DAILY ALERT

Tuesday,
February 11, 2025
In-Depth Issues:

Hamas Avoids Collapse of Ceasefire Deal but Seeks Concessions in Phase II - Ron Ben-Yishai (Ynet News)
    Hamas' decision to halt the scheduled hostage release on Saturday appears to be a pressure tactic aimed at pushing Israel into advancing negotiations for the second phase of the hostage-ceasefire deal.
    Hamas is likely not looking to collapse the agreement but rather to extract concessions from Israel.
    Israel cannot afford to concede to Hamas's demands beyond what is already outlined in the agreement, as doing so would invite continuous extortion throughout the negotiation process, further delaying hostage releases.



Video: Trump's Bold Plan for Gaza and the Middle East - Former U.S. Special Envoy Jason Greenblatt interviewed by Dr. Dan Diker (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
    Jason Greenblatt, former Special Envoy to the Middle East under President Trump, discusses the failures of traditional diplomacy and the need for innovative solutions.
    Greenblatt highlights Trump's pragmatic approach to Gaza, emphasizing the necessity of addressing Hamas before any political agreements can be reached.
    He also sheds light on Trump's strong ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and how these relationships could reshape the region's future.



Netanyahu, Trump Effigies Paraded in Cages through Tehran - Lior Ben Ari (Ynet News)
    Tens of thousands of Iranians on Monday marked the 46th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, with celebrations featuring effigies of President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu depicted as prisoners in a cage.
    Thousands of demonstrators marched through Tehran chanting "Death to America" and "Death to Israel."
    A delegation from Hamas, led by senior official Khalil al-Hayya, attended the event.



Syria Accuses Hizbullah of Attacks, Sponsoring Cross-Border Smuggling (AFP)
    The new Syrian authorities said Monday that Lebanon's Hizbullah has launched attacks on Syrian security forces and is sponsoring cross-border smuggling gangs.
    Lt.-Col. Moayed al-Salama said, "Most smuggling gangs on the Lebanese border are affiliated with the Hizbullah militia, whose presence now poses a threat at the Syrian border because it sponsors drug and weapon smugglers."
    "We have developed a comprehensive plan to fully control the borders."
    Salama said Syrian forces seized "farms, warehouses and factories for the production and packaging of hashish and captagon pills."
    They also found presses that specialized in printing counterfeit currency.



IDF Attacks Tunnel between Syria and Lebanon Used by Hizbullah to Transfer Arms - Elisha Ben Kimon (Ynet News)
    The Israel Air Force struck an underground tunnel between Syria and Lebanon that was used by Hizbullah to smuggle weapons, the IDF said Sunday.
    The IAF also struck several Hizbullah sites containing munitions and rocket launchers in Lebanese territory.
    The IDF said it "will operate to prevent any attempt of rearmament" by Hizbullah.



After 18 Months, IDF to Allow Residents of Northern Israel to Return Home (Ynet News)
    The IDF decided on Sunday to lift restrictions on residents returning to their homes in northern Israel starting March 1, nearly a year and a half after they were evacuated due to Hizbullah attacks.



44 Percent of Young Gazans Considered Emigrating Even Before the War - Itamar Marcus (Jerusalem Post)
    A poll taken just prior to the war by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that 44% of Gazan youth aged 18-29 were considering emigrating, while 31% of the entire population considered emigrating.
    The writer is director of Palestinian Media Watch.



Freed Israeli Hostage Faces Complex Surgery to Restore Paralyzed Hand - Dr. Itay Gal (Jerusalem Post)
    Romi Gonen, 23, who was shot in the hand at the Nova music festival on Oct. 7, will undergo a lengthy and intricate operation in an attempt to restore the function of her hand which was paralyzed and untreated for 471 days, her mother revealed on Monday.



Palestinian Authority Restructures "Pay-for-Slay" Policy for Terrorists (Jerusalem Post)
    Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas issued an order on Monday to restructure laws and regulations related to paying families of Palestinians linked with terrorist activity, known as "pay for slay," according to Palestinian news agency WAFA.
    Families previously benefiting from the former system will now be subject to the same eligibility criteria as other families enrolled in social protection and welfare programs for Palestinian families in need.



