DAILY ALERT

Tuesday,
February 4, 2025
In-Depth Issues:

Hamas "Regrouping under Cover of Hostage Releases" - Melanie Swan (Telegraph-UK)
    Hamas has been using hostage release operations to rebuild its forces and map territory within Gaza, Israeli sources say.
    The terror group is deploying more soldiers at each successive handover and conducting reconnaissance with drones that film the ceremonies.
    "Each time they're changing the location of the handover, so they're mapping Gaza, Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gaza Port, so they're building the intelligence," said Ronen Solomon, an Israeli intelligence analyst.
    The Israeli sources claimed that Hamas recruitment efforts had not been as successful as estimated by the U.S. State Department. Israel estimates that only a few hundred new, young and inexperienced recruits have been taken on.
    The quantity of equipment still held by Hamas is also coming to light, with each round of hostage releases showing more arms, including machine guns, anti-tank missiles and drones.



How the IDF Helped Save Lives and Protect Property from LA Wildfires - Ronit Zilberstein (Israel Hayom)
    As devastating wildfires raged across California, a special unit of Israeli soldiers at the IDF Home Front Command headquarters provided vital data analysis that proved instrumental in saving lives and protecting property.
    During American nighttime hours, Israeli analysts conducted comprehensive data processing and prepared detailed operational assessments for the next day's firefighting efforts.
    "We developed a specialized daily portal for all American forces in the field... consolidating all wildfire information in a single platform," said Capt. Keren, who heads research and data at the Home Front Command's Operations Branch.
    "This included detailed mapping of fire zones, educational facilities, and power infrastructure. When the Israeli firefighting delegation arrived on site, they presented American forces with the comprehensive collected data, enabling strategic decision-making."
    "American teams would begin each day with comprehensive situation assessments we had prepared during their overnight hours," said Lt.-Col. Yosef Salem, head of data at the Home Front Command.
    "While the United States possesses significant technological capabilities, the crucial elements of emergency decision-making, information accessibility, and inter-force coordination remain challenging for many international emergency organizations," Capt. Keren explained.
    "They haven't yet reached the technological frontier where Israel excels and has valuable expertise to share."



Trump to View Video of Hamas Atrocities at Witkoff's Urging - Itamar Eichner (Ynet News)
    President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff watched the video of footage filmed by Hamas terrorists during their atrocities in the Oct. 7 massacre and told Trump he must see it for himself to truly understand what had happened on that day.
    Trump will see a shortened version before his meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday.



U.S. Readies New $1 Billion Arms Sale to Israel - Jared Malsin (Wall Street Journal)
    The Trump administration has asked congressional leaders to approve new transfers to Israel of 4,700 1,000-pound bombs, worth $700 million, as well as armored bulldozers built by Caterpillar, worth $300 million.
    The new arms would be paid for from the annual U.S. military aid to Israel.



Swedish Government Says Stockholm Mosque Used by Iran for Spying (Reuters)
    Sweden's Minister for Social Affairs Jakob Forssmed said on Monday that the Swedish Security Service assessed that the Shi'ite Imam Ali Islamic Center in Stockholm was used by Iran as a platform to spy and conduct activities threatening security.



There Is No Moral Equivalence between Those Freed by Hamas and Israel - Danny Cohen (Telegraph-UK)
    The ugly scenes accompanying the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas are intended to project power, control and the promise of future terrorist violence.
    Their masked fighters strut and brandish guns for the cameras to warn they are ready to inflict genocidal terror attacks again if they are given the chance.
    What is unforgivable is the false equivalence made by so many news organizations - including the BBC - between Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
    News outlets across the globe have repeatedly referred to the Palestinians to be released as "hostages." They have equated the victims of a terrorist attack with violent murderers who seek to kill civilians and erase Israel from the map.
    Yet the hundreds of Palestinian prisoners who are set for release have never been hostages, and the majority have been convicted of violent offenses, rightly jailed by the Israeli authorities after due judicial process.
    The writer was the director of BBC Television (2013-15).



