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In-Depth Issues:
Iran "Hiding Thousands" of Centrifuges to Build Nuclear Bomb - Paul Nuki
( Telegraph-UK)
Iran has hidden sites housing "hundreds if not thousands" of advanced centrifuges capable of producing weapons-grade uranium, Sima Shine, a former research director at Israel's Mossad and an expert on Iran's nuclear program, told the Telegraph.
The regime also moved much of its highly enriched uranium to a secret location before the U.S. bombed three known nuclear facilities.
"They cannot do anything now, tomorrow, but in the future, they have all the capabilities" to build a bomb.
Shine said there was "no doubt" Israeli and U.S. aircraft had inflicted "huge damage" to Iran's known nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, but that other secret facilities almost certainly existed.
Shine said that in addition to the 60%-enriched uranium, Iran has tons of uranium enriched to 25% that could also be brought up to weapons grade if they retain the centrifuges to do it.
Israel Phoned Senior Iranian Officials with Warnings - Warren P. Strobel ( Washington Post)
After Israel launched its first wave of strikes against Iran on June 13, killing top military leaders and nuclear scientists, Persian-speaking Israeli intelligence operatives phoned senior Iranian officials on their cellphones and warned them that they, too, would die unless they ceased supporting the regime.
"I can advise you now, you have 12 hours to escape with your wife and child. Otherwise, you're on our list right now," an Israeli intelligence operative told a senior Iranian general, according to an audio recording.
An Israeli official said some senior Iranian figures received a warning letter under their door, some received a phone call directly, and others were contacted via their spouses.
"They fully understand that they are transparent and known to us and that our intelligence penetration is 100%."
War with Iran Brings Legitimacy to Military Action to Prevent Proliferation - Efraim Inbar ( Jerusalem Post)
President Trump decided to capitalize on the Israeli successes in their air campaign against Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
The American bombing - the first time the U.S. used force in a counterproliferation mode - serves as a potent warning. We can detect a change in the international legitimacy awarded to military action to prevent proliferation.
This is at the expense of the blind belief in the supremacy of diplomacy and the widespread aversion to war.
The writer is a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
Germany: Iranian Quest for Bomb "Can No Longer Be Seriously Disputed" ( Reuters)
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Monday, "There is no reason for us, or for me personally, to criticize what Israel started a week ago [in Iran], nor is there any reason to criticize what America did last weekend."
"Leaving it as it was wasn't an option," Merz said. "The evidence that Iran is continuing on its path to building a nuclear weapon can no longer be seriously disputed."
Hizbullah Remains on the Sidelines despite the U.S. Strike on Iran - Lt.-Col. (ret.) Orna Mizrahi ( Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
Even after the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Hizbullah has remained outside the circle of the war.
Hizbullah harshly condemned the U.S. and vowed full support for Iran to confront Israeli and American aggression.
However, Lebanese sources quoted in Asharq Al-Awsat claimed that Israel was trying to drag Lebanon into war, while Hizbullah remains firm in its decision to avoid involvement.
Hizbullah is still recovering from its defeat in the war with Israel and wishes to focus first on rebuilding its capabilities and status. Any action against Israel or the U.S. would lead to further loss of assets.
Moreover, the Israeli military campaign against Hizbullah, occurring simultaneously with the war against Iran, significantly hampers its ability to act.
In recent days, several Hizbullah operatives were killed and its infrastructure in southern Lebanon was targeted.
The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served for 26 years in the IDF and 12 years at the National Security Council in the Prime Minister's Office.
Initiative to Impose EU Sanctions on Israel Blocked - Itamar Eichner ( Ynet News)
On Monday, Spain, Ireland and Slovenia led an initiative in Brussels to suspend the "association agreement" between Israel and the EU.
However, opposition by Germany, Italy, Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, Lithuania, Greece and other countries blocked any decision on the measure.
A diplomatic source in Israel noted that the fighting against Iran and its close ties with the U.S. have strengthened Israel's standing in the eyes of some European countries.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called the initiative an absurd and distorted move that discriminates against Israel at a time when it is in an existential war.
Diplomatic sources claimed that "the Europeans are concerned about the Iranian threat," and therefore opposed the Spanish effort.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Iran Retaliates by Firing Missiles at U.S. Base in Qatar, No Injuries - Farnaz Fassihi
Iran launched 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the American attack on three Iranian nuclear sites, but they caused no casualties as 13 were intercepted. President Trump, saying that Iran had given advance warning of the strike, immediately thanked Tehran "for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured."
