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In-Depth Issues:
Iran Seizes Fuel Tanker in Strait of Hormuz - Pranav Baskar ( New York Times)
Iran confirmed on Saturday that it had seized the fuel tanker Talara that was headed from the UAE to Singapore through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy said it had boarded the ship as part of an operation to "protect the national interests and resources of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
The Continuing Threats to Israel from Syria - Eitan Rubinstein ( Jerusalem Strategic Tribune)
As part of my army reserve service, I belong to a unit that is holding a sector opposite Syria, defending Israel on the northern border.
Syria continues to host terrorist organizations hostile to Israel and intent on harming it.
The fall of Assad's regime did not bring peace. Instead, it created a strategic vacuum that was quickly filled by radical Sunni militias.
When Syrian opposition forces took control of Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024, in response, the IDF moved into the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria established by the 1974 ceasefire agreement and set up several forward posts.
Today, the IDF holds these positions as strategic depth to defend the nearby towns and villages of the Golan Heights from various hostile actors.
Iranian-backed Shi'ite forces are still operating in southwest Syria and are trying to rebuild their capabilities.
An operational arm of Lebanese Hizbullah is attempting to rebuild its capabilities on the Syrian front, with funding from Iran.
ISIS is also facing us in southern Syria, in addition to many small terrorist groups seeking to harm Israel, including organizations affiliated with Hamas abroad.
The flat terrain in the center of the Golan Heights could allow vehicles from Syria quick access to Israeli civilian communities in a very short time.
In the southern Golan, a landscape of deep wadis can enable covert infiltration by terror cells.
The constant presence of the IDF in this challenging terrain allows it to preempt the build-up of hostile forces - a task that would have been impossible had the IDF remained behind the buffer zone fence.
The Israeli presence in the buffer zone is essential to prevent a repeat of an Oct. 7-type surprise attack in the Golan.
The writer is an IDF reserve paratrooper officer who has fought in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
There Is a Growing Anti-Hizbullah Movement within Lebanon's Shi'ites - Ron Ben-Yishai ( Ynet News)
Current assessments in both Israel and the U.S. regarding the situation in Lebanon are far more optimistic than what recent media reports suggest.
There is a growing anti-Hizbullah movement within the Shi'ite sector.
Newly released videos show well-known and respected figures sharply condemning Hizbullah's aggressive stance and calling on their fellow Shi'ites, now a majority in Lebanon, to pressure Hizbullah to change course and support a new political framework that would include disarmament.
The Lebanese public - particularly the Shi'ite community - is war-weary and deeply wounded.
While Hizbullah continues to receive substantial Iranian funding, the group must pay monthly stipends to the families of its "martyrs," and the war added thousands of new casualties to that list.
Hizbullah is now also paying rent for Shi'ite families displaced from southern Lebanon.
International donors who could help rebuild Lebanon - Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE - are waiting for a green light from President Trump, whose approval, sources say, is contingent on Hizbullah's disarmament.
How Illegal Crypto Mining Cripples Iran's Electricity and Economy - Ella Rosenberg ( Ynet News)
Unregulated crypto mining is a colossal drain on Iran's already fragile national power grid.
Illegal miners take advantage of the country's heavily subsidized electricity prices, which are among the cheapest in the world.
The illegal farms tap into the grid using residential, agricultural or industrial connections, paying a fraction of the actual cost or, in some cases, bypassing meters entirely.
Iranian power officials estimate that unauthorized crypto mining operations consume the equivalent to the electricity demand of an entire major city like Tehran.
State-run utility Tavanir has attributed 15-20% of the country's electricity deficit to these operations.
The result is predictable rolling blackouts across major cities and provinces.
The subsidized energy intended for homes and vital industries is being secretly siphoned off to generate a private, digital asset, forcing the public to bear the cost in darkness.
The authorities offer large cash rewards to citizens who report illegal operations, a desperate measure that highlights the severity of the crisis.
The illegal crypto mining phenomenon in Iran is an organized, large-scale black market.