Truth vs. Narratives - Marc D. Angel (Jerusalem Post)
    It simply is not true to say - as some Palestinian spokespeople say in their narrative - that the Land of Israel is the historic homeland of Palestinian Arabs.
    It isn't a "Jewish narrative" that Israel is the Jewish homeland; it has been true since biblical times.
    It is true that through nearly 2000 years of exile, Jews prayed facing Jerusalem and yearned for the return to their holy land.
    For there to be peace between Israel and its neighbors, it is essential to seek truth, not "narratives."
    When the Muslim Ottoman Empire controlled the Land of Israel for hundreds of years, the thought never occurred to them to establish Palestine.
    Jerusalem was an old, decrepit city that no one (except Jews) cared very much about.
    Between 1948 and 1967, Jordan controlled the West Bank and the Old City of Jerusalem, while Egypt controlled Gaza. Neither suggested the need for a Palestinian country nor took any steps in the direction of creating a Palestinian state.
    Israel is the only country in the world to have given territory to the Palestinian Arabs.
    The writer is director of the Institute for Jewish Ideas and Ideals, and rabbi emeritus of the Spanish and Portuguese Synagogue of New York City.



News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • Netanyahu Is the First Foreign Leader Invited to the White House under Trump - Shira Rubin
    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington this week as the first foreign leader granted an audience with President Donald Trump. Before departing for Washington on Sunday, Netanyahu said that Israeli military operations in Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen have already "redrawn the map. But I believe that working closely with President Trump, we can redraw it even further and for the better." Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Trump on Tuesday, after holding talks on Monday with the president's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff.
        Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot reported Sunday that in the second phase of the ceasefire-hostage deal, Israel is demanding the exile of Hamas leaders, the demilitarization of Gaza, and the release of all hostages, dead or alive.
        Over the past two weeks, Hamas has released 18 hostages who were abducted on Oct. 7, 2023. Israel has freed more than 580 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, and withdrew its troops from key military positions in Gaza. (Washington Post)
        See also Netanyahu to Discuss "Victory over Hamas" with Trump
    Prior to his departure on Sunday to meet with President Trump at the White House, Prime Minister Netanyahu said: "In this meeting we'll deal with important issues, critical issues facing Israel and our region: victory over Hamas, achieving the release of all our hostages, and dealing with the Iranian terror axis in all its components."  (Prime Minister's Office)
  • Iran Is Developing Plans for Faster, Cruder Atomic Weapon, U.S. Concludes - David E. Sanger
    New intelligence about Iran's nuclear program has convinced American officials that a secret team of the country's scientists is exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon. The intelligence assessment warned that Iranian weapons engineers and scientists were essentially looking for a shortcut that would enable them to turn their growing stockpile of nuclear fuel into a workable weapon in a matter of months.
        New intelligence suggests that as Iran's proxy forces have been eviscerated and its missiles have failed to pierce American and Israeli defenses, its military is seriously exploring new options to deter a U.S. or Israeli attack.
