DAILY ALERT
Sunday,
March 23, 2025
In-Depth Issues:

The Iran Files: Proof of Iran's Direct Role in Planning Oct. 7 - Nadav Shragai (Israel Hayom)
    Iran has repeatedly claimed that it had no prior knowledge of the Oct. 7 attack. However, captured documents that the IDF seized during the Gaza war paint a completely different picture.
    Iran knew that Hamas intended to attack, although the exact date was not coordinated with them.
    Captured Hamas documents published by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center record ongoing communication between Iran and Hamas regarding the attack, especially from 2021 through 2023.
    On Hamas's side, Yahya Sinwar, Saleh Arouri and Ismail Haniyeh led the meetings and coordination efforts.
    On the Iranian side was Saeed Izadi, head of the Palestine Branch in the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards.
    According to the documents, Izadi informed higher officials in the Iranian leadership about these contacts, including Supreme Leader Khamenei.
    Some 20 documents, protocols and summaries of meetings demonstrate a shared understanding between the Iranians and Hamas that the time was ripe to try to destroy Israel.
    Security sources have now revealed that in August and September 2023, meetings were held in Beirut once every two weeks where the attack plan against Israel was discussed.
    These meetings were attended by Saleh Arouri from Hamas, Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader Ziad Nakhala, and Iranian Quds Force Commander Ismail Qaani.
    Qaani himself was present at training sessions for hundreds of Hamas operatives held on Iranian soil during September, just weeks before the massacre.



Freed Israeli Hostage Asks UN Security Council: "Where Was the UN? Where Was the Red Cross?" - Daniel Edelson (Ynet News)
    Eli Sharabi, 53, a resident of Kibbutz Be'eri, who was abducted on Oct. 7 and held hostage by Hamas in Gaza for 491 days, told the UN Security Council on Thursday the story of his captivity.
    Hamas terrorists murdered his wife, Lianne, and their daughters, Noiya and Yahel. Sharabi's brother, Yossi, was also taken hostage but later died in captivity.
    "I have come back from hell," Sharabi said. "I was kept underground, starved, beaten and chained like an animal. For 491 days, I begged for food, begged to use the bathroom."
    "I was given one piece of pita a day, maybe a sip of tea....I saw Hamas terrorists carrying boxes with UN and UNRWA emblems into the tunnels. They ate like kings while we wasted away." 
    See also Full Text: Freed Hostage Eli Sharabi at the UN (Times of Israel)
    See also Israel to UN: "Cruelty Here Is Not Just from Hamas, But from the Silence of the World (Jerusalem Post)
    Following released hostage Eli Sharabi's address to the UN Security Council on Thursday, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said, "cruelty here is not just from Hamas, but from the silence of the world. Where is the outrage?"
    Danon noted that, of the 77 resolutions passed since Oct. 7, not a single one has condemned Hamas.



Poll: Majority of Gazans Would Leave If They Could (Gallup International)
    52% of Gazans would leave for another country if they had the opportunity, a survey by Gallup International found in the first half of March.
    Younger Gazans and those living in Gaza City or Khan Yunis are the most eager to live in another country.
    37% of Gazans report they are unable to return to their homes, while 65% describe their quality of life since Oct. 7, 2023, as "very bad" or "fairly bad."



Israel's Cabinet Approves Administration for "Voluntary Transition" of Gazans to Third Countries - Yaniv Kubovich (Ha'aretz)
    Israel's Security Cabinet approved the establishment of a voluntary transit administration to third countries "for Gaza residents who express an interest in doing to so," subject to the provisions of Israeli and international law, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Sunday.
    The administration will operate "to prepare for and enable safe and controlled transit of Gaza residents for their voluntary departure to third countries, including securing their movement, establishing a traffic route and checking pedestrians at designated crossings in Gaza, as well as coordinating the provision of infrastructure that will enable transit by land, sea, and air to target countries."



Iranians Battle "Water Bankruptcy" - Sanam Mahoozi (Reuters)
    Water levels in dams supplying nearly all of Tehran's drinking water have plunged to their lowest levels on record, just 5% of capacity.
    Water rationing and power cuts are forecast for the summer as rain-starved Iran wilts under a severe drought.
    Lakes are disappearing, farmers are struggling, and huge sinkholes have appeared in cities as water tables decline.
    Kaveh Madani, director of the UN University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health and a former deputy head of Iran's Department of Environment, said the country was experiencing "water bankruptcy."
    Scientists say the water shortages are mainly caused by decades of mismanagement, inefficient agricultural practices, and a growing population.



