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Jerusalem Center for Security
and Foreign Affairs
DAILY ALERT
Tuesday,
October 28, 2025
In-Depth Issues:

Do Qatar and Turkey Really Want to See Hamas Disarmed? - Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser (Jewish Chronicle-UK)
    President Trump has succeeded in gathering mediators, including Qatar and Turkey, to pressure Hamas into implementing the rest of the peace agreement.
    But it is not yet clear if they have the wherewithal to push Hamas to give up its weapons, its terror infrastructure, or its status as the ruler of Gaza.
    Qatar and Turkey have conflicting interests since they would like to see Hamas stay in power because they ideologically support the terror group.
    However, if the world does not pressure Hamas to disarm, Israel will likely feel the need to step in and forcibly disarm Hamas to prevent another attack and to ensure Oct. 7 is remembered in Palestinian history as a failure.
    The writer, former head of the research division of IDF Military Intelligence, leads the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.


Turkey's Road to Middle East Hegemony Runs Through Gaza - Zvi Bar'el (Ha'aretz)
    In the past decade, Turkey has become a regional power, competing with Israel not only in the Syrian and Palestinian arenas, but across the Middle East and beyond.
    Ankara has established dozens of army bases in Libya and Qatar, Somalia and Iraq. It has conquered territory in northern Syria and has erected training bases for the new Syrian army.
    Turkey has a military presence in Azerbaijan and Djibouti, and dozens of its soldiers serving in UNIFIL in Lebanon.
    Turkey is already deeply involved in Gaza. Turkish aid organizations such as the IHH, which initiated the deadly Mavi Marmara flotilla in 2010, now deal, among other things, with clearing rubble from the streets of Gaza.


On Hizbullah's Disarmament, Israel Will Not Compromise - David Schenker (National Interest)
    Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire to end the Hizbullah-Israel war in November 2024. In the deal, Beirut committed to disarm Hizbullah.
    Today, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) is collecting weapons and dismantling Hizbullah infrastructure in the south of the country, but Beirut is balking about undertaking its obligations in the north.
    Fearing civil war, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun started talking about "containing" Hizbullah's weapons north of the Litani.
    Yet there will be no peace, no sovereignty, and no reconstruction for postwar Lebanon absent the confiscation of Hizbullah weapons.
    Hizbullah is currently at its weakest point, but left intact, it will certainly reconstitute.
    The writer, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (2019-21).


Mini-Series "Red Alert" Chronicles the Hamas Oct. 7 Attack from the View of Four Families - Memphis Barker (Telegraph-UK)
    Hollywood producer Lawrence Bender, 68, from a Jewish family in the Bronx, has produced a taut, gut-wrenching four-part drama series, "Red Alert," which chronicles the Hamas terror attack from the perspective of four families caught up in the horror.
    "We just wanted people to see what it's like to be an ordinary, everyday person and be woken up by a terrorist in your house," says Bender.
    We meet a family taking refuge in their safe room in Kibbutz Nir Oz; an Arab man driving near Gaza with his family; a husband and wife from the security forces separated in the chaos; and a mother evacuating the wounded as she searches for her son.
    "They're basically all family stories," says Bender, who was nominated for an Oscar three times. "We wanted to show real heroes."
    The purpose of "Red Alert," says Bender, is to expand the audience that is aware of the events of the day, rather than relay them blow for blow. "It's just too triggering. It's too much."
    He felt a drama would be the most appropriate vehicle to convey a message instead of a documentary.
    "I thought, the people who would not normally go see a documentary might see this. You know, it's called 'Red Alert.' In a sense, it's a thriller. But when you watch it, it actually becomes very emotional, and you realize it's the truth."


Hamas Plots in Europe - Matthew Levitt (Combating Terrorism Center-West Point)
    Hamas has come close to carrying out attacks abroad several times, but these were either thwarted or aborted before execution.
    Recent criminal cases in Germany and Denmark reveal that Hamas set in motion contingency planning for possible attacks in Europe several years before the Oct. 7 massacre, including stashing small arms in weapons caches in multiple European countries.
    Following Oct. 7, leaders of Hamas's Qassam Brigades based in Lebanon sent operatives to find these weapons, while others in Denmark were tasked to work with a European organized crime group to procure drones and plot attacks in Denmark or Sweden.