        There is little doubt about Iran's long-running planning to produce an atomic weapon. Documents Israel stole in a raid on a warehouse in Tehran in 2018 described the technical efforts in detail. (New York Times)
  • Report: Iran "Secretly Building Nuclear Missiles that Can Hit Europe" - Joe Barnes
    Iran is developing nuclear missiles with a range of 3,000 km. based on designs handed to the Islamic regime by North Korea, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which has previously exposed details of Tehran's secret uranium enrichment facilities, reported. Two sites camouflaged as communication satellite launch facilities have been used to rush the production of nuclear warheads.
        "The Iranian mullahs are masters of lies, deception and evasion. For over two decades, they have used negotiations and the West's leniency as a means to advance their nuclear weapons program," said Soona Samsami, a U.S. representative of the NCRI. "Tehran has never been as weak and vulnerable as it is today. The desperate Iranian regime is thus speeding up the development of nuclear weapons."
        At the Shahrud missile site, experts have been working on producing a nuclear warhead capable of being fitted to a Ghaem-100 rocket. A second site, situated 70 km. southeast of Semnan, is being used to develop Simorgh missiles. (Telegraph-UK)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Two IDF Soldiers Killed, Eight Injured in Shooting Attack at Samaria Checkpoint - Elisha Ben Kimon
    A Palestinian terrorist opened fire at the Tayasir checkpoint in the northern West Bank on Tuesday, killing two Israeli soldiers and injuring eight others. Soldiers killed the terrorist. Tayasir is part of the area where the IDF has recently expanded operations. (Ynet News-i24News)
        See also 50 Palestinian Terrorists Killed in Samaria since IDF Offensive Started Two Weeks Ago - Emanuel Fabian
    The Israel Defense Forces said Sunday that it has killed over 50 Palestinian terrorists in the northern West Bank since launching a major counterterrorism offensive nearly two weeks ago. Over 35 gunmen were killed in Jenin, Tulkarem, and the Tamun area, while another 15 were killed in drone strikes.
        More than 100 wanted Palestinians have been detained, 40 weapons were seized, and over 80 explosive devices were neutralized. 23 buildings in the Jenin refugee camp used by terror operatives were demolished. Hundreds of buildings in Jenin have been scanned, with troops locating bomb-making labs, caches of weapons, and command centers. (Times of Israel)
        See also IDF Using More Destructive Power in West Bank Operations - Seth J. Frantzman
    A series of explosions in Jenin in the northern West Bank on Saturday represent a new way of war in the territory for the IDF. People seeing the videos of the explosions were reminded of Gaza, with their effect spreading far beyond Jenin.
        Before Oct. 7, 2023, the IDF conducted precision strikes that often were so precise people might not have even known they happened. However, the war against Hamas and Hizbullah has shifted the dynamic to using more destructive power in West Bank operations. (Jerusalem Post)
  • Freed Hostage Keith Siegal's Ordeal - Lior Ohana
    American-Israeli Keith Siegel, 65, who was released from Gaza on Saturday, was tortured physically and emotionally, starved, and held in inhuman conditions, his family said on Monday. "My father passed 484 days knowing each moment could be his last, and that the terrorists could execute him if the military pressure increased, as he knew had been the fate of others among the captives," said his daughter Shir. (Ynet News)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

