|
In-Depth Issues:
U.S., Iran Officials Meet in Rome for Nuclear Talks - Matthew Lee ( AP)
President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke face-to-face at the residence of the Omani ambassador in Rome on Saturday and will meet again in Oman on April 26.
The sides "made very good progress in our direct and indirect discussions," according to a senior Trump administration official.
Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was in Rome on Saturday and spotted at the same hotel where Witkoff was staying.
Big Gaps in Intelligence on Iran's Nuke Program Threaten Push for Quick Deal -
Laurence Norman ( Wall Street Journal)
President Trump is calling for Iran to "go fast" to secure a new nuclear accord.
But for any deal to work, Tehran will have to account for exactly what nuclear program hardware it has produced and stowed away.
There are critical gaps in the world's understanding of Iran's nuclear inventory.
Implementing a new deal without having a clear inventory of what nuclear material and infrastructure Iran currently has would be extremely risky.
Without that baseline, it is next to impossible to ensure that Iran is complying with detailed limits on its nuclear enrichment under a deal.
"Iran needs to start cooperating more fully with the IAEA in order to develop confidence that any deal is water-tight," said David Albright, a former weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security.
A critical gap in IAEA knowledge of Iran's nuclear program is Iran's inventory of centrifuges that spin uranium into higher levels of enrichment.
In 2021, Iran stopped handing over to the agency footage and measurements from the cameras installed at its nuclear facilities.
Before a deal can be implemented, an IAEA probe into undeclared nuclear material found in Iran must be resolved.
Behind the Leak to the New York Times on Israel's Attack Plan for Iran - Seth Mandel ( Commentary)
The revelation in the New York Times of Israel's plan for a strike on Iran's nuclear program was published at this moment to obstruct future U.S. and Israeli policy by divulging enough details of Israel's plans to help Iran protect its nuclear sites - telling the Iranians what to expect.
The idea is to force a delay in a possible future strike on Iran until Iranian air defenses have been rebuilt.
Within Trump's national-security inner circle are those who don't prioritize stopping Iran's nuclear-weapons capability.
They don't see Iran's nuclear program as much of a threat, and they are comfortable with Iranian hegemony over our allies and over the region's shipping lanes.
Kicking the can down the road is exactly what this is all about.
Trump has been convinced to try his hand at negotiating with Ayatollah Khamenei, who will walk away from the table as soon as Iran's defenses are in better shape.
Israeli Officials: Leak to New York Times on Iran Attack "Inaccurate" - Mati Tuchfeld ( Israel Hayom)
Senior Israeli officials claim that details reported by the New York Times regarding an Israeli plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities were "inaccurate, to say the least."
They believe the leak came from officials within the U.S. administration seeking to block any possibility of military action against Iran.
New York Times Report Is Part of Trump's Iran Negotiations - Vice Adm. (ret.) Eliezer Marom ( Israel Hayom)
The publication in the New York Times discussing Israeli plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities is part of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, clarifying to the Iranians that there is a real attack plan that Trump stopped at the last moment to conduct negotiations.
The writer served as commander of the Israeli Navy.
Why Are Israelis Happy? - Prof. Sam Lehman-Wilzig ( Times of Israel)
Israel has been fighting a brutal war for over a year and a half - after a horrendous massacre of its citizens - and then we read: among all the world's nations, Israel ranks 8th from the top in happiness.
One element in this is that we have each other's back.
Israeli HMOs periodically call their elderly members to see how they're doing.
The country has a huge number of voluntary philanthropic organizations.
Ordinary citizens come to the aid of people being attacked. Oct. 7, 2023 was the most recent case, with Israeli citizens going toward the Gaza envelope that morning to fight Hamas terrorists.
The writer, who taught at Bar-Ilan University (1977-2017), presently serves as Academic Head of the Communications Department at the Peres Academic Center (Rehovot).
|
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- U.S. to Withdraw 600 Troops from Syria, Leaving Fewer than 1,000 - Tara Copp
The U.S. will withdraw 600 troops from Syria, leaving fewer than 1,000 to work with Kurdish allies to counter the Islamic State, a U.S. official said Thursday. The departure of the 600 troops will return force levels to where they had been for years to ensure that IS militants did not regain a foothold, and also to prevent Iranian-backed militants from trafficking weapons across southern Syria. The number of U.S. troops was raised to more than 2,000 after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas in Israel, as Iranian-backed militants targeted U.S. troops and interests in the region. (AP-Washington Post)
See also U.S. to Reduce Forces in Syria - Howard Altman
U.S. forces in Syria are mostly based in the northeast with the stated mission of continuing the fight against ISIS. There is also a base in southern Syria, Al-Tanf, located along the borders of Jordan and Iraq. The way forward for a drawdown was created by the overthrow last December of dictator Bashar Al-Assad.
The U.S. military and intelligence communities have "established a fruitful relationship" with the new Syrian government, including sharing intelligence that helped take out "multiple senior ISIS leaders and foiling 9 major urban plots," said Charles Lister, Director of the Middle East Institute's Syria Program.