Gazans Need the Freedom to Leave - Joseph Epstein (Newsweek)
    It's unclear whether President Trump's plan for Gaza is serious or setting the stage for negotiations, but he makes some good points. Most importantly, Palestinians who want to leave demolished Gaza should have the right to do so.
    Over the past 15 years, conflicts in Syria and Ukraine alone created around 14 million refugees living mainly in Europe. Millions more came from Afghanistan and Sudan.
    Yet while these millions were accepted by the international community and resettled, Gazans have been expected to build new lives amid the rubble.
    The writer is a research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.



Who Really Wants "Ethnic Cleansing" in the Middle East? - Brendan O'Neill (Spiked-UK)
    A new definition of chutzpah is people thinking they can spend 16 months crying "Crush the Zionist entity!" and then wring their hands over the threat of "ethnic cleansing."
    It's an activist class consumed by a burning hatred for the very idea of a Jewish homeland thinking it can lecture its opponents on the importance of respecting other people's homelands.
    I can stomach some hypocrisy, but I draw the line at pontifications on "forced removal" from a political set that dreams of removing the Jewish State from the family of nations.
    We need to take down the idea that Trump has unforgivably put "ethnic cleansing" on to the agenda for the Middle East, for the truth is that the West's influential Israel-loathers did that long ago.



News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • Trump Says "All Hell Is Going to Break Out" If Hamas Doesn't Release All Hostages by Saturday - Kevin Liptak
    After Hamas threatened to postpone the next hostage release scheduled to take place on Saturday, President Donald Trump said Monday, "As far as I'm concerned, if all of the hostages aren't returned by Saturday at 12 o'clock...I would say, cancel [the ceasefire deal] and all bets are off....If they're not returned - all of them, not in drips and drabs, not two and one and three and four and two...all hell is going to break out."
        When asked if Palestinians would have a right to return to Gaza under his plan, Trump told Fox News, "No, they wouldn't. Because they will have much better housing. Much better - in other words, I'm talking about building a permanent place for them."
        Trump told reporters on Sunday, "I think that it's a big mistake to allow people - the Palestinians, or the people living in Gaza - to go back yet another time, and we don't want Hamas going back....We're going to bring stability to the Middle East."  (CNN)
        See also Hamas Suspends Israeli Hostage Releases - Yuval Barnea
    Hamas announced on Monday that it is canceling the release of hostages on Feb. 15 until further notice, claiming that Israel is violating the ceasefire agreement. An Israeli official told the Jerusalem Post that Hamas's allegations of Israeli violations are "fake."  (Jerusalem Post)
        See also below Observations - Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Hamas Is "Pure Evil," "Needs to Be Eradicated" (U.S. State Department)
  • Hizbullah Compensation for War Damage Described as Stingy or Slow - Malaika Kanaaneh Tapper
    Hizbullah, long Lebanon's most powerful political and military force, is reeling from its worst ever defeat. In more than a year of conflict before a ceasefire in November, Israel not only killed thousands of fighters and decimated its senior leadership, but caused enormous destruction in Shia-majority communities from which Hizbullah draws support. The fall of ally Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria dealt another blow, cutting off vital supply chains between Hizbullah and its patron Iran.
        According to pro-Hizbullah daily al-Akhbar, the party has distributed $400 million in compensation payments to 140,000 people. Those who lost their entire homes receive $12,000 to $14,000, meant to cover a year of rent elsewhere and destroyed furniture. But in the Hizbullah heartlands of the Bekaa Valley, southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs, people described stingy or slow practices in appraising damage and compensating them.
        The war caused at least $3.4 billion in physical damage, according to the World Bank. Many say that Hizbullah and its patron Iran lack the means to lead reconstruction this time. (Financial Times-UK)
  • At USAID, Funding for Terror-Tied Groups and Internal Hostility toward Israel Goes Back Years - Adam Kredo
    Current and former U.S. officials who worked closely with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) say they watched for years as it funneled millions of dollars to anti-Israel advocacy groups and entities linked to terrorism. "For those who believe in a strong U.S.-Israel relationship, elements of USAID have been problematic for years," said a former State Department official who worked with USAID during the Biden administration. "There was even a lack of embarrassment among some USAID staffers about being associated with terrorist organizations."
        In November 2022, USAID awarded $100,000 to a Palestinian activist group whose leaders hailed the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a designated terror group. Just before Hamas's Oct. 7 assault on Israel, USAID handed $900,000 to a terror charity in Gaza involved with the son of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
        "It's more than just problematic grants to anti-Israel organizations," the former official said. "It's also their role in the internal approval processes and statements within the administration. There's an entire bureaucratic process they're a part of. They carry out their obstructionist ideology on that front as well."  (Washington Free Beacon)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Hostages Faced Severe Torture in Hamas Captivity
    Hostages Ohad Ben-Ami, Or Levy, and Eli Sharabi, who were released from Gaza on Saturday, endured severe torture under Hamas captivity, Israel's Channel 11 reported. Their captors interrogated them using brutal physical abuse. They were choked, bound, gagged with cloth to the point of suffocation, hung upside down, and burned with a hot object. They were deliberately starved, receiving only a rotten pita every few days, which they had to share with other hostages.
        One of the freed hostages revealed he had been chained for 15 months. "I was shackled inside a dark tunnel, with no air or light. I couldn't walk or stand, and only before my release did my captors remove the chains, forcing me to learn to walk again," his family told Channel 12.
        At times the captors ate in front of the hostages and denied them food, and sometimes forced the hostages to choose who would eat and who wouldn't. The hostages were only able to bathe once every few months and remained barefoot throughout their captivity. (Ha'aretz)
  • Netanyahu: President Trump Came with a Completely Different Vision for "the Day after" in Gaza
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the Israeli Cabinet on Monday: "I have just returned from an historic visit in Washington with President Trump....President Trump commended all of our achievements, especially the breaking of the Iranian axis."
        "We agreed that all of the objectives that we set for the war must be completed: The elimination of Hamas, the return of all of our hostages, ensuring that Gaza never again constitutes a threat to Israel, returning all of the residents in both north and south, and, of course, preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons."
        "President Trump came with a completely different vision [for 'the day after' in Gaza], much better for the State of Israel, a revolutionary and creative vision, which we are discussing. He is very determined to carry it out. This also opens many possibilities before us."  (Prime Minister's Office)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