    Gaza

  • America's Middle East Upheaval: Assessing Egypt and Jordan's Opposition to Trump's Gaza Refugee Plan - Dr. Dan Diker and Yoni Ben Menachem
    Jordan's King Abdullah II and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi have expressed firm opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to resettle Palestinians from Gaza in their countries. Egypt and Jordan rely heavily on annual U.S. economic and military aid. Trump's recent decision to cut off foreign aid to Jordan sends a powerful message to these countries and others in the region.
        On Jan. 28, the London-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported that Egypt is adopting a "strategic patience" strategy - waiting and attempting to manage the crisis through careful calculations behind closed doors. Egypt understands that any direct confrontation with Trump could damage its political and economic ties with the U.S.
        Senior Israeli political and military officials estimate that the Egyptian leadership is relying on widespread Palestinian rejection, total Arab rejection, and hoping that over time the administration's direction may change. Moreover, Hamas and the PA may join forces to incite the Palestinian public against Trump's plan.
        Dr. Dan Diker is President of the Jerusalem Center. Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center.  (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
  • Preventing Hamas from Rebuilding - Amb. Gilad Erdan
    Hamas still has 20,000 fighters and dozens of miles of tunnels in Gaza. It is already working to rebuild its capabilities and train a new generation of terrorists. Rebuilding Gaza means rebuilding Hamas. Therefore, any reconstruction of Gaza under Hamas rule must be limited to the bare minimum.
        Every mechanism established to monitor materials entering Gaza has failed in the past and will fail again in preventing Hamas from using them to restore its military capabilities. Israel and the U.S. must send a clear message to the Arab world: As long as Hamas controls Gaza, another war is only a matter of time and any investment in reconstruction will be wasted.
        We must also be wary of the illusion of a "technocratic government" in Gaza. As long as Hamas remains the dominant armed force, it will ultimately control any civilian authority established in Gaza.
        The Palestinian Authority (PA) cannot be the solution either. Not only does the PA continue to pay salaries to terrorists and fail to prevent attacks from its territory, it is also clear that just as Hamas expelled the PA from Gaza in 2007, the same would happen again if the PA were entrusted with security responsibilities there.
        Since no other entity aside from Israel will be willing to fight Hamas over the long term, only a temporary Israeli military-civil administration in Gaza can dismantle Hamas's armed control and lay the groundwork for a local civilian alternative that could gain strength in the future.
        Preventing reconstruction will also send a clear message to Gaza's population that as long as Hamas remains in power and committed to terrorism, there is no future for the territory. Additionally, it will signal to Islamist terrorist supporters, who were emboldened by Hamas's recent hostage deal, that there is a heavy price to be paid for launching murderous attacks against Israel.
        The writer is a former Israeli ambassador to the UN and the U.S.  (Israel Hayom)
  • Why The Palestinian Authority Will Not Be Able to Control Gaza - Khaled Abu Toameh
    Qatar and Egypt are now spearheading efforts to bring the Palestinian Authority (PA) back to Gaza and are apparently trying to persuade the U.S. administration to back the idea. If the PA has been unable to rein in dozens of gunmen in the West Bank, how can anyone expect it to take control of Gaza, where thousands of terrorists from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad continue to operate? In the eyes of Hamas and many Palestinians in Gaza, Mahmoud Abbas and the PA are traitors, mainly because they maintain security coordination with Israel in the West Bank.
        A few weeks ago, the PA launched a major security operation against Iran-backed armed groups in Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank. After 40 days, the PA and the gunmen reached an agreement whereby the PA security forces would stop pursuing the gunmen in the camp and release detainees, thereby signaling the failure of the PA's security operation.
        No Arab country will invest in or get involved in Gaza as long as Iran's Islamist proxies continue to dominate it. Given the recent return of hundreds of convicted terrorists released from Israeli prisons to the streets in exchange for hostages, the possibility of another Oct. 7-style atrocity against Israelis is still all too real.
        There is only one viable way to address Gaza's problems: discard Qatar as a supposedly honest broker (it is not), designate the Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization (it is), disarm all the terrorist groups, and oust Hamas completely from power.
        The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.  (Gatestone Institute)


  • U.S.-Israel Relations

  • Trump and Netanyahu Can Find Common Ground in a Policy of Restoring Israeli Strength and American Deterrence. - David Wurmser
    As Prime Minister Netanyahu meets President Trump this week, the two leaders have a chance to set the contours of a new strategic framework. Since launching its response to the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas, Israel has redefined the dynamics of the Middle East. It has contained the plague of Iranian power, which spread throughout the region for nearly five decades, and established itself as a regional power - perhaps one without a clear rival.
        The Trump administration plans to support these developments via a novel foreign-policy framework: The U.S. will reduce its global footprint, empower its allies and enhance its own strength.
        For most of the past 16 years, previous administrations complicated and undermined Israel's position in the Middle East. Their fear of escalation and entanglement - and belief that the region's most radical ideologies could be domesticated - led them to seek a series of ceasefires that spared Israel's mortal enemies, left conflicts to fester, and continually shackled the Jewish state. American efforts to tether Israel have restricted Israel's ability to vanquish its enemies.
        In the Middle East, no ally is identified as a symbol of the West more than Israel, nor is any country as capable of fighting and defending itself even without American boots on the ground.
        The writer is a senior scholar at the Center for Security Policy.  (Wall Street Journal)
  • The Next U.S.-Israel Military-Assistance Agreement - Amb. Daniel B. Shapiro
    The current 10-year U.S.-Israel military-assistance Memorandum of Understanding, which I helped negotiate while serving as U.S. Ambassador to Israel, runs through fiscal 2028. It provides Israel with $3.3 billion in foreign military financing and $500 million for missile defense programs. A new 10-year MOU would start in fiscal 2029, less than four years away.
        We started negotiating the current MOU following President Obama's visit to Israel in March 2013, and took until September 2016 to sign it. Both sides agreed it was crucial to sign two years before the previous MOU expired. That enabled the Israel Defense Forces to make decisions on major acquisitions with realistic funding projections - including on additional F-35 aircraft.
        The writer, U.S. Ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017, served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy.  (Defense One)