News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • A Weakened Hamas Struggles to Respond to Israel's Attacks - Summer Said
    After three days of Israeli assaults on Gaza, Hamas launched three rockets at Tel Aviv on Thursday that sent residents running for shelters. One rocket was intercepted, while the other two landed harmlessly, highlighting how Hamas has yet to mount an effective military response to Israel's renewed attacks.
        After more than a year of war, Arab intelligence officials believe that Hamas now has just 10-15% of the rockets it had when it attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Israel has destroyed many of Hamas's rocket-manufacturing sites, intelligence officials said. (Wall Street Journal)
        See also Israel: Military Pressure Aimed to Bring Hostages Back from Gaza - James Mackenzie
    Israel will keep striking Hamas targets in Gaza to ensure the return of hostages, Ophir Falk, Prime Minister Netanyahu's foreign policy adviser, said Saturday. "The only reason they [Hamas] went back to the negotiating table was military pressure, and that's what we're doing right now."  (Reuters)
  • How Israel Plans to Escalate Its War on Hamas in Gaza - Gerry Shih
    As Israel's forces push back into Gaza after a two-month ceasefire with Hamas, its political and military leaders are considering plans for a fresh ground campaign that could include a military occupation of the entire enclave for months or more.
        New and more aggressive tactics will probably also include direct military control of humanitarian aid; targeting more of Hamas's civilian leadership; and evacuating women, children and verified noncombatants from neighborhoods to "humanitarian bubbles" and laying siege to those who remain.
        Some officials say that only a full-scale invasion now, followed by a lengthy counterinsurgency and deradicalization effort, would accomplish Israel's stated aim of eradicating Hamas, which had sparked the war.
        Brig.-Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, a former deputy commander of the IDF's Gaza division, said, "Now there is new [IDF] leadership, there is the backup from the U.S., there is the fact that we have enough munitions, and the fact that we finished our main missions in the north and can concentrate on Gaza. The plans are decisive. There will be a full-scale attack and they will not stop until Hamas is eradicated completely."
        Israeli officials say they are still willing to negotiate with Hamas through mediators before launching any large-scale invasion. (Washington Post)
        See also below Observations: The Wider Goal Needs to Be the Conquest of Gaza - Oded Ailam interviewed by Yishai Elmakies (Makor Rishon-Hebrew-21March2025)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Hamas "Unwilling to Compromise," Israel to Escalate Offensive - Amichai Stein
    A week into Israel's renewed offensive in Gaza, Hamas is still "unwilling to compromise" in hostage deal talks, a source told the Jerusalem Post on Saturday. An Israeli official said Saturday that given Hamas's current stance, Israel would escalate its military operations in the coming days. "Hamas is signaling that it is not engaging, so there is no choice - the responses will escalate."  (Jerusalem Post)
  • Israel Sends Troops into Northern and Southern Gaza - Yonah Jeremy Bob
    The IDF announced on Thursday that it had four separate forces operating simultaneously in each of Gaza's main regions. Troops are operating in central Gaza at the Netzarim Corridor, Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza, Bani Suheila near Khan Yunis in southern Gaza, and Shaboura in Rafah near the Egyptian border. So far, Hamas has failed to mount much resistance. (Jerusalem Post)
        See also Israel Expands Operations in Southern Gaza - Yonah Jeremy Bob
    The IDF on Sunday ordered an evacuation of Palestinian civilians in Tel Sultan in western Rafah, where the IDF killed former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and where many Israeli hostages were kept, including six who were executed by Hamas. (Jerusalem Post)
  • Ninth Hamas Political Bureau Member Eliminated in Gaza - Shachar Kleiman
    Hamas Political Bureau member Salah al-Bardawil was killed Saturday night in an Israeli Air Force strike in the al-Mawasi area near Khan Yunis. He frequently appeared as a spokesperson in Arab media. His death marks the ninth casualty among the bureau's 17 members since the beginning of the war. Six other members left Gaza before the conflict began. (Israel Hayom)
  • IDF Strikes Dozens of Hizbullah Launchers after Rocket Fire into Israel
    The IDF struck dozens of Hizbullah rocket launchers and a command center from which terrorists were operating in southern Lebanon on Saturday after six rockets were fired at Israel, three of which crossed the border and were intercepted over Metulla. Hizbullah denied responsibility for the missile fire. The Lebanese Army said it had discovered the launchers used in the attack and dismantled them.
        Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned, "We will not tolerate attacks on Galilee communities from Lebanon....Metulla and Beirut will be treated the same. The Lebanese government is fully responsible for any fire originating from its territory."  (Jerusalem Post)
  • Houthis Fire Missile at Israel on Sunday - Emanuel Fabian
    A ballistic missile fired at Israel by the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen on Sunday morning was shot down before crossing the country's borders. It was the fifth Houthi attack on Israel since the Israel Defense Forces began a renewed offensive against Hamas in Gaza on Tuesday. On Saturday, a missile launched from Yemen fell short in Saudi Arabia. (Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

