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In-Depth Issues:
U.S. and Israel Focused on Final Stage of Iran War - Danny Zaken ( Israel Hayom)
A senior U.S. source told Israel Hayom: "It is getting close. The stage at which we will be able to choose how to end the war, either through an agreement on our terms with whoever remains from the current regime, or through the complete removal of all its representatives, with others taking their place."
The source estimated that this was a matter of only a few weeks.
The U.S. and Israel are focused on two main goals expected to bring about the final stage: continuing to eliminate leaders and commanders, and the sustained degradation of Iran's launch capabilities. Alongside that, attacks on Basij personnel are continuing.
Israeli and U.S. sources say the flow of information coming from inside Iran is steadily increasing, including information used in the elimination of senior Iranian officials.
Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a U.S. plan of action is supposed to reopen the maritime passage within days.
In Lebanon, calls on the government to implement its decisions against Hizbullah are coming from leaders of all communities: Christians, Sunni Muslims, the Shiite Amal movement and the Druze.
The Strait of Hormuz Is Iran's Last Weapon - Zvika Klein ( Jerusalem Post)
Iran lost the first round badly. Its nuclear sites are rubble. Its air defenses are gone. The Revolutionary Guards have taken casualties they won't acknowledge for months.
By any military measure, Tehran is beaten. But it isn't finished.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced last week that the Strait of Hormuz is "closed to our enemies" - staking a territorial claim over a waterway that belongs to no one country and carries a fifth of the world's oil every day. American gasoline prices are up about 25%.
Iran is not trying to win militarily. It's trying to