    The Gaza War

  • Why Hamas Should Heed President Trump's Warnings - Dr. Dan Diker and Yoni Ben Menachem
    The Israeli Security Cabinet meeting on Feb. 11 will discuss the second stage of the hostage-for-terrorist deal with Hamas and Israel's red lines in those negotiations. Those red lines, which were agreed upon with President Trump during Netanyahu's Washington visit, include the return of all the hostages, the complete demilitarization of Gaza, and the deportation of the Hamas military leadership to destinations abroad.
        Hamas would be well advised to heed Trump's warnings. Trump has publicly endorsed Israel's right to continue its war to defeat Hamas and affiliated jihadi groups such as Islamic Jihad and other armed local clans. Hamas has already rejected Israel's redlines out of hand. It is well understood in Jerusalem and Washington that Hamas's rejection will prevent the completion of stage two of the ceasefire agreement.
        Additionally, Washington's intentions to pressure Hamas via its intermediaries in Qatar and Egypt will most likely fail. This imminent collision has left a small interim window in which to receive additional hostages for the return of additional terrorists in order to delay an inevitable clash with Hamas.
        President Trump's declarations to Hamas are far more than mere rhetoric. These are concrete intentions backed by Israeli military readiness and American-Israeli coordination.
        Dr. Dan Diker is President of the Jerusalem Center. Yoni Ben Menachem, a veteran Arab affairs and diplomatic commentator for Israel Radio and Television, is a senior Middle East analyst for the Jerusalem Center. (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
  • The Unfolding Horror of Hamas in Gaza - Dr. Fiamma Nirenstein
    Israeli hostages Eli Sharabi, Ohad Ben Ami and Or Levy, freed on Feb. 8 from Hamas captivity, emerged as specters of their former selves - emaciated, pale, and visibly broken - as Hamas paraded them before the cameras.
        Sharabi learned from his captors that his older brother, Yossi, also a hostage, had been murdered in captivity. Upon his return to Israel, he learned that his wife and two daughters were murdered on Oct. 7. Ben Ami's mother lamented that he now looked like an 80-year-old man. Or Levy had been covered in his wife's blood at the Nova music festival, where she was murdered. This latest group underscores that Hamas is an embodiment of cruelty at its most extreme. For Israel, the urgency to eliminate Hamas has only intensified.
        The writer, a fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, served as vice president of the Committee on Foreign Affairs in the Italian Chamber of Deputies.  (JNS)