Hamas's Use of Human Shields (Israel Defense Forces)
    Over the last two years, the IDF has found rocket launchers, weapons storage, and operational headquarters within schools, mosques, children's bedrooms, and hospitals.
    There was a clear strategy to place civilians as close to danger as possible in an attempt to hide terror operations and create serious complications for IDF missions.
    Throughout the war, the IDF kept uncovering shocking examples of Hamas's blatant abuse of its civilians to facilitate its terror goals.


Locked Out: FATF Maintains Iran as High-Risk Jurisdiction - Ella Rosenberg (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs)
    In October 2025, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) reaffirmed Iran's position on its blacklist of high-risk jurisdictions for failing to meet global Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Terrorism Financing (CTF) standards.
    This decision reinforced Iran's economic and financial isolation.
    The EU's simultaneous re-imposition of sanctions - triggered by the JCPOA snapback mechanism - further sealed Iran's exclusion from the global financial system.
    These measures froze Iranian bank assets, restricted investments, and banned trade in key sectors like oil and gas, effectively rendering Iran untouchable to international financial institutions.

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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
  • Trump's Push for Gulf States to Pay for Rebuilding Gaza Faces Hurdles - Sam Dagher
    Persuading Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to hand over funds for Gaza's reconstruction is unlikely to be easy. All three have specific reservations about unconditionally providing financing.
        Saudi Arabia is constrained in terms of what it can commit financially to Gaza, due to lower oil prices which have fallen more than 10% this year. Plus, Saudi Arabia has ended a long tradition of grant-giving. Riyadh "is allergic to writing blank checks given decades of corruption and misuse by recipients across the Arab and Muslim world," said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi author and commentator close to the royal court.
        The UAE is hesitant to allocate significant funds to Gaza before it sees "political clarity on where this is going," as well as operational and security arrangements on the ground, Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said last week. Abu Dhabi wants to first see the full disarmament of Hamas and its exclusion from any future governance role in Gaza, as well as a complete overhaul of the Palestinian Authority.
        Qatar, which has hosted Hamas officials in Doha for more than a decade, is focused on making sure Israel will implement its part of the peace deal before it puts any money into rebuilding the territory. Gulf states "all agree they won't put money into Gaza unless they are first sure this won't happen again,' said Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula project director at the International Crisis Group. This "entails getting guarantees" from Hamas that it will not attack Israel, she said. (Bloomberg)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
  • Countries Unwilling to Join International Stabilization Force to Disarm Hamas - Danny Zaken
    A senior Israeli official told Israel Hayom: "Israel is now dealing with a bloc that includes Turkey, Qatar and Egypt - countries interested in preserving Hamas's role in Gaza to varying degrees and refusing to pressure it to disarm." In recent days, countries that were expected to deploy forces to help stabilize Gaza have made it clear they will not do so as long as Hamas retains its weapons. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE oppose sending troops to Gaza while Hamas continues to wield military power.
        Arab diplomatic sources say Egypt is also unwilling to deploy troops at this stage. Egypt, like others, understands that clashes between its troops and armed Hamas operatives are only a matter of time, especially if there is any serious effort to disarm the terrorist group. This position is shared by other potential contributors to the stabilization force, including Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Jordan and Morocco.
        The practical result is that no international force is currently willing to take responsibility for Gaza or carry out its primary mission of disarming Hamas in line with the Trump plan. (Israel Hayom)
        See also Israeli Security Officials Say Hamas Will Not Disarm despite Gaza Agreement - Amir Ettinger
    Israeli security officials told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee last week that "the working assumption is that Hamas will not give up its weapons."  (Ynet News)
  • UNIFIL Shoots Down IDF Surveillance Drone over Southern Lebanon - Emanuel Fabian
    An Israeli military drone was shot down by the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) during a routine surveillance mission on Sunday. The IDF said Monday that the drone had posed no threat to the UNIFIL observers who opened fire on it. Israel has long argued that the observer force has failed in its mission, doing little to block Hizbullah from building up its forces near the Israeli border over decades. In August, the UN Security Council voted to end UNIFIL's mission in 2027. (Times of Israel)
        See also France Responsible for UNIFIL Decision to Shoot Down Israeli Drone in Southern Lebanon (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:

    The Gaza War

  • Phase II of the Gaza Agreement: The American Vision and Israel's Security Considerations - Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit
    The series of visits by senior U.S. administration officials to Israel, alongside the deployment of American forces at the forward headquarters in Kiryat Gat overseeing the Gaza ceasefire agreement, reflect President Trump's strong commitment to ensuring the agreement's success.
        Despite broad understandings between Jerusalem and Washington, the American determination to accelerate implementation may generate significant gaps between the sides. The U.S. favors an international mechanism under its supervision to ensure a phased disarmament process alongside a gradual Israeli withdrawal. Israel insists on complete dismantling of terrorist infrastructure as a precondition for any change in troop deployment and rejects parallel or reciprocal frameworks.
        Washington, backed by Arab states, tends to soften the condition that the interim governing body be fully detached from the Palestinian Authority, while Israel opposes the inclusion of figures affiliated with it or with Hamas and demands binding security guarantees before reducing the IDF's presence. Moreover, Israel conditions any reconstruction step on the completion of disarmament and strict security oversight, rejecting the transfer of funds before "the military threat is completely removed."
        The second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement places U.S.-Israel relations in a delicate test between an American political vision and Israel's imperative to maintain security control. While Trump views the agreement as a lever for building a new regional order, Israel's priority remains safeguarding its security and operational independence.
        The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, previously served in senior roles in Israeli Defense Intelligence and the Mossad.  (Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University)
  • No One Knows How to Pull Off the Gaza Peace Deal - Graeme Wood
    The Oct. 13 peace summit in Sharm al-Sheikh - where Donald Trump assembled more than 30 world leaders - achieved, for about two hours, general agreement on a 20-point plan for Gaza. It immediately freed the remaining 20 living Israeli hostages, in exchange for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, plus assurances of an Israeli military withdrawal.
        Yet the remaining steps of the plan - disarming Hamas, fielding an international security force - will be a challenge since no one knows how to do them. "It's not going to happen," a former Israeli intelligence official told me. Disarming Hamas is a task that only the Israeli military can handle, he said.
        The plan's 13th point calls for the permanent destruction of the 500 miles of tunnels built by Hamas under Gaza. Israel has destroyed 200 miles of tunnels. Who will destroy the rest? And how, if Hamas shoots at the engineers who are destroying them?
        The countries currently being considered for the International Stabilization Force have no relevant experience. And many of them - Indonesia, Pakistan - don't know a word of Arabic. What will happen the first time an Indonesian or Pakistani military contingent gets hit by a rocket, or sees Hamas preparing for an attack and fails to prevent it? (Atlantic)
  • A "Two Gaza Solution" - Jonathan Sacerdoti
    The war in Gaza has not ended; it has changed shape. The American vision that has emerged is vast in ambition and uncertain in outcome. President Trump's envoys have constructed a regional framework that joins the recovery of Gaza to a broader project linking Arab capital, American protection, and Israeli restraint. For the moment, it works. Hostages have been released, the guns are quieter, and the promise of a new Gaza is being drawn on every conference table.
        Yet on the ground, two Gazas now exist. To the west, the remnant of Hamas authority. To the east, the zone under Israeli control. Eastern Gaza will be demilitarized and reconstructed under international sponsorship. Western Gaza is left to Hamas's residual power and the patronage of its regional allies.
        Dr. Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, insists that Hamas, as an Islamic jihadist movement, "will not lay down its arms voluntarily because that would be tantamount to erasing its identity" and argues that the only realistic agent of disarmament in the short term is the IDF. What remains now for Israel is to secure the gains, shape the reconstruction, and prevent the return of illusions. (Spectator-UK)
  • A "Technocratic Government" for Gaza: The Mother of All Deceptions - Khaled Abu Toameh