  • Israel and Saudi Arabia

  • Will the Ceasefire Lead to Normalization with Saudi Arabia? - Yoel Guzansky and Ilan Zalayat
    Since the war began, Saudi Arabia has intensified its tone toward Israel, and public messages from Riyadh have become critical, even venomous. In November, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman accused Israel of committing "collective genocide" against Palestinians in Gaza.
        The Saudis have also become defenders of the Palestinian cause as they had never been before, seeking to capitalize on the anti-Israeli sentiment in the region. They have initiated an international "alliance" aimed at promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state.
        They want to be credited with the eventual establishment of a Palestinian state. Since the war began, they have publicly linked normalization with Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state, a stance it had not taken before the war.
        Yoel Guzansky is a senior researcher at INSS, where Ilan Zalayat is a research associate.  (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)


  • The Arab World

  • Regime Change in Syria Has Iraqi Factions Backtracking on Push for U.S. Withdrawal - Qassim Abdul-Zahra
    The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to reconsider their push for U.S. forces to exit the country, multiple Iraqi and American officials said. The U.S. and Iraq announced an agreement last year to wind down the military mission in Iraq of an American-led coalition fighting the Islamic State group by September 2025. Political and armed factions linked to Iran had been among the loudest voices calling for a U.S. exit from Iraq.
        When the agreement was reached to end the coalition's mission in Iraq, Iraqi political leaders said the threat of IS was under control and they no longer needed Washington's help to beat back the remaining cells. But the fall of Assad at the hands of Sunni Islamist rebels in December left some Iran-allied groups in Iraq feeling vulnerable, fearing IS could take advantage of the security vacuum to stage a comeback. (AP)
Observations:

  • If a Palestinian state were to be established, it would almost certainly find itself in armed conflict with Israel, either as a belligerent party or as a passive victim unable to exert full sovereignty within its borders and restrain terrorist groups like Hamas.
  • Past acts of goodwill on the Israeli side have not been reciprocated, and in fact have often been followed by increased levels of violence. Shortly after the unsuccessful Camp David Summit in 2000, Yasir Arafat launched the second intifada. After Ariel Sharon unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in 2005, Hamas overthrew the Palestinian Authority and immediately began launching rockets at Israel. The Oct. 7 massacre came at a period of relative calm in Gaza, during which Qatari cash was allowed to flow in and record numbers of guest workers could commute from Gaza to Israel.
  • A second reason to be pessimistic about territorial concessions to the Palestinians is Palestinian public opinion. The Palestinian education system from a very early age teaches violent antisemitism, encourages terrorism, and glorifies martyrdom. There is ample, immediate evidence of extreme and pro-terror views throughout Palestinian society.
  • Surveys since 2000 published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research reveal a society where extremists are a firm majority, where the desire to extinguish Israel and all Jewish presence from historical Palestine is ubiquitous, and where the primary driver of these attitudes isn't past wrongs that the Palestinians suffered from Israel, but religious fundamentalism and an eliminationist liberation theology.
  • While Western analysts often emphasize that one must distinguish between Hamas and the Palestinian people, at the ideological level the distinction is all but fiction. Hamas's ideology and behavior are an authentic expression of Palestinian nationalism and Palestinian national aspirations today.
  • Because much of the local Palestinian population is aligned with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, or other jihadist organizations, even if Israel withdrew from most of the West Bank, and even if the unpopular Palestinian Authority (or its successor) sincerely tried to retain peaceful relations with Israel, without the IDF's presence, the Palestinian entity's peaceful government would be overthrown or would give way to anarchy from local jihadist militias.

    Rafi DeMogge is the pseudonym of an Israel-based author and researcher who writes on political demography.

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