  • President Trump's Gaza Plan

  • Is Trump's Gaza Plan Utopian? - Amb. Freddy Eytan
    The international community keeps repeating the same empty slogans about the creation of a Palestinian state, without admitting that all the negotiations and signed agreements have never resulted in a viable and definitive peace. On the contrary, they have strengthened the refusal front and encouraged Islamist terrorism.
        The unbearable images of the three Israeli hostages who appeared horribly thin on Feb. 8 alongside Hamas terrorists clearly demonstrate the cruel face of the Palestinian organization. How then can we entrust power in Gaza to criminals, to a gang of murderers? The main thing is to ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to the Jewish state.
        At the moment, the Trump plan seems utopian and unrealizable for many reasons, but we should study it seriously because there are no other credible solutions. Until now, wars, terrorism, boycotts, sanctions, and diktats have achieved nothing; on the contrary, they have made the situation worse.
        Let us recall that the opening of the American embassy in Jerusalem - by a historic decision of Donald Trump - had also provoked a general outcry, and since 2018 has been functioning perfectly. Its transfer from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem has also erased the annex of the famous UN Resolution 181, which envisaged the internationalization of the Holy City.
        The writer, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, is a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who was Israel's first ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania.  (Israel Hayom)
  • Trump's Gaza Plan Could Be Just What the Middle East Needs - Yardena Schwartz
    Considering the last century of failed efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict - with every two-state solution rejected by Palestinian leaders, as far back as 1937 - President Trump's shock to the system might be precisely what that system needs.
        The foreign ministers of five Arab countries, including Egypt and Jordan, sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio protesting the relocation plan. What those Arab officials and so many others fail to acknowledge is that every time a state has been offered to Palestinian leaders, they have vehemently rejected it. Also ignored is the fact that the very countries claiming that Palestinians must remain in Gaza are the same countries whose failed 1948 war against Israel led Palestinians to become refugees in Gaza.
        Since Oct. 7, and the revelation that most Palestinians supported the massacre, many Israelis who once believed in the two-state solution no longer can. Now, amidst a ceasefire in which Hamas leaders and supporters are declaring victory and praising the attacks of Oct. 7, Trump's plan could serve as a wake-up call: the violent rejection of peace over the last century has created enough misery and destruction. This deadly charade must end.
        The writer is the author of Ghosts of a Holy War: The 1929 Massacre in Palestine that Ignited the Arab-Israeli Conflict.  (Forward)


  • U.S. Middle East Policy

  • A Paradigm Shift for the Middle East - Elliott Abrams
    A year and a half ago, Iran's nuclear weapons program was steadily producing enriched uranium; by 2024, it had enough for several bombs. Washington was largely not enforcing its sanctions on Iran, greatly improving the regime's finances. And the "ring of fire" of Iranian proxies - Hizbullah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen - seemed to be a problem Israel could not solve.
        But since then, Israel has turned the tables. Hamas has survived the invasion of Gaza and remains dominant there. But it will never again pose a serious military threat to Israel. The Israelis have wiped out Hizbullah's leadership and given Lebanon a chance to reclaim its sovereignty. Assad's regime is gone, and the weapons highway that has long run from Iran through Syria to Lebanon, Gaza, Jordan, and the West Bank appears to be closing.
        Trump can take advantage of the situation, but only if his administration is willing to abandon Washington's habitual goal in the Middle East - "stability" - and presses instead for dramatic changes that will bolster its interests and allies and actively weaken its adversaries.
        The writer is Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.  (Foreign Affairs)
  • The Palestinian State Fantasy - Jonathan S. Tobin
    Trump's decision to champion the idea of moving Palestinian Arabs out of Gaza is enormously consequential, even if it doesn't happen. It decisively changes the conversation about the Middle East and means the end of the fantasy about the creation of a Palestinian state.
        The international community, Arab and Muslim worlds, and the Palestinians themselves are outraged about the idea because all of these groups are still holding on to the idea that Gaza must be preserved as a bastion of anti-Zionist irredentism. Nothing can be allowed to interfere with that failed idea or compel them to recognize the legitimacy of a Jewish state, no matter where its borders can be drawn.
        Every American administration until Trump 2.0 held onto the belief that a Palestinian state was the way to end the conflict. A Palestinian state was an integral part of the first Trump administration's "Peace Through Prosperity" Mideast plan. The centerpiece of this new project is its clear assumption that there will never be an independent Palestinian state in Gaza or elsewhere. Still, it remains an article of faith among the foreign-policy establishment that Israel must be compelled to facilitate the creation of a state whose main purpose will serve, like Gaza under Hamas, as a springboard for Israel's eventual destruction.
        What Trump has done is to serve notice that the U.S. will no longer regard the facilitating of this destructive concept as a policy goal. He has made it clear that a different solution has to be found for the Palestinians. The people who cheered the orgy of mass murder, rape, torture, kidnapping and wanton destruction on Oct. 7 will not be rewarded for this with more pressure on Jerusalem to do something the overwhelming majority of Israelis oppose as suicidal. (JNS)
  • Qatar Is Hamas, and Hamas Is Qatar - Khaled Abu Toameh
    President Trump's recent statements regarding Qatar's role in reaching the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal surprised those who are familiar with the Gulf state's longtime support for radical Islamist groups. Qatar is Hamas's most important financial backer and foreign ally. It has reportedly transferred $1.8 billion to Hamas over the past two decades and has hosted several leaders of Hamas, who lived in hotels and villas in Doha and were treated as heads of state.
        After the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel, Qatar's foreign ministry released a statement holding "Israel alone responsible" for the massacre. Qatar also uses its television empire, Al Jazeera, to promote Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and other terror groups. After Oct. 7, the network broadcast Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif's call to arms.
        The Trump administration needs to understand what Arabs have known for years: that Qatar's support for Hamas and other extremist Islamist groups is the main reason thousands of Israelis and Palestinians have died over the past few years.
        The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.  (Gatestone Institute)