    The Gaza War

  • Israel Has Every Right to Eliminate Hamas - Maj. (ret.) Andrew Fox
    The breakdown of the ceasefire in Gaza was predictable, inevitable and solely the responsibility of Hamas. Hamas used the ceasefire as a tactical pause to regroup, rearm and prepare for the next wave of violence. Israel was confronted with Hamas's failure to negotiate in good faith for the release of hostages and is entirely justified in resuming efforts to dismantle Hamas as a military threat once and for all.
        Israel had little choice but to resume operations. Allowing Hamas to rebuild its infrastructure, replenish its arms caches, and reconstitute its terror capabilities would only lead to greater violence and loss of life. The return to hostilities, though tragic, is morally necessary. Israel is obliged, morally and strategically, to dismantle Hamas's capability to wage war. The recent resumption of strikes is not aggression, but a necessary act of self-defense aimed squarely at ending Hamas's capacity to threaten Israeli lives.
        To argue otherwise is untenable and irresponsible. Israel should not endlessly absorb attacks, negotiate with a fundamentally hostile actor, or accept a cycle of violence and hostage-taking as the status quo. Israel's resumption of military operations is an entirely justified and necessary step towards ending the conflict. Until Hamas is decisively defeated, true peace in Gaza will remain tragically elusive.
        The writer, who served in the British Army in 2005-21, is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst.  (Spiked)
  • Palestinians: "We Are Dying Because of Hamas" - Khaled Abu Toameh
    The ceasefire-hostage deal collapsed on March 18 because Hamas is not prepared to release all the hostages, disarm, and cede control. Hamas considers the hostages an "insurance policy" for holding onto power.
        On March 9, 2025, senior Hamas official Khaled Mashaal said that the Palestinians would never disarm. "The path of jihad and resistance is the way to regain the homeland, honor, and freedom, and to free the prisoners [from Israeli jail]. The world respects only the strong." Also in March, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri stressed that any discussion of disarming Hamas is "nonsense" and that the issue is "not up for bargaining, discussion, or negotiation."
        During the past few days, many Gazans took to social media to lash out at Hamas for refusing to release all the hostages and end the war. Although many Palestinians continue to support Hamas and the "resistance" against Israel, a growing number are speaking out. Gazan Abu Ezz Ahmed said: "Anyone who has even a grain of love for the people of Gaza must raise their voice now and demand - immediately and without delay - that Hamas free Gaza for the sake of God by handing over the hostages and lifting its hand from Gaza. We are dying because of Hamas."
        Palestinian human rights and peace activist Hamza Howidy wrote that for Hamas, "surrender means facing their own failure. It means admitting that all of this - the loss, the destruction, the unimaginable suffering - was for nothing. And that is something they cannot bear."
        Egyptian political analyst Khaled Hassan said: "I've never seen that many Gazans angry at Hamas. For the first time in my life, the overwhelming majority of Gazans are treating them with the contempt they deserve. I can confidently say that the majority of Gazans I saw commenting online said they want the hostages released in exchange for a return to the ceasefire. In my view, this is big. The military pressure is working."
        The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.  (Gatestone Institute)
  • Israel's Stunning Blow Against Hamas's Fascists - Brendan O'Neill
    Imagine if, following an Allied raid on Nazi positions, the newspapers the next day told us about nothing but the civilian casualties. No mention of the fascists who were killed. Instead, just pained commentary on the suffering of the innocents who tragically found themselves swept up in this act of war. We would think that strange, right?
        Well, that's how I feel perusing the coverage of Israel's resumption of its military crusade against Hamas. You could be forgiven for thinking this is a blindly barbarous assault in which only the guiltless have perished. It's not true. In reality, Israel appears to have landed a brilliant blow on the new fascism, taking out some of Gaza's most nefarious radical Islamists who played key roles in the armies of antisemites that subjected the Jews of Israel to such horrors on 7 October 2023.
        The removal of Hamas's de facto prime minister, its security chief, its top domestic bruiser and other commanders represents the decapitation of this racist movement that poses such a threat to the Jewish nation and to civilization itself. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), a deranged Sunni Islamist army devoted to the destruction of Israel, also confirmed that its military spokesman was killed. PIJ gleefully took part in 7 October's carnival of violence. Yet we're left with the impression that Israel has only killed innocents, and only intended to.
        When it comes to the Jewish State and its fight against the Islamist armies that surround it, we're fed an infantile morality tale in which Israel is a genocidal maniac and Gaza an unimpeachably blameless land peopled entirely by innocents. The truth of war - a war Hamas started - is buried by a furious and sometimes pornographic obsession with civilian suffering. We are actively discouraged from coolly discussing Hamas's culpability, the question of Jewish security, and the idea of a "just war."  (Spectator-UK)