Trump described Iran's barrage in Qatar as "a very weak response" and said he hoped "they've gotten it all out of their system." Later, he announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. (New York Times)
- New Images Show Iran's Nuclear Ambitions in Ruins - Melanie Swan
U.S. strikes on Iran may have set the country's nuclear program back by several years, according to preliminary expert analysis. It is probable that all three facilities targeted suffered extensive damage.
Satellite images of convoys leaving all three sites in recent days support Iran's claims that it moved its 400-kg. stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons grade to a secret underground location shortly before the strikes. But the damage inflicted elsewhere would still make it difficult to turn the uranium into a bomb.
Mick Mulroy, a former Pentagon official who served in the first Trump administration, told the New York Times that the U.S. strikes will "likely set back the Iranian nuclear program two to five years." Repairing the damage will be far harder following the assassination of more than a dozen nuclear scientists in the past 10 days, Israeli officials said. (Telegraph-UK)
- Israel Seeks to Wrap Up Fighting with Iran - Dov Lieber
Israel is looking to wrap up its war with Iran soon, Israeli and Arab officials said, capitalizing on the unprecedented U.S. attack on key Iranian nuclear sites. Israel expects to complete strikes on its list of top military targets in Iran in the coming days.
Even if a diplomatic deal is reached with Tehran, Israel is prepared to strike Iran in the future if the regime moves to reconstitute its nuclear-enrichment program or build up its ballistic-missile arsenal, Israeli officials said. (Wall Street Journal)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- After Ceasefire Announcement, Iran Fires Multiple Missile Barrages at Israel; 4 Killed, 20 Wounded - Amichai Stein
Four people were killed and at least 20 were wounded in Beersheba on Tuesday morning when an Iranian missile struck a seven-story apartment building, as Iran launched six waves of missiles at Israel. (Jerusalem Post)
See also Israel Shoots Down Two Missiles Fired by Iran after Ceasefire - Yonah Jeremy Bob (Jerusalem Post)
See also Video: Dashcam Shows Iranian Missile Strike in Ashdod, Israel (Fox News)
- Netanyahu: Israel Has Achieved All of Its Objectives in Iran
Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Security Cabinet Monday night that Israel has achieved all of the objectives of Operation Rising Lion, and much more. Israel has removed a double existential threat - on both the nuclear issue and regarding ballistic missiles. The IDF also achieved complete air superiority in the skies over Tehran, struck a severe blow to the military leadership, and destroyed dozens of Iran's main regime targets.
Israel thanks President Trump and the U.S. for their defensive support and for their participation in removing the Iranian nuclear threat. In light of having achieved the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel agrees to the President's proposal for a bilateral ceasefire. Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire.
(Prime Minister's Office)
- Israel: Hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Forces Killed in Airstrikes - Amichai Stein
Hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed by Israeli strikes across Tehran on Monday. Israeli fighter jets struck military command centers belonging to the Iranian regime including Basij headquarters and Evin Prison which houses political prisoners. The Basij is a paramilitary militia that is part of the IRGC.
Iranian internal security forces were also hit.
(Jerusalem Post)
- Caught in the Crossfire, Jordan (Quietly) Shields Israel - Nurit Yohanan
For the past 11 days, the kingdom of Jordan has been caught in the middle of the Israel-Iran war, its airspace turned into a battleground where ballistic missiles meet interceptors and drones are knocked out of the sky. Falling missile debris, interceptor shrapnel, and explosive drones have injured several Jordanians and caused significant property damage.
According to Jordan's National Center for Security and Crisis Management, around 100 pieces of shrapnel from drones or missiles landed in Jordan during the first seven days of the war.
There is widespread speculation that the Jordanian military is intercepting some of the missiles and drones en route to Israel.
Jordan's King Abdullah is seeking to protect the kingdom's citizens and its pro-Western national security interests behind the scenes, while being careful in public to avoid appearing too closely aligned with Israel. (Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
War with Iran
- The U.S. Strike on Iran Was Probably the Right Move. We May Need to Do It Again - Emily Harding
President Trump's decision to bomb three of Iran's nuclear sites was a targeted effort at a narrow goal.
Israel repeatedly said it had a plan to finish the fight itself, but the U.S. joining with its heavier weapons adds certainty that the destruction would be extensive.