However, a senior Israel Defense Forces officer said Wednesday, "The U.S. presence in northeastern Syria has functioned...also as a geostrategic buffer constraining Iranian entrenchment west of the Euphrates. A reduction in this presence will likely carry profound strategic consequences for Israel."
The reduction in U.S. troop presence in Syria "would create operational space for Iranian proxies, particularly the IRGC and Hizbullah, to solidify logistical corridors through Syria - part of Tehran's broader objective to establish a contiguous axis of influence from Iran to the Mediterranean."
"This could require an intensification of Israeli kinetic operations across Syrian territory, including strategic interdicts on weapons transfers, Quds Force deployments, and the construction of forward-operating infrastructure near the Golan Heights."
Middle East analyst Mohammed Albasha said, "Any time the U.S. reduces its footprint in the Middle East, Iran sees it as a win - consistent with its long-standing goal of pushing the U.S. out of the region." (The War Zone)
- U.S. Toughens Demands on Syria's New Islamist-Led Leadership - Jared Malsin
The U.S. is demanding that Syria's new Islamist-led government crack down on extremists and expel Palestinian militants in return for a limited easing of sanctions, U.S. officials said.
A State Department spokeswoman said, "The United States currently does not recognize any entity as the government of Syria....Syria's interim authorities should fully renounce and suppress terrorism." (Wall Street Journal)
See also Syria's New Leader Was Imprisoned by the U.S. in Iraq for Five Years - Ahmad Sharawi
Sabereen News - affiliated with Iran-backed militias in Iraq - released documents outlining the detention of Syrian interim President Ahmad al Sharaa, who was apprehended by U.S. forces in Iraq on May 14, 2005.
He remained in the U.S.-run Bucca Prison until April 6, 2010, when he was handed over to Iraqi authorities and ultimately released on March 13, 2011. (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
- Lebanon's Government Arrests Militants, Asserting Its Authority - Omar Abdel-Baqui
Lebanese authorities said they arrested several people who launched rockets toward Israel last month,
showing that the state is becoming bolder about taking on militant groups that have destabilized the country. The government's power has been growing in the wake of Israeli operations that wiped out Hizbullah's top leadership and devastated its ranks and arsenal.
"The Lebanese military has historically tried to avoid head-on confrontations with Hizbullah," said Randa Slim, a fellow at the Johns Hopkins University-based Foreign Policy Institute. "Its disarmament of Hizbullah in the south is being done in coordination - or at least without the rejection of - Hizbullah."
"Hizbullah feels it is under siege from every direction. They have mostly lost their smuggling channels through the Syrian border and the airport, Israel continues to attack them by air, and now even the Lebanese government, which long turned a blind eye, is part of the siege." (Wall Street Journal)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- One Soldier Killed, 3 Wounded in Hamas Buffer Zone Attack - Yoav Zitun
On Saturday, terrorists emerged from a tunnel that had recently been located and marked for demolition and fired a rocket-propelled grenade at a vehicle carrying two female soldiers in a combat reconnaissance unit in what was considered a safer administrative corridor. When a
rescue team arrived at the scene, an IED exploded, killing Warrant Officer G'haleb Sliman Alnasasra, 35, a Bedouin tracker - the first IDF combat fatality in Gaza in three months.
(Ynet News)
- Houthi Missile Fire at Israel Continues Friday
Sirens were activated across central Israel and the Jerusalem area early Friday after the Houthis in Yemen fired a ballistic missile at Israel. The IDF intercepted the missile outside Israeli airspace.
(Ynet News)
- Israel to Indict 22 Hamas Terrorists Who Participated in Oct. 7 Massacre - Netanel Bendel
Israel's prosecution prepared indictments against 22 Hamas terrorists from its Nukhba force who took part in the massacre at Kibbutz Nir Oz on Oct. 7. The charges were made possible after new evidence was obtained by military intelligence and the Israel Security Agency from computers in Gaza.
There are 300 terrorists who took part in the massacre in a variety of capacities who are currently held by Israel. According to the government, these terrorists would not be included in any exchange that would be part of a hostage release deal and are to be put on trial.
(Ynet News)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- Expert: Iran Feels It Has the Upper Hand in Negotiations with the U.S. - Peled Arbeli
Beni Sabti, an Iran expert and researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, said Sunday, "Israel is pushing toward a certain path, and the United States has become Iran's advocate, blocking that path. In the eyes of the Iranians, it's very important to highlight that the Trump administration is working for them, not against them. That's why they're positive about this approach."
"For many weeks after Trump's election, they felt fear. Prices rose, and there was psychological pressure on the regime. Now, the Iranians suddenly feel emboldened. And things aren't as severe as they initially seemed. Trump doesn't speak against the regime itself at all, so they feel empowered and believe they can move forward with very minimal concessions." From Iran's perspective, the regime enters today's negotiations "feeling that they have the upper hand."