  • U.S.-Israel Relations

  • American Jewish Leader: Community Pleased with U.S.-Israel Policy Alignment under Trump - Conference of Presidents CEO William Daroff interviewed by Zev Stub
    William Daroff, CEO of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, widely considered to represent mainstream U.S. Jewry, said Sunday that Jewish organizational heads are pleased to see a strong alignment between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu.
        "At the moment, Netanyahu and Trump seem aligned in a way that is indicative of the close bond in the relationship between America and Israel, and that is something that every leader in the American Jewish community supports."
        "Trump's Middle East team is comprised of people the U.S. Jewish community knows and likes. Executive actions that were taken, relating to [sanctioning] the International Criminal Court and [investigating] antisemitism on university campuses, are all in sync with policy agenda items supported by many in the Jewish community."
        "Since Oct. 7, we have seen antisemitism coming out of the sewers, and we have seen it across the world. In America, the activity on college campuses, in school board meetings, the pro-jihad, pro-Hamas demonstrations has been startling. And it's been a wake-up call."
        "On Oct. 7, we all felt a punch in the gut as Israel was attacked, and then we had a second punch in the gut when we saw that neighbors, friends, and people we thought were our allies in America weren't standing with us. We were all surprised by the response on many college campuses and across society."  (Times of Israel)
Observations:


U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reacted to the video of the latest Israeli hostages released by Hamas on SiriusXM Patriot 125 radio on Monday:
  • "You look at these images of what they - first of all, the humiliation that they have to go through. Just put aside for a moment the horrifying conditions they were kept in and the horrifying things that happened to some of those hostages, on top of the fact that these were innocent civilians. I mean, none of these were soldiers. These are not combatants. These are just people that were abducted for purposes of being used as leverage. And they're getting, what, 200 certified killers in exchange for one innocent hostage. But it reveals who Hamas is."
  • "Look at the humiliation they put them through before they're released, where they do these big public displays of force. Do any of those Hamas fighters look like they've been skipping meals?...And then the conditions they're held in. So, it's incredibly revealing about what we're dealing with. This is an evil organization. Hamas is evil. It's pure evil. These are monsters. These are savages. That's a group that needs to be eradicated."
  • "If they still are the dominant power in Gaza when all this is done, there is not going to be peace in the Middle East, as long as a group like Hamas physically controls territory and is the most dominant power in Gaza or anywhere in the Middle East. And I hope people can see who these people actually are, in the condition of these hostages."
  • "The big challenge for this whole two-state solution has not been Israel. It's been: Who's going to govern that second state? Who's going to be in charge of it? If the people in charge of it are Hamas or Hizbullah or anybody like that, these are groups whose goal is the destruction of the Jewish state."
  • "I don't know how you're going to have peace if you're turning over territory to a group whose stated purpose is the destruction of the Jewish state. Why would any country in the world agree to create a second state on their border that is governed by armed elements who kidnap babies and murder babies and rape teenage girls and abduct innocents and whose stated goal and purpose for existing is your destruction? Who would agree to that?"

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