|
In-Depth Issues:
Does Ahmed al-Sharaa Control Syria? - Aris Roussinos ( Unherd)
When armed Alawite elements in Syria ambushed HTS security forces in Latakia last week, it unlocked a cycle of ethnosectarian violence already casting a pall on the new regime's international legitimacy.
The new government's counterinsurgency efforts swiftly degenerated into sectarian reprisals, with more than 700 Alawite civilians reported dead and brutal footage of summary executions posted online by the perpetrators.
How much control does the new government in Damascus actually wield over the security forces acting under its name in the northwest?
Early indications are that, rather than HTS's core security forces, the worst violence was carried out by foreign jihadist factions under the group's wing.
Also involved were the predominantly ethnically Turkmen "Syrian National Army" militias armed and funded by Turkey.
If the perpetrators of these war crimes are acting under Syrian President Sharaa's sanction, then all the recent talk of humane and technocratic governance by the new regime rings hollow.
Yet if the perpetrators are outside the Damascus government's control, then Sharaa's grip on power is surely weaker than many external observers assumed.
There Was No Famine in Gaza - according to Famine Review Groups' Own Data - Jeremy Sharon ( Times of Israel)
A review conducted by UK Lawyers for Israel (UKLFI) into allegations that famine and severe malnutrition were widespread in Gaza during the war between Israel and Hamas has found that famine did not break out, according to the figures of the international famine review bodies that made the claims.
The review found that these organizations used "incomplete or inaccurate data," inconsistent methodological standards, failed to take into account new data, and displayed "potential bias" in how it interpreted and presented the information it had.
These groups' data were used as evidence by the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court prosecutor in legal proceedings against Israel.
Yet UKLFI's review found that there was no famine in Gaza during the war, as defined by Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) standards.
In addition, levels of acute malnutrition were only marginally higher than pre-war figures.
These errors resulted from overlooking significant sources of food supply, IPC misclassifying its own data, and using an incorrect baseline figure for pre-war acute malnutrition.
Lessons from the IDF for the British Army - Maj. (ret.) Andrew Fox ( Telegraph-UK)
As Britain's armed forces now face the prospect of being deployed, perhaps in Eastern Europe, the UK can look to its battle-hardened ally Israel for a crash course in lessons for the modern world.
The IDF effectively used small drones for reconnaissance and attack, giving even junior infantry units an unprecedented situational advantage. British forces have tested Israeli-made drones.
The IDF faced a 360-degree threat environment in Gaza, with enemy fighters emerging from tunnels, rooftops, and with drones above. In response, Israeli commanders decentralized control, allowing small-unit leaders to act independently.
IDF Merkava tanks and Namer armored personnel carriers in Gaza withstood numerous Hamas RPG attacks. However, isolated tanks proved vulnerable to ambushes; better to deploy in pairs with infantry nearby.
The UK should prioritize equipping its armored fleet with active protection systems similar to those used by the IDF.
Finally, the Gaza war was fought both on the battlefield and in the media. Hamas effectively exploited images of destruction to shape global opinion, often exaggerating or distorting events.
The IDF struggled to counter this narrative in real time, facing international criticism despite implementing more civilian protection measures than most modern militaries.
The UK must proactively manage the narrative by rapidly releasing factual updates, providing evidence for military actions, and deploying information warfare teams to counter disinformation.
The writer, who served in the British Army in 2005-21, is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst.
The Resilience of the Israeli Nation Is Being Tested - Amb. Freddy Eytan ( Israel Hayom)
A nation is tested by dangers, and during crises and armed conflicts. Only strong resilience is capable of navigating against all odds.
Demoralization kills action and risks plunging the country into an irreversible coma.
The overwhelming majority of the Israeli people have demonstrated since Oct. 7, 2023, exemplary courage in the fight against Islamist terrorism, remarkable determination for the release of the hostages, and unprecedented support for all families in distress.
In painful and difficult times, Israelis have always had the ability to unite and continue their way of life.
This popular solidarity is unique among nations and has characterized the destiny of the Jewish people since the dawn of time.
Despite all the difficulties and threats, we are the only ones on the planet who can always count on our faith and on the unwavering solidarity of the Jewish communities.
The writer, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, is a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who was Israel's first ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania.
In Gaza, Hamas Claims Victory, People Claim Failure - Ahmed Abd Al-Salam ( Media Line-Jerusalem Post)
They declared victory and handed out sweets as if the war had ended. But for the people of Gaza, none of the disasters have been addressed.