The writer is a senior research fellow at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Netanyahu: Israel Moving toward Greater Self-Reliance - Corey Walker
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied reports that his country is seeking a new 20-year military aid deal with the U.S. "I don't know what they're talking about. My direction is the exact opposite," Netanyahu told Australian journalist Erin Molan on Thursday.
"I want to make our arms industry independent, totally as independent as possible....We have a very strong...arms industry, and even though we get what we get, which we appreciate, 80% of that is spent in the U.S. and produces jobs in the U.S."
"Israel does not ask others to fight for us. Israel is the one American ally in the world that says, 'We don't need boots on the ground, we don't need American servicemen fighting on the ground for Israel or around Israel. We're fine.'"
"We fight our own battles, but in doing so, we serve important American interests, like preventing countries that chant 'Death to America' from having nuclear bombs to throw at America." (Algemeiner)
- Israel Balks at Erdogan's Gaza Troop Hopes - Efrat Lachter
Turkey is reportedly preparing a brigade of 2,000 soldiers to join a U.S.-backed stabilization force in Gaza.
Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said President Trump must recognize the depth of the ideological divide between Israel and Turkish President Erdogan's government.
"Trump is an economic warrior and a dealmaker. He wants to put everyone in his Middle East regional deal by embracing enemies and allies alike," Diker said. "But he doesn't take into account the profoundly deep-rooted enmity that Erdogan's government embodies. Turkey is not a friend of the United States and the Western alliance, even though it's a NATO member. It is currently on a mission to assert itself as an Islamic imperial power in the Middle East."
"You want to talk about an occupier? They're the major occupiers of Syria right now, and they see themselves as the determining Islamic power in Gaza. This is a very dangerous moment, and the president would be well advised to back Israel without conditions." Erdogan is "publicly supporting and financing an international Islamic terror organization." Trump "cannot allow himself to compromise the principles of America first, which is Israel first and the West first."
Former Israeli National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror said, "I think Israel must stand firmly on its feet to prevent Turkish forces from entering. Turkey is a power with a desire to expand its borders and its influence into areas that are relevant to us, and therefore we must not accept a Turkish army in Gaza.
He added that Israel must retain operational freedom inside Gaza even after the war. "Israel must not give up Israeli freedom of action, like in Lebanon. The moment Hamas rebuilds itself, we will act as we do in Lebanon." (Fox News)
- Report: U.S. Military Planning for a Divided Gaza - Emma Graham-Harrison
The U.S. is planning for the long-term division of Gaza, with a "green zone" under Israeli and international military control, where reconstruction would start. Foreign forces will initially deploy alongside Israeli soldiers in the east of Gaza, according to unclassified U.S. military planning documents seen by the Guardian and sources briefed on American plans. They would not operate on the western side of the "yellow line," where Hamas is reasserting control.
President Trump has ruled out putting any U.S. soldiers on the ground or funding reconstruction. "The U.S. has been very clear they want to set the vision and not pay for it," said one diplomatic source. (Guardian-UK)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Defense Minister Outlines Israeli Policy on Palestinian State, Mt. Hermon, and Gaza - Yonah Jeremy Bob
Defense Minister Israel Katz said Sunday, "A Palestinian state will not be established. The IDF will remain on top of [the Syrian side of] Mount Hermon and in the security zone." Gaza "will be cleared all the way until the last tunnel and Hamas will be disarmed on the yellow side [of Gaza] by the IDF, and on the other side of Gaza by international forces, or by the IDF." (Jerusalem Post)
- Deceased Hostage Meny Godard Returned by Hamas - Emanuel Fabian
Meny Godard, 73, was murdered by Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists in Kibbutz Be'eri on Oct. 7, 2023, alongside his wife Ayelet, 63, and his body was abducted to Gaza by the group. His body was returned to Israel by Hamas on Thursday night and was identified by forensic experts. The bodies of three slain hostages still remain held in Gaza: two Israelis and one Thai national.