Iran's leaders are, in practice, more cautious than their bellicose and bombastic rhetoric suggests. Their primary interest is the survival of their regime. Their strike Monday against Qatar fits the pattern: They publicly demonstrate their retaliation, but with no casualties. They threaten, but their actions tell a different story.
Instead of a robust retaliation against the U.S., Iran will likely spend most of its energy learning what survives under the rubble of its nuclear program and trying to regain some of its shaky regional position.
Washington should demand immediate inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities to ascertain the damage. If Iran does not allow it, Washington should be prepared to strike again. The skies over Iran are still clear, thanks to Israel dismantling Iran's air defenses.
Israel's efforts to degrade Iran's defenses have been more successful than anticipated. Now the U.S. can consolidate its gains and lay the groundwork for a more peaceful, sustainable future, free of Iranian terrorist proxy networks backed by the looming threat of a nuclear weapon.
The writer, a former Iran director at the U.S. National Security Council (2007-8), is director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. (Washington Post)
- No, U.S. Strikes on Iran Are Not the Start of a New "Forever War" in the Middle East - Maj. (ret.) John Spencer
Iran is not Iraq. It is not Afghanistan. This is not the same war. Israel and the U.S. are not talking about regime change. This is preemption. The mission is clear and limited. It is to irreversibly destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program, not to occupy Tehran, rebuild Iran's government, or democratize the Middle East.
I was on the ground in Iraq as an American soldier, sent on missions to find weapons of mass destruction that were not there. That is not the case with Iran. The IAEA has verified uranium enriched to 83.7%. It has documented missing stockpiles and hidden facilities.
The U.S. is not at war with Iran, but it carried out a singular, strategic strike that only it could conduct, targeting Iran's most hardened and deeply buried nuclear enrichment facilities. This was not just about assisting an ally. It was about doing what only the U.S. could do to stop the Islamic Republic from becoming a nuclear-armed state.
This was not a prelude to war. It was a deliberate, proportional military action to send a clear signal. Iran's path to a nuclear bomb will not be tolerated. This was not a hypothetical threat. It was real, immediate, and accelerating.
Waiting did not reduce the threat. It allowed it to harden. Every day of delay gave Iran more time to disperse its program, develop more advanced delivery systems, and raise the cost of future action. The window to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran was closing. Acting when we did was not escalation. It was prevention.
The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point. (Jerusalem Post)
- Iran's Feeble Retaliation Shows How Damaged the Khamenei Regime Is - Editorial
Iran fired 14 ballistic missiles at U.S. troops in Qatar on Monday, and in typical fashion claimed to have "destroyed the American air base" in retaliation for U.S. strikes on three nuclear sites. Here on Planet Earth, the base was already substantially evacuated and the missiles were intercepted with no casualties reported. All sides said Iran gave advance notice that the attacks were coming.
This was Persian Kabuki theater, and it would be laughable if real missiles weren't aimed at Americans. It's also no small matter to fire on Qatar, the friendliest state to Iran in the region, or at U.S. Central Command's regional headquarters.
For all the predictions that a strike on Iran would almost certainly result in thousands of American deaths and set off World War III, Iran strongly signaled it doesn't want the fight. Israel has aggressively targeted Iran's missile launchers, and Iranian salvos shrink each day.
Iran appears to have lost its nuclear enrichment and weaponization facilities, its leading military commanders and nuclear scientists, and much of its missile production and launch capacity. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made clear that Israel won't return to a status quo in which Iran or its proxy militias endanger its existence. Israel is signaling it is prepared to strike again if Iran insists on rebuilding its missile and nuclear capabilities.
(Wall Street Journal)
- Trump's Iran Strike Looks Judicious and Pragmatic - Gerard Baker
The U.S. strikes on the nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan seem not only defensible but urgent and necessary. No one seriously doubts the Iran nuclear threat. We can quibble about the pace at which the mullahs are pursuing the capability. But while they might have disguised their progress, the evidence is clear that nuclear capability is a line they plan to cross in a way that would change U.S. security interests forever.
Iran has been in a direct and proxy war with us for years. The near-impunity with which the regime in Tehran has been able to kill Americans in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere has been a dangerous demonstration of American weakness. Most of the retaliatory capabilities Iran has nurtured as a deterrent to any attack against it have been neutralized or compromised by Israel's astonishingly brave and successful operations.