Chaos rules every aspect of daily existence. Salaries and bank deposits are stolen by powerful, well-known figures who control the cash flow, taking a 20% cut for themselves.
The economic crisis deepens, with no solutions for the broken currency system or Gaza's battered transportation sector.
The black market thrives. Cooking gas sells for 10 times its usual price; diesel and gasoline are unaffordable.
Housing is obscenely expensive, despite the lack of water and electricity. The streets are mountains of rubble, with trash piling up in every corner. There is no equipment to clean up the devastation.
The concept of rebuilding is a fantasy. Education remains in limbo, and government institutions are completely paralyzed.
For many, escape has become the only dream. Many want to, but they are trapped.
People want normal lives, without endless suffering. But they cannot say this out loud.
Because in Gaza, you do not have the right to demand a better future. You are simply watched, silenced, and left to endure.
The writer is a Palestinian journalist living in Gaza.
|
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- U.S. Secretary of State Rubio Reiterates America's Commitment to a Gaza Solution without Hamas - Spokesperson Tammy Bruce
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz met Monday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman Al Saud in Jeddah. The leaders discussed Yemen and threats to navigation from Houthi terrorists that threaten global commerce, American interests, and Saudi citizens and infrastructure.
They discussed reconstruction in Gaza. Rubio reiterated the firm U.S. commitment that any solution to the situation in Gaza must not include any role for Hamas.
(U.S. State Department)
See also Rubio Says U.S. Hostage Envoy's Meeting with Hamas Was "One-Off" - Daphne Psaledakis
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that President Trump's hostage envoy Adam Boehler's meeting with Hamas "was a one-off situation in which our special envoy for hostages, whose job it is to get people released, had an opportunity to talk directly to someone who has control over these people and was given permission and encouraged to do so."
"As of now, it hasn't borne fruit. Doesn't mean he was wrong to try, but our primary vehicle for negotiations on this front will continue to be [special envoy for the Middle East Steve] Witkoff and the work he's doing through Qatar." (Reuters)
- Syrian Government Signs Deal with Kurdish-Led Forces - Christina Goldbaum
The Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed, Syrian Democratic Forces militia that controls northeastern Syria agreed on Monday to merge with the country's new government, Syria's presidency announced.
However, fighting continued between Kurdish-led forces and armed groups backed by Turkey, a close ally and backer of the new government in Damascus.
(New York Times)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Israeli Airstrike Targets Military Sites in Syria - Lior Ben Ari
The Israel Air Force carried out dozens of attacks Monday night against radar installations, aerial detection systems, military headquarters, and weapons depots in southern Syria. "These targets were struck to eliminate future threats," the IDF said.
(Ynet News)
- Amid Serious Threats, Israel Is Trying to Shape a New Reality in Syria - Ron Ben-Yishai
The massacre carried out by the forces of the new Syrian government in the Alawite region of western Syria strengthens Israel's perception that these emerging threats require early preparedness. This is not only due to the jihadist threat posed by those who have seized power, but also because Syria could become a hub of military bases sought by Turkey's Erdogan. Israel has no interest in having Turkey on its border in the Golan, especially not a combination of former al-Qaeda jihadists and Turkish forces.
In addition, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad may seek to operate from Syria against Israeli border communities in the Golan and Upper Galilee. It has been revealed that the new Syrian government released senior terrorists from Hamas and Islamic Jihad from prisons. There are also extreme Sunni elements in the area of Daraa in southern Syria who refuse to commit to peaceful relations with Israel. (Ynet News)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War
- Israel Has Many Cards to Play Against Hamas - Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser interviewed by Yonah Jeremy Bob
In July 2023, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence, called to invade Gaza and said Hamas was being given far too much space to threaten Israel. It turns out that Kuperwasser was one of the only officials who saw Gaza and Hamas clearly through the fog.
Regarding Gaza, he told the Jerusalem Post on Sunday, "We want to get the hostages back without paying too large a price....We have many cards to play and they only have the hostages." President Trump "is supporting all Israeli efforts, and he is referring to Hamas in a hostile manner. He said decisively: Hamas cannot stay in Gaza."
There is "the card of humanitarian aid; Israel can use this. It will take time until it is effective, but it is a serious bargaining chip to use if we have patience. There is the card about the future - there will be no reconstruction or funding of reconstruction unless we allow it."
He described how Israel "can use more military force. There is a new IDF chief who will use it more massively." Asked how long the IDF would need to remain in Gaza, he responded: "However long is needed."