(Times of Israel)
- Israel Uneasy as U.S. Adds Palestinian Statehood Path to Gaza Plan at UN - Itamar Eichner
The U.S. has spent weeks working to secure approval for a UN Security Council resolution that would establish an international stabilization force in Gaza. A draft has surfaced that includes what Washington calls a reliable path to Palestinian self-determination and a future state, after the proposal was shaped with Arab countries.
Israeli officials say the new draft includes language on a path to Palestinian statehood and a clause that denies Israel the ability to veto which countries may send troops to the stabilization force.
(Ynet News)
- Hamas Terror Infrastructure in Bethlehem Uncovered, 40 Arrested - Elisha Ben Kimon
The Israel Security Agency, in coordination with the IDF, announced Thursday they had successfully dismantled a major Hamas terrorist infrastructure operating in the Bethlehem area, thwarting plans for imminent shooting attacks against Israeli civilians and security forces. Some 40 Hamas operatives were arrested in 15 operations carried out by IDF reservists. Weapons including M16 rifles were seized.
(Ynet News)
See also IDF: "We Must Neutralize Threats Before They Reach Our Doorstep" - Seth J. Frantzman
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said, "One of our lessons from Oct. 7 is...the change in our conception of security; we neutralize threats as they emerge....We must act and neutralize threats before they reach our doorstep, that is our duty...and prevent the next threat from arising." (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
The Gaza War
- Security Expert: Hamas Terrorists Intentionally Stayed in IDF Zone - Giorgia Valente
Israeli officials estimate that 100-200 Hamas terrorists are holed up in a tunnel network on the Israeli-controlled side of the "Yellow Line" in southern Gaza. For Israel, their fate has become a political red line.
Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, sees Hamas as trying to reopen the ceasefire deal. "Hamas is trying to insert a new deal into an existing deal, and this is something Israel must reject, and I think the Americans understand that."
"How is it that these 200 terrorists remained in an area under IDF control? Hamas knew the IDF was going to redeploy along the Yellow Line, and it knew exactly that the tunnel we are talking about is in a zone controlled by the IDF. So why weren't these terrorists evacuated in advance? That suggests that Hamas intended to use these terrorists to attack the IDF from within an area under Israeli control."
(Media Line-Jerusalem Post)
- The U.S. Sets the Tone in Gaza - Dr. Michael Milshtein
The dominant actor in postwar Gaza is no longer Israel but the Americans. Washington's forward base in Kiryat Gat signals unprecedented involvement in the conflict. Every step the U.S. advances is designed to cement a new reality on the ground that will restrict Israel's freedom of action and make a return to full-scale war very difficult.
A U.S.-sponsored resolution at the UN Security Council on the deployment of foreign forces in Gaza includes the Palestinian Authority and mentions a potential Palestinian state. U.S. eagerness to preserve the ceasefire may push Washington to accept compromises - even at Israel's expense.
Israel has two choices: confront Trump and set red lines (a path that risks a heavy price) or accept the changing reality and attempt to preserve maximum operational freedom, and retain a veto over decisions that sharply conflict with Israeli interests.
The end of intense warfare in Gaza allows Israel a clearer strategic view of other arenas of conflict. Despite impressive gains in Lebanon and Iran-linked fronts, the job is unfinished. Fixating on Gaza and returning to large-scale war there erodes Israel's ability to deal with other key fronts - and, crucially, threatens international legitimacy, especially American.
The writer heads the Forum for Palestinian Studies, Dayan Center, Tel Aviv University.
(Ynet News)
U.S.-Israel Relations
- Israel Fears Trump May Press for IDF Pullback from Mt. Hermon in Syria - Yoav Zitun
Low-key contacts in recent months between Israel and the al-Sharaa administration in Syria have not yet produced a new ceasefire agreement to replace the one with the Assad regime from 1974 until its fall last year.