  • Iran

  • U.S. Releases Restraints, Empowers Israel to Confront Iran - Amb. Michael Oren
    The president who ordered the liquidation of Qassem Sulimani, the commander of Iran's Quds force, in 2020 is now threatening not only to put a credible military option back on the table but waving it in the Ayatollah's face. "Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN," the President posted. "IRAN will be held responsible."
        Not since 1988, when Ronald Reagan ordered the U.S. Navy to sink the Iranian ships that shot at Kuwaiti oil tankers, has Washington retaliated for Iranian attacks against American targets. In 2023-2024, pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq launched 180 rocket and drone attacks against American bases, causing dozens of casualties, while the Houthis in Yemen essentially blocked international shipping through the crucial Mandeb Straits.
        In spite of this flagrant aggression, the Biden administration refused to approve the firing of a single bullet at Iran. Instead, Washington officials constantly broadcast fear of a war with Iran - a war which Iran, lacking an air force, had no ability to wage. Not surprisingly, the Ayatollahs concluded that they and their proxies could continue to attack the U.S. and its allies with impunity. All that is now about to change.
        The writer is a former Israeli ambassador to the U.S. and Deputy Minister for Diplomacy.  (Ynet News)
Observations:

The Wider Goal Needs to Be the Conquest of Gaza - Oded Ailam interviewed by Yishai Elmakies (Makor Rishon-Hebrew-21March2025)

Oded Ailam, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad and currently a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, explains the thinking behind the renewed Israeli offensive in Gaza.
  • "Hamas has an interest in drawing out the negotiations, raising various new issues all the time....In Hamas, they understood that they needed time...to enlist and train new fighters, to replenish their weapons supply, and to strengthen their control over the population. But enlisting 5,000 youths age 16-18 and giving them 300 shekels each doesn't make them an effective fighting force."
  • "Hamas is particularly focused on maintaining control of the Gazan population and is telling them to forget any ideas that Hamas is leaving, disarming, and becoming irrelevant. Their message is 'We are here.' Hamas has a unit called 'Saham,' whose role is to deal with collaborators....This unit uses threats to instill fear in Gazans who question the ethos of Hamas. They deal with Gazans with a heavy hand, abuse them and kill them."
  • Unlike relations with the Biden Administration, Ailam says, Israel is acting in coordination with the Americans. "Israel agreed to the Witkoff outline and Hamas rejected it. Hamas will not return all the hostages....Hamas clearly understands the importance of the hostage card for Israel, so they will not release all of them. It is an illusion to say, 'let's withdraw totally from Gaza, accept all of Hamas's demands, and then after we get back the hostages we can go back in.' It won't happen because Hamas will not release all the hostages."
  • "Hamas finds itself now at its lowest point. All of its supporters in the region lied to them or ceased to exist. Hizbullah will certainly not return to the fight, nor will Iran. The Houthis may shoot a missile every so often to wake us up at night, but not more than that. And so they are left quite alone. Hamas is now fighting for its survival."
  • "Hamas understands that it will not rule, but wants the Hizbullah model where it doesn't rule but it dictates everything. The Egyptian plan would allow this....As long as Hamas is not disarmed it will dictate everything that happens in Gaza. I don't see any international force that is able to come and disarm Hamas. Certainly not the Egyptians."
  • "Israel has no other real option to achieve the goals of the war - the return of the hostages and the collapse of Hamas - without the conquest of Gaza down to the last centimeter. We need to perform a deep cleansing that includes the destruction of its military infrastructure, preventing rearmament, and a complete economic blockade of Hamas."
  • "We will need to set up a military government to back up the Israeli moves, and after a year or two, try to create an alternative internal government, while enabling Israel to do whatever it needs to do in Gaza for its security, and maintain a security perimeter to assure that Oct. 7 will not reoccur. I don't see any other way."

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