Regarding Iran, Kuperwasser said, "We need to eliminate their pathway to developing a nuclear weapon, and not merely to prevent them from the final act of getting one. As long as they have the potential capability to develop one, it will be continuously hard to stop them. We need a reality where they cannot make one at all. Right now, they are very close to obtaining one....This is a reality we cannot continue to live with." (Jerusalem Post)
- How Hamas Can Be Destroyed with Military Force - Maj. (ret.) John Spencer
Some argue that Hamas cannot be destroyed through military means. However, dismissing Israel's ability to dismantle Hamas militarily fails to account for the constraints the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) faced in the past 16 months.
During the initial phase of the war, the IDF was forced to operate under significant restrictions not placed on militaries throughout history. Arab nations - especially Egypt - pressured Israel to conduct military operations in a manner that left civilian populations in areas within Gaza rather than relocating them to safer zones outside the battlefield.
Moreover, the Biden administration and other international actors imposed severe limitations on IDF operations. These included withholding military aid, demands to not conduct operations in key Hamas strongholds like Rafah, unrealistic expectations of zero civilian casualties, and frequent pauses in combat due to humanitarian concerns. The IDF was even compelled to limit the scale of its operations from the beginning of the war, prolonging the conflict and allowing Hamas to regroup.
Finally, Israel had to divert substantial military resources to northern Israel to counter Hizbullah's attacks and the persistent threats of a large-scale ground assault. Israel also faced attacks from Iran and the Houthis in Yemen, preventing a fully concentrated effort against Hamas.
Should military operations resume, they will unfold under a vastly different set of conditions. In addition, Hamas is no longer the formidable force it was at the onset of the conflict, having been degraded into a guerrilla force with weakened leadership and reduced firepower.
The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. (Newsweek)
- Don't Be Fooled by Hamas's "Long-Term Ceasefire" Ploy - Khaled Abu Toameh
While the Trump administration deserves enormous appreciation for its sincere efforts to secure the release of the Israeli and American hostages, it must be careful not to allow itself to be duped by Hamas. For many years, Israel believed that Hamas was not interested in an all-out war with Israel and was working for economic prosperity in Gaza. An IDF investigation into the Oct. 7 massacre
concluded that Hamas had planned the Oct. 7 attack for more than 10 years.
Hamas's deception included sending messages to Israel indicating interest in a long-term truce. Today, everyone knows that the talk about a long-term truce was nothing but a smokescreen to conceal Hamas's real intention.
Hamas anyway is not known for honoring ceasefire agreements. During the past 15 years, several truces reached between Hamas and Israel collapsed after the terrorist group violated them. Some Westerners mistakenly think that Hamas's talk about a hudna (armistice or truce) implies that the terrorist group seeks peace with Israel. For Hamas, a hudna is a temporary break from war - it does not indicate a desire to end it and achieve peace.
It is plainly uninformed to believe that Hamas would ever lay down its weapons and agree to end its jihad against Israel. The Trump administration is advised to listen to what Hamas leaders say in Arabic to their own people, and not what they tell U.S. officials during secret meetings in Qatar.
The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. (Gatestone Institute)
- Voluntary Refugee Resettlement: A Possible Solution to Clashing Visions for Gaza Reconstruction - Robert Satloff
How do we get from the current situation - an imperiled ceasefire on the verge of renewed warfare - to a post-conflict, Hamas-free Gaza that is ready for reconstruction? 75% of the population are formally registered with UNRWA as "Palestine refugees" (or, more likely, descended from those refugees). In other words, they publicly declare that they have no legal or national connections to Gaza.
Given clear options, some Palestinians would choose to stay in Gaza and renounce their refugee status in exchange for the deed to a new home of their own. Others, with the promise of compensation, would no doubt jump at the chance to move, depending on how wide the doors to asylum, permanent residency, and even citizenship swing open around the world.
Arab states argue that Gazans have such a firm attachment to the land that few would ever leave voluntarily. On the other hand, they reject the idea of voluntary relocation because they fear numerous Gazans would in fact take that option - more than their societies can absorb.
As it turns out, Gazans have steadily emigrated for years with few political repercussions abroad.
According to World Bank statistics, which combine Gaza and the West Bank, the territories have had 27 consecutive years of negative demographic outflow, averaging about 20,000 emigrants per year since 1998. In Gaza, a recent Palestinian research study noted, "Since 2007, local reports have confirmed that over 250,000 youths migrated from the Gaza Strip in pursuit of a thriving life in Europe." Before the war, in the month of August 2023 alone, there were 16,700 Turkish visa applications submitted by young adults in Gaza.