"Of course, the public doesn't enjoy this at all. From the public's perspective, the regime needs to be destroyed, bombed, and the nuclear facilities attacked, not just minimal steps. The regime is the problem from the public's point of view." (Jerusalem Post)
- Iran Sees Rome Talks as Major Diplomatic Win - Danny Zaken
From Iran's point of view, the Rome talks are seen as a major diplomatic win. The Omani Foreign Ministry's statement, reflecting the official positions of both parties, outlines the core principles of the emerging agreement: elimination of Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, alongside permission to continue developing civilian nuclear energy.
This language suggests that the Americans have, at least for now, abandoned several of the fundamental demands that were emphasized before negotiations began. Chief among these were: a complete halt to uranium enrichment; termination of the ballistic missile program capable of delivering nuclear warheads; and ending support for regional terrorist organizations.
However, a senior international source told Israel Hayom that the American delegation, led by Steve Witkoff, has defined as off-limits all industries and developments related to nuclear weapons. This includes warhead development, the mechanism intended to detonate a nuclear charge inside a missile, as well as missiles specifically designed to carry such warheads.
Behind the scenes, the deal's opponents, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are warning against a deal resembling the one signed by the Obama administration, and questioning how Trump, who annulled that agreement in 2019, could now endorse something similar.
This position, which mirrors Israel's stance, is also supported by Western intelligence agencies, including those of Germany and the UK, which have expressed serious doubts about both the enforceability of any agreement and Iran's long-term willingness to comply with its terms.
(Israel Hayom)
Israel-UK Relations
- Israeli Foreign Minister: "It's in UK's Interest that Radical Islamists Are Defeated in Middle East" - Allister Heath
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said during a recent visit to Britain, "The UK is a good friend of Israel. For us, it is important to keep this friendship....In my conversations with the Foreign Secretary, I bring a very accurate and frank approach when I think that the British position should be, let's say, more friendly to Israel, or take into greater consideration our reality, the neighborhood we are living in."
"When terrorists from Hamas or Islamic Jihad are acting from a hospital, and we take all the measures, including warning and evacuating people from there to avoid any unnecessary collateral damage, eventually, the question that should be asked is not why we attack, but why Hamas are using hospitals or schools or UNRWA installations to attack Israel and its citizens. We don't always feel that we are getting the right context."
"We not only have a traditional friendship, but also very important connections that help UK national security through intelligence and security cooperation. Both countries benefit from a good relationship."
Responding to Emmanuel Macron's announcement that the French are proposing to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state, Sa'ar said, "They will not create a Palestinian state by this wishful or imaginary decision." He pointed out that many countries have recognized a Palestinian state, but that it hasn't changed the "reality on the ground." He worries that it would remove the Palestinians' incentives to compromise or negotiate. "It will decrease the chances of achieving peace and stability in the future. Palestinians are working in multilateral forums and the international arena to isolate and harm Israel, not to have peace."
"Jihadism is a common threat to all of Western civilization, including the UK. We are fighting to defend ourselves. But while doing so, we are also fighting the fight of all the Western world, and this is something important for me to say to UK citizens, because I know that most of them perfectly understand the danger, the deep danger of such an extremist ideology....It is clearly in the interest of Europe, of the UK, that the radical Islamists in the Middle East be defeated." (Telegraph-UK)
Observations:
- Some 36 out of more than 300 members of the Board of Deputies of British Jews published a letter in the Financial Times on Wednesday rebuking Israel's military response to the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. The Jewish religion and culture values disagreement. But the letter marks a deeply regrettable moment because it presents personal ideology as communal leadership.
- It is entirely legitimate for Jews and anyone in the world to criticize Israeli policy, including during wartime. Jewish tradition has long prized argument, debate, and conscience. But it must not - particularly in times of war - blur the moral lines between those who defend life and those who seek its destruction.
- The signatories claim that "Jewish values" are on their side - that war is inherently at odds with Judaism, and that diplomacy alone offers a path forward. But this is a selective reading of our tradition. Jewish values embrace both compassion and realism.
- The Torah commands us to pursue peace, yes - but it also commands us to defend life, to confront evil, and to understand that in a world where enemies plot genocide, force is sometimes not only justified but required. Ecclesiastes teaches, "There is a time for war and a time for peace." The signatories would have us believe that Judaism demands surrender. It does not.
- Their central claim - that diplomacy alone, not military action, has saved hostages - is historically and logically flawed. Every negotiated release of hostages has taken place under the shadow of Israeli military pressure. Hamas has never released hostages out of goodwill; it has done so because it has feared the consequences of continued defiance. Diplomacy works when backed by credible strength.
Without it, there is no leverage - only wishful thinking.
- The Israeli government did not "choose" to return to war, as if it were an option freely available. Rather, it resumed military action after Hamas repeatedly violated ceasefires, paraded hostages for propaganda, and rejected further disarmament proposals. Ignoring these facts is a refusal to deal with reality.
- The dilemmas faced by Israel's leaders are excruciating. Every option is dreadful. But to pretend that there is an easy, bloodless alternative is not an act of conscience. It is an abdication of solidarity. In a time of war, clarity - about who we are, what we believe, and whom we stand with - is not just necessary. It is an obligation.
Daily Alert is published on Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.
This issue of Daily Alert was produced in Israel on Isru Hag.
Unsubscribe from Daily Alert. |