    Are Egypt and Qatar working to ensure Hamas's continued rule over Gaza by allowing the terror group to choose members of a new technocratic government? Hamas submitted a list of more than 40 "independent national figures" as potential candidates to form a technocratic body to administer Gaza, including figures sympathetic to the terror group, while the Palestinian Authority chose the rest. "Hamas inserted about half of the technocratic government's composition, choosing individuals who support Hamas and its principles," according to Israel's Channel 11.
        That Hamas and other terror groups are involved in the discussions over the formation of the new government in Gaza is problematic. The terrorists who launched the war should not be allowed to have a say in Gaza's future governance.
        The talk about "independent" Palestinian figures being part of the technocratic government is laughable. If you are chosen by a terrorist group to serve in the government, that means it views you as someone it can trust to prioritize its interests.
        Moreover, negotiating with Hamas and other terror groups over the future governance of Gaza grants them legitimacy. At the same time, Hamas leaders have repeatedly emphasized that their group has no intention to disarm.
        The writer, a veteran Israeli journalist, is a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.  (Gatestone Institute)
  • Will Hamas Blow Up Trump's Gaza Peace Plan? - Jonathan S. Tobin
    President Trump and his foreign-policy team deserve enormous credit for brokering a ceasefire that achieved the release of the final 20 living hostages held by Hamas. Yet much of what the administration is saying about implementing and maintaining the ceasefire is rooted in mistaken notions about the nature of the conflict and fantasies about things that are highly unlikely ever to occur.
        Even Trump seems to have swallowed the Kool-Aid about Qatar's being a good friend of the U.S. and a tireless worker for peace. That's in spite of the fact that the Gulf emirate is largely responsible for enabling Hamas to start the war and also spreading Islamist propaganda via its Al Jazeera media outlet and by sponsoring and funding the Muslim Brotherhood.
        Even more disturbing is the way the U.S. team speaks of Hamas's disarmament being accomplished via an international security force made up of contingents from various Muslim and Arab countries. Such a force being able or willing to take on Hamas is a fantasy. Arab governments may dislike Hamas and wish to be rid of it, but the chances that any of them would actually take on that job themselves are zero. The same is true of any belief that a renewed flow of billions in foreign aid into Gaza will not be misused.
        Too many of those who work for the president seem invested in fantasies about Hamas, the Palestinians, Qatar and Turkey, rooted in naive beliefs about genocidal Islamists having the same hopes and dreams as Americans, Israelis and the people of the West. They don't. And, sooner or later, that dismal fact is going to blow up the peace plan.
        When this happens, we need to hope that Trump and his foreign-policy team are able to divest themselves of the same foolish arrogance that characterized the beliefs of their predecessors about the Palestinians wanting peace and being willing to give up their century-old war on the Jews. Even an indomitable force like Donald Trump can't wish away the Palestinian desire to destroy Israel. (JNS)
  • Why Aren't Human Rights Groups Denouncing Hamas Atrocities Against Gazans? - Dr. Yariv Mohar
    Following the ceasefire in Gaza, numerous corroborated testimonies - some supported by filmed evidence - have emerged of Hamas's executions of political opponents, particularly brutal torture of civilians in broad daylight and killings or beatings of civilians who merely expressed gratitude toward the U.S. or criticized Hamas.
        Given these facts, I was astonished to look at the X accounts of two of the world's largest human rights organizations, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, and find that there has been not a single reference to these atrocities. Every day more atrocities occur, and silence confers a degree of legitimacy upon them.
        Initial statements about atrocities have in the past been issued far more rapidly by human rights organizations. Yet two weeks after the ceasefire there was still no comment, not even a demand that Hamas comply with international humanitarian law.
        As human rights activists, our message should be clear: We will not ignore any atrocity; we will not abandon Gazans now that Hamas is attacking them; we will not hesitate in voicing strong condemnation. I call on the human rights community to urgently denounce Hamas's atrocities against Gazans.
        The writer, Director of the Pro-Human Campaign, previously served as Deputy Director of Amnesty International's Israel Section.  (Ha'aretz)

    • Iran and the Axis of Resistance

  • The State of the Axis of Resistance - Nicholas Carl and Brian Carter
    Iran has suffered repeated defeats across the Middle East since the beginning of 2024. Tehran has thus become more vulnerable and lost much of its regional influence and ability to project force, bringing it to its weakest in decades. These defeats have reduced the threat to U.S. interests, personnel, and partners in the Middle East.
        There is no guarantee, however, that these victories will last. Iran and its Axis of Resistance remain hostile to the U.S. and its partners. They will spend the coming years rebuilding their strength and collaborating with major U.S. adversaries, such as China, North Korea, and Russia, to erode U.S. global influence and undermine the U.S.-led international order.
        The U.S. should therefore capitalize on the moment of relative weakness affecting Iran and its Axis of Resistance to make lasting gains and prevent them from rebuilding. That means using the positive momentum to further constrain Iranian and Iranian-backed forces across the Middle East. Pressing this advantage could reduce the medium- and long-term threats to U.S. interests, personnel, and partners and help stabilize the region.
        To contain the Iranian threat and promote Middle Eastern stability, the U.S. must remain prepared to use force - as it has already to tremendous effect - to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.
        The U.S. should seek to render the Houthis unwilling to attack international shipping and U.S. partners. The U.S. cannot tolerate a future wherein transit through the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman is under the constant threat of Houthi attack.
        The U.S. should be prepared to support local partners in conducting offensive ground operations against the Houthis. A committed U.S. effort to back partners in challenging Houthi political control is the most straightforward - and perhaps only - path to render the Houthis unwilling to conduct attacks outside Yemen.
        Nicholas Carl is assistant director of the Critical Threats Project at AEI, where Brian Carter is research manager of the project.  (American Enterprise Institute)


    • Antisemitism

  • Why I Stand with Israel amid Rising Antisemitism - James Maslow
    Antisemitism in America, and in Hollywood and the music industry, is taking an ugly form: a boycott culture aimed squarely at Israel and the Jewish people. Too many artists are cutting ties, canceling collaborations, and demonizing an entire nation. It's sucking the oxygen out of art.
        That's why I decided to do the opposite. In the middle of the war I poured my energy into a project that means more to me than anything I've done in years. My new single, "On My Mind," is about Israel and the Jewish people. And I didn't just write about it - I filmed the music video there and collaborated with two extraordinary Israeli artists.
        For me, this wasn't just about making music. It was about standing up. When so many voices in entertainment are quick to pile on Israel, I chose to align myself with the only democracy in the Middle East, a place I love, and a people I admire. As an artist, I can't stand by while the cultural world abandons Israel and the Jewish people. Silence is complicity.
        I want my fans to understand this isn't about politics. It's about humanity. It's about standing with a people who, after the Holocaust, built a homeland from sand and stone, who turned a desert into innovation, who contribute more to art, science and medicine than countries 10 times their size. It's about seeing through the lies and realizing Israel is not the villain, but a nation fighting for its survival in a hostile neighborhood.
        The writer is an American actor, singer, and producer.  (Fox News)
Observations:

The Iranian Islamist Bloc Has Been Weakened, but the Sunni Islamist Alliance Has Grown Stronger - Jonathan Spyer (Wall Street Journal)
  • After two years of war, it becomes clear that the battles haven't led to a fundamental strategic transformation of the region. The balance of power between existing power blocs has been somewhat altered, but no one has faced total defeat, with the notable exception of the Assad regime in Syria.
  • The war of the past two years consisted of a clash between the Iran-led regional alliance and Israel, with crucial support from the U.S. The result is that Iran and its allies have been bloodied but not destroyed.
  • Iran itself was pounded by Israeli and American ordnance, which it proved unable to divert. Its nuclear program has been damaged and its centers of governance attacked. Its efforts to strike at Israel proved generally ineffectual.
  • Lebanese Hizbullah's historic leadership is decimated, its missile array largely destroyed, and many of its midlevel commanders killed. The Yemeni Houthis have been severely mauled by Israeli air power, with little to show for their many attempts to attack the Jewish state. The Iraqi Shiite militias, after some drone and rocket attacks on U.S. forces, scaled back. Hamas and Islamic Jihad suffered enormous losses and ceded most of Gaza. In all these cases, recovery and rebuilding are underway.
  • The Sunni Islamist alliance, whose main components are Turkey and Qatar, appears to have played a crucial role in cajoling Hamas to accept the Trump plan and the Gaza ceasefire. It did so not to secure a lasting peace, but to ensure Hamas's survival. The Sunni Islamists of Gaza are a natural and comfortable ally of this bloc, whose outlook they share in all essentials.
  • In the Middle East, one Islamist bloc, that of the Iranians, has been considerably weakened. Another, that of Turkey and Qatar, has grown stronger. The contest is set to continue.

    The writer is director of research at the Middle East Forum and editor of Middle East Quarterly.
Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs
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