IDF: We Pushed Iran's Nuclear Program Back by Years - Yonah Jeremy Bob (Jerusalem Post)
    IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Effie Defrin said Wednesday, "We fulfilled all of the goals of the operation [against Iran], even more than expected."
    "The estimate is that we substantially harmed the nuclear program... we set it back years. I repeat: years backwards."
    Defrin said there was an Iran before this Israeli operation which was close to breaking out to a nuclear weapon, and there is now an Iran after the operation which is far from breaking out to a nuclear weapon.

Iran Preferred to Surrender to the Great Satan - Ron Ben-Yishai (Ynet News)
    Israel must ensure that Iran is not attempting a rapid breakout toward a basic nuclear weapon, such as a crude "dirty bomb" - using its remaining stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and several hundred advanced centrifuges reportedly hidden away.
    As a result, Israel must now ramp up intelligence-gathering efforts in close coordination with the U.S. to verify how much high-level enriched uranium Iran still has, potentially enabling a swift nuclear breakout.
    Another key focus is Iran's remaining missile capabilities. It's possible Iran also retains significant offensive capacity with cruse missiles and drones.
    Negotiations over a new nuclear deal could take several months. If the results are unsatisfactory from Israel's perspective, or if Iran drags its feet, another military confrontation may be necessary.
    It seems the Iranian leadership signaled their desire for a "dignified" ceasefire once they opted for a weak, pre-coordinated response to the U.S. strike.
    This may not have been a traditional white-flag surrender, but Iran's move to let Washington know it sought to avoid escalation was a capitulation in all but name.
    It's likely that the American strike accelerated the end of the war because surrendering to U.S. military pressure is considered more "honorable" than backing down in the face of Israeli strikes.
    In the eyes of the Iranian regime, conceding to the "Great Satan" - the world's most powerful superpower - does less damage to its image and internal stability than appearing to fold before the "Little Satan," Israel.

Israeli Source: "We Know Where Iran's Enriched Uranium Is" - Lior Ben Ari (Ynet News)
    An Israeli security source told Saudi channel Al-Hadath that most of Iran's enriched uranium is "buried under the ruins" of nuclear sites.
    "We know exactly where Iran moved its enriched uranium, but we will not attack it to avoid causing a nuclear disaster," the source said, emphasizing that "Iran's nuclear capabilities, infrastructure, facilities and centrifuges have been destroyed."

Iran Likely Cannot Build Nuclear Weapons Now - Andrea Stricker (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
    Iran likely lacks the option to build nuclear weapons in the short term due to Israeli strikes that damaged Tehran's weaponization capabilities extensively.
    Israel struck numerous weaponization facilities, equipment, atomic weapons components, and documentation, and assassinated at least 14 nuclear scientists.
    Israel has penetrated Iran's atomic weapons program and activities so deeply that Israel would likely detect Iran building nuclear weapons, an action that would probably invite additional, massive U.S. and Israeli strikes.
    The writer is a research fellow and deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the FDD.

Iran Claims It Forced Israel into Ceasefire - Afshin Madadi (Telegraph-UK)
    Iran said it had forced Israel into a ceasefire after 12 days of heavy fighting.
    State television claimed the Islamic Republic's "successful resistance" had "imposed a ceasefire on the enemy."
    Iran also claimed its missile strike on the Al Udeid U.S. base in Qatar had prompted President Trump to call for an end to the war.
    See also Tehran Endures Night of Heavy Attacks before Ceasefire Is Announced - Farnaz Fassihi (New York Times)
    In the hours before a ceasefire between Israel and Iran went into effect Tuesday morning, Tehran was pounded by the most intense and sustained airstrikes since the war started on June 13, residents said.

Iran's Fordow Nuclear Site Likely Sealed Up before B-2 Strikes - Joseph Trevithick (War Zone)
    Satellite imagery shows evidence that Iran took steps to seal off its nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow in the days leading up to the U.S. strikes, which would have shielded it against a potential ground raid.
    This may have factored into the final decision to launch bunker buster bombs as the remaining viable option for attacking the facility.

How the Mossad Infiltrated Iran - Saul Sadka (Jewish Chronicle-UK)
    How is it that Israel, a country more than a thousand kilometers away, can operate so freely within Iran, one of the most tightly surveilled, repressive regimes in the Middle East - where any captured agent faces certain torture and death?
    In reality, Iran is a fractured state, holding together a volatile patchwork of discontented ethnic and religious groups under the banner of a decaying revolutionary ideology.
    Only about 48% of Iran's population is ethnically Persian. The remaining 52% is made up of Azeris, Kurds, Arabs, Balochs, Lurs, Turkmen, and others, many of whom harbor deep resentment toward the Persian-dominated regime.
    These groups maintain strong cross-border ties with neighboring populations, making them natural allies for foreign intelligence agencies and enemies of Tehran.
    Most people living in the border regions feel more loyal to their trans-border tribe or ethnicity than to the Islamic Republic.
    Iran's geography also aids infiltration: its vast mountainous borders are impossible to seal hermetically.
    The Revolutionary Guard, the regime's backbone, has become a retirement club for ageing, overweight men in their 60s and 70s. These are the original 1979 revolutionaries.