Focusing on the concept of voluntary refugee resettlement could result in 40% or more leaving of their own accord, dramatically improving the prospects for expeditious reconstruction.
The writer is Executive Director of The Washington Institute.
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
Lebanon
- Lebanon Grapples with Hizbullah's "Victory" over Israel - Nabih Bulos
In its myth-making and propaganda, Hizbullah portrays the war with Israel as a victory, a greater triumph than the last major engagement between the two sides in 2006. But the militant group now has to contend with an aftermath that for many Lebanese, including some Hizbullah partisans, looks very much like defeat.
Thousands of its fighters and supporters are dead, the upper echelons of its leadership decimated. Wide swaths of pro-Hizbullah areas are all but flattened; almost 100,000 people remain displaced and Israeli forces still occupy parts of Lebanon.
Hizbullah had vowed its arsenal of long-range missiles would level Israeli cities the instant Lebanese cities were targeted. But that never happened. Hizbullah leadership had no sense of how deeply Israeli intelligence had penetrated its ranks, booby-trapping the group's pagers and walkie-talkies and picking off its senior commanders, including its secretary-general of 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah.
While despite being at its weakest in years, Hizbullah retains a loyal following.
Yet not everyone in southern Lebanon agrees. Not a single structure in the hamlet of Bustan survived Israel's offensive, including the house Ahmad Al-Ahmad, 43, built with money he earned working for more than two decades in Berlin. The promised compensation from Hizbullah had yet to materialize. He said he would return to Berlin to work, but wouldn't rebuild so long as Hizbullah remained dominant in southern Lebanon.
Ali, 49, a merchant in Tyre, said, "People talk about victory. What victory? All this destruction and death? What was this for? Hizbullah must pay to fix this. And if they don't, we're going to kick them out." Few Lebanese believe the group has the funds to compensate for the damage.
Many Lebanese feel anger toward Hizbullah for dragging the country into an ill-conceived war, said Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
"There's a great deal of mistrust of Hizbullah."
(Los Angeles Times)
Iran
- Iran Must Meet Strict Preconditions before Negotiations on a New Nuclear Agreement - Mark Dubowitz and Jacob Nagel
During Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent visit to Washington, while much of the public focus was on Gaza, the most critical discussions behind closed doors centered on the Iranian threat - the regime's nuclear ambitions, its regional aggression, and its sponsorship of terrorism.
Any talk of negotiating a new nuclear agreement before Iran meets strict preconditions is a dangerous mistake. The focus must be on what Iran must do before any talks begin. For years, Iran has systematically violated international agreements, deceived inspectors, and developed nuclear capabilities under the cover of diplomacy.
Any agreement must dismantle all three pillars of Iran's nuclear program: fissile material production - Iran must eliminate its stockpiles of enriched uranium, destroy its centrifuges, and shut down all conversion and enrichment facilities; weaponization - Iran must halt all weapon development activities, fully disclose past work, and dismantle research centers working on nuclear warhead technology; and delivery systems - Iran's ballistic missile program, which is designed for nuclear payloads, must be stopped.
Iran must not be allowed to retain any nuclear capabilities on its soil. The only acceptable outcome is Iran's complete nuclear rollback, enforced by intrusive inspections.
Given the high likelihood that Iran will reject such preconditions to start a negotiation process, Israel must prepare for a large-scale campaign to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat. The time for diplomacy ended the moment Iran violated its commitments and raced toward nuclear breakout.
Mark Dubowitz is chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Prof. Jacob Nagel served as National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Netanyahu and as acting head of Israel's National Security Council. (Jerusalem Post)
Europe-Israel Relations
- Why Is Europe Criticizing Israel Less? - Shimon Sherman
When Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced a siege on Gaza on Oct. 9, 2023, it did not
survive its first interaction with the Western media, which turned immediately to focus on the "plight of the Palestinians." It was irrelevant that Hamas was stealing the majority of the aid.
However, when the Israeli prime minister announced on March 2, 2025, that Israel was halting the import of most aid into Gaza as ceasefire negotiations broke down, the response from Europe was muted, and the response from Washington was positive. Several factors came together to produce the muted reaction from Europe.