Far from America now going to war at Benjamin Netanyahu's demand, as some say, the U.S. is entering a fight in our national interest in which our ally has already done almost all the heavy lifting and made almost all the sacrifices. (Wall Street Journal)
- A Safe and Secure Israel Helps Us Have a Safe and Secure America - Nikki Haley
The U.S. actions in Iran were important for America. We've watched the Iranian regime say for years, "Death to America." We know the Iranians were enriching uranium; we know that, based on the materials that they had, they had the ability to develop multiple bombs. They were becoming an increasingly stronger threat through the use of their proxies. It was important for President Trump to do this to protect Americans from any future threats from Iran.
Those in America should understand that those strikes were a move to keep Americans safer. That was a move to take out one of the threats that Iran has used against Americans for years.
You have to believe terrorists when they tell you something. When Iran continued to say, "Death to America," they meant it.
For us to think that more talks would have changed things is naive. We said, "We're done talking, we gave you the opportunity, you didn't take it, now it's time for us to take action on our own to protect Americans and protect Israelis." That was the right thing to do. If Trump had not followed up with these strikes, we would be dealing with Iran and their nuclear threats for years to come.
The writer is a former U.S. ambassador to the UN.
(Israel Hayom)
- Israel Was Obliged to Launch a Preemptive War to Counter an Existential Threat - Amb. Freddy Eytan
For 46 years, Iran has poisoned international affairs and, with the help of its Shiite and Sunni satellites, sabotaged every peace agreement with Arab countries. How can we forget the hostage-taking of diplomats at the American embassy in Tehran, and the long list of terrorist attacks, notably against American Marines and French paratroopers in Beirut? The deadly attacks against the Israeli embassy and against the Jewish community in Buenos Aires and elsewhere?
Faced with Western laxity and impotence, Israel found itself obliged to launch a preemptive war to counter the existential threat. Since April 2024, Iran has fired more than 700 missiles and launched hundreds of drones against Israel's civilian population.
Worse still, the ayatollahs have 450 kilos of uranium enriched to more than 60%. They are capable of manufacturing several "dirty bombs," an explosive device that disperses radioactive material and contaminates a geographical area, causing serious injuries and widespread damage.
The writer, a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, is a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who was Israel's first ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania.
(Israel Hayom)
The Gaza War
- Sinwar's March of Folly - Jeffrey Goldberg
Yahya Sinwar, until recently the leader of Hamas in Gaza, overestimated his own capabilities and those of the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance." Like the leaders of Iran, he spoke violently and with great confidence. He allowed his reasoning capabilities to be overwhelmed by conspiracism and supremacist Muslim Brotherhood theology. He also underestimated the desire of Israelis to live in their ancestral homeland, basing his conclusion on an incorrect understanding of how Israel sees itself.
Hamas and other Palestinian groups believe that Israelis see themselves as foreign implants, and therefore can easily be brought to defeat. Sinwar's misplaced confidence in theories of settler colonialism and Jewish perfidy undermined his strategic effectiveness.
Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem, explained the root of this misapprehension. "The problem with Sinwar is that he believed his own propaganda. He believed that we ourselves believe that we don't belong here. Our enemies in the Arab and Muslim worlds don't understand that their perception of Israel and of Jews is based on a lie."
Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saw Israel as they wished it was, not as it actually is. (Atlantic)
Observations:
- History will remember these eleven days as one of the greatest diplomatic and military achievements in Israel's history.
- The murder on Tuesday of four civilians in Beersheba leaves a bitter taste in the mouth, just as the murder of 25 peaceful civilians who paid with their lives, and the thousands left homeless or severely affected, does.
- But in terms of results, the nuclear threat that loomed over Israel - one that would have certainly led to the Jewish state's destruction - has been eliminated.
- A regime willing to target civilians with conventional explosives would have done so without hesitation using a nuclear missile. And it was accomplished without a single aircraft being downed, with all our planes returning safely to base - contrary to all forecasts.
- The number of casualties on the home front was 97% lower than initial estimates, thanks to the practical dismantling of the ballistic missile system, which will take years to rebuild.
- Those who experience a miracle don't always recognize it as such, especially not in the hours when survivors are still being searched for under the rubble. But with time, the historical significance of what happened here will become clear. And so will the fact that Israel stood firm on the Begin Doctrine: never to allow any country to acquire nuclear weapons.
The writer is the political commentator of Israel's Channel 12 news.
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