The Palestinian terrorists who participated in the Oct. 7 massacre and those who are today holding the hostages are not the product of Hamas alone. Rather, they are the product of three decades of Palestinian Authority brainwashing, hatred of Israel, and dehumanization of Israelis.
Thus, when discussing the future of Gaza, Israel stressed that the PA would play no further role and would not again be allowed to promulgate its hateful indoctrination of Gazans. If the PA returned to governing Gaza, Israel would be condemning itself to suffer the Oct. 7 massacre, sooner or later, over and over again.
While freeing the hostages is, of course, of the utmost importance, the public information about the emerging deal seems to suggest that Hamas will be awarded a substantial prize, with Israel's agreement to cease some of the fighting in Gaza and release hundreds, potentially even thousands, of terrorists, including murderers. The combined effect is that Hamas will continue to play a central governance role and will also be emboldened in Palestinian society as the freer of terrorists.
The war with Hamas is not solely kinetic. It is also a war of perception. Israel must take effective control of the distribution of humanitarian aid to the Gazan population and rethink the consequences of providing the Hamas terrorists with the rewards of forcing Israel to release terrorists.
The writer, Director of the Palestinian Authority Accountability Initiative at the Jerusalem Center, was director of the Military Prosecution in Judea and Samaria. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
Lebanon
- Iran Just Lost Its Last Colonial Settlement in Southern Lebanon - Lenny Ben-David
The Shiite town of Maroun al-Ras in southern Lebanon, near the Israeli communities of Avivim and Yiron, includes "Iran Park" - dedicated to Hizbullah martyrs and to Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani. A statue of Soleimani pointing at Israel one km. away stood atop an observation tower. The park also included a replica of the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, a museum, an obstacle course, a playground, picnic grounds, and a paintball course. The Dome of the Rock replica is unusual since the original sanctuary in Jerusalem is a Sunni shrine.
The 5,000 Lebanese residents of Maroun al-Ras proudly accepted their role as Iran's colonial subjects. Iranian and Hizbullah flags prominently flew over Maroun al-Ras and the Iran Park, and loudspeakers blared the Hizbullah and Iranian anthems. In October 2010, Iranian President Ahmadinejad visited Maroun al-Ras to dedicate the Iran Park.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Maroun al-Ras on April 26, 2023.
On May 15, 2011, tens of thousands of Palestinians arrived in 1,000 buses at Maroun al-Ras's Iran Park to "March to Palestine." IDF snipers were forced to repel the mobs. During Israel's recent operation in southern Lebanon, the Iran Park in Maroun al-Ras was destroyed. This post includes numerous photos of the area.
The writer is a Research and Diplomacy Fellow at the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
The Arab World
- How the Colonial Divisions of the Middle East Are Dissolving - Amb. Freddy Eytan
The Sykes-Picot Agreements signed in 1916 by France and England divided the Middle East arbitrarily. The current situation is the result of the clumsy policy of the West, a misunderstanding of the Arab world and the Islamists, and an indifference to the fate of Israel. The division into zones of influence by France and England did not take into account the local populations. Demographic, socio-cultural, and religious aspects were ignored.
Several Arab tribes found themselves separated and dispersed in different states. The Kurds and the Druze sought in vain a territory, and the Maronite Christians sought alliances.
There was a strengthening of the Alawite minority over the Sunni majority in Syria, and domination of the Sunni minority over the Shi'ite majority in Iraq.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the most important or the only concern in the region. There are real security problems that justify defensible borders on the Golan Heights and in the Jordan Valley. We need to convince European chancelleries of the strategic value of the Jewish state in the defense of the West itself.
Faced with the new geopolitical situation, the IDF will have to maintain its presence in Gaza, in southern Lebanon, and on the heights of Mount Hermon, until the day when Israel wins its case and is finally able to live in absolute security without fearing a new nightmare scenario such as that of Oct. 7.
The writer, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, is a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who was Israel's first ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania. (Jerusalem Post)
Observations:
- It is important to remember that the war did not break out because Israel wanted it. The war is Israel's response to Hamas's barbaric assault on civilian communities on Oct. 7, 2023, and it was Hizbullah that opened fire on northern Israel the day after the attack.
- The outbreak of war was rooted in Iran's ambitions and preparations for Israel's collapse and destruction. To this end, Iran conceived and implemented the "Ring of Fire" around Israel - a coordinated campaign from all fronts conducted by terror movements built with Iranian support with the aim of destroying Israel.
- The war's end must make clear to the world, especially the Muslim world, that radical Islamic movements, both Sunni and Shiite, bring disaster to their people and destruction to their believers. Hizbullah is Iran's most robust proxy; the greater the damage done to Hizbullah, the more Iran is weakened.
- After Iran on two occasions fired hundreds of missiles at Israel, the actual extent of its military power was revealed, and effectively the Iranian strategy collapsed. The Israeli operation on Oct. 26, in which 20 targets in Iran were hit, made clear to the Iranians the price of direct confrontation with Israel and its weakness in the face of the capabilities Israel demonstrated.
- Israel is not operating as in previous wars to achieve "threat postponement" on its borders but based on the understanding that threats must be destroyed (Hamas) or at least drastically reduced in intensity (Hizbullah).
- In Lebanon, no Hizbullah personnel and no Hizbullah infrastructure should remain in the south, which should become a buffer zone mostly without residents and without the presence of any entity threatening Israel. The IDF will oversee this. The buffer zone's purpose is to prevent flat-trajectory fire toward Israeli communities and to push Hizbullah's ground forces beyond the range of executing a surprise Oct. 7-style attack.
- In both Syria and Lebanon, the IDF should employ the same kind of campaign between wars as it did in Syria over the last dozen years to continue degrading Hizbullah's capabilities and not allow it to rebuild.
The writer was national security adviser to the Israeli prime minister and chairman of Israel's National Security Council.
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