"When the U.S. is behind Israel, we see a very healthy respect from Europe, and they behave much more tamely. This response is a clear reaction to the friendship between Israel and the new administration," said Danny Ayalon, a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. "When the U.S. is critical of Israel, then the European countries will be even more so."
Alan Baker, an expert on international law and a former Israeli ambassador to Canada,
agrees. "A lot of international media outlets, and organizations including the EU, are hesitant to come down against Israel, knowing Trump's position." He added that "what's going on with Ukraine...is attracting most of the attention from Europe, and comparatively the situation in Israel is less dramatically important for them."
An additional factor is the resurgence of right-wing parties and broad discontent surrounding high levels of Muslim immigration into Europe. Moreover, over the past several months the world has been shocked at the images coming out of Gaza. Images of crowds dancing over the coffins of children, emaciated men and mutilated women have all been a stark reminder for the world of the evil Israel is fighting. The imprisonment of hostages did not resonate well with the narrative of the "plight of the Palestinians."
"In the last few months, Hamas has been perceived as very cruel and ruthless. I think a growing body of opinion, both in the international public and in the media, has a reduced element of sympathy for Hamas and the Palestinians, because of what they have been doing and because of the stories that have been coming out," Baker said. (JNS)
Antisemitism
- Are Protesters Who Wear Masks Acting Illegally? - Philip Hamburger
After the Civil War, members of the Ku Klux Klan relied on masks to protect them from identification by witnesses when they threatened, assaulted and murdered recently emancipated slaves. Congress responded by enacting laws against masking, including the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871.
One of its provisions is now Section 1985 of Title 42 of the U.S. Code. It provides for damages when two or more persons "conspire or go in disguise on the highway or on the premises of another, for the purpose of depriving, either directly or indirectly, any person or class of persons of the equal protection of the laws."
Like Klansmen, masked students shield themselves from accountability for disruption and violence. When a university takes a permissive approach to masking, it facilitates the masked wrongdoers, and it deprives their targets - in this case, mostly Jewish students and faculty - of the equal protection of the laws. Universities need to take civil-rights laws seriously. Schools that permit obstructive, bullying, and sometimes violent antisemites to hide their identities are depriving Jews of equal protection in violation of the law.
The writer teaches at Columbia Law School and is CEO of the New Civil Liberties Alliance. (Wall Street Journal)
Observations:
- In February I went to Kibbutz Nir Oz, just over a mile from Gaza, where Hamas and hundreds of "civilians" from Gaza murdered 46 people and abducted 71 on Oct. 7, 2023, more than a quarter of the community's population. Only four houses were undamaged.
- Only eight people have come back to Nir Oz so far. Yoav Bazer, 22, who survived on Oct. 7 by hiding, is an overseer of the kibbutz's agriculture. The pomegranate trees are dead, their irrigation system destroyed. But the hardier avocado trees still yield their fruit, and I find Bazer and a team of volunteers picking them.
- The dozen volunteers come from all over Israel, working in weeklong shifts.
They range in age from 18 to 72. Rina Yakuel Kerzner, a charismatic grandma, says, "My job is to do anything we need to do for Nir Oz. If it is the avocado, if it is preparing in the kitchen, whatever Nir Oz needs, we are here to serve them."
- Eyal Kalasquin, another volunteer, is a lawyer in his late 20s. He says, "To walk around here and think that this work was supposed to be done by people that got murdered...it's something very harsh....We sleep in the wreckage of this beautiful place." The kibbutz is still a dark world of blackened houses and shattered windows, with the debris of violence everywhere.
- We meet Nili Margalit, 43, a pediatric nurse who was abducted by Hamas on Oct. 7 and released on Dec. 1, 2023, as well as Mor Tzarfati, 42, who survived Oct. 7. They both now live in Kiryat Gat. Neither wants to return to Nir Oz. "I will only come back," says Tzarfati - whose brother and his wife were shot dead on Oct. 7, their three children dying of smoke-asphyxiation - "if the people of Gaza won't be there next to us. We can't live next to people whose aim is to destroy Jews, whose education teaches them to kill us."
- Both women have moved notably to the right after the Hamas attacks. Nir Oz was one of the most leftist of Israel's kibbutzim. Its residents spoke habitually of peace, and often had workers from Gaza help in the fields and with construction. But unless a radical solution is found to shift the Gazans elsewhere - or, perhaps even less likely, transform them into peaceful neighbors - Tzarfati won't be back. "Everyone from here who now lives in Kiryat Gat thinks like this," she says.
The writer is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and at NYU Law School's Classical Liberal Institute.
|