Israeli security officials are urging Prime Minister Netanyahu not to give up the Syrian summit of Mount Hermon, which they view as a strategic anchor for northern security. From that vantage point one can identify every vehicle that enters key Israeli positions in the Golan region. The Syrian side of Mt. Hermon provides effective oversight of the weapons-smuggling routes from Syria to Lebanon.
The IDF currently maintains eight outposts inside the Syrian Golan. Israel is inclined to discuss a withdrawal from these outposts in exchange for a renewed ceasefire that would ensure Israel's freedom to strike emerging terror threats in the area. Hizbullah and Iran spent the past decade trying to establish a new front there.
Israeli officials warn that while Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa "appears pragmatic right now, he is surrounded by people with a deeply hostile ideology toward Israel."
(Ynet News)
- Israel: Turkey Shouldn't Get U.S. F-35s - Amichai Stein
Israel's ambassador to the U.S. Yechiel Leiter said in an interview, "Look at the big picture. The United States incorporated our basic demands into [President Trump's] 20-point plan." Those demands are unambiguous: "to decommission Hamas and to demilitarize and deradicalize Gaza."
On Iran and its network of proxies, Leiter signals confidence in the alignment between Jerusalem and Washington. "We are on the same track, absolutely." If certain terrorist groups "start rebuilding," the president "is going to act militarily again." The message Leiter conveys is that deterrence is real, it is being felt, and it will be enforced.
Regarding Turkey, he says, "We understand the strategic importance of Turkey to the United States. It's a NATO member, a large army, a key geography. And we don't challenge that." But "we can't have Turkish troops in Gaza or Syria. And those practical demands haven't been challenged by the United States; they've been accepted."
"We would prefer that Turkey not receive F-35s from the U.S. We don't think it's constructive at this time." Yet, "we don't live in fear...that Israel's qualitative edge will be compromised." (Jerusalem Post)
- Israel's Alliance with U.S. Protects Both Nations - Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon
Israel is America's chief anchor of stability in a volatile region. The U.S.-Israel alliance delivers tangible, measurable benefits to American security. Israeli intelligence has repeatedly provided early warnings that have saved American lives.
Former Hizbullah commander Ibrahim Aqil had a $7 million bounty on his head by the U.S. government for playing a key role in the bombings of the U.S. embassy in Beirut in April 1983, which killed 63 people, as well as the attack on the U.S. Marine barracks in October 1983, which killed 241 Americans. In 2024, Israeli forces eliminated Aqil. This is what partnership looks like.
Standing with Israel is not selfless charity; it is strategy. It is the recognition that the enemies of the Jewish state are also enemies of the United States. (Jerusalem Post)
Observations:
- As the Trump administration tries to finalize a deal to sell 48 advanced F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report has raised concerns that China could acquire the plane's technology through Chinese espionage or China's security partnership with Saudi Arabia.
- In addition, the proposed sale also raises questions about whether the U.S. government would be compromising Israel's regional military advantage. Since the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, U.S. policymakers have sought to ensure that Israel maintains its "qualitative military edge" in the region.
- Saudi Arabia has requested to buy 48 stealth F-35 fifth generation jets. The Saudis have been watching Israel's use of F-35s in Syria, Yemen and Iran. However, a classified report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency has raised a red flag on the deal, fearing that key technology in the F-35 and operational information will leak to China.
- The proposed sale has caused concern in Israel. Israel is the only F-35 operator in the Middle East, with a current fleet of 45 F-35I jets and plans to increase that number. In Israel's view, Saudi acquisition of the jets threatens to change the regional balance of power. Israel is also concerned that the U.S. might agree to sell the same jets to Turkey, which is openly hostile to Israel.
- There has been security cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia, some of it brokered through U.S. CENTCOM. The Saudis have used their radars and air defenses to help Israel confront a heavy Iranian missile and drone attack. The Saudis have probably cooperated with Israel against Yemen's Houthis, which the Saudis see as a threat to the Saudi-friendly government of Yemen and to Saudi Arabia.
The writer is a former U.S. Deputy Undersecretary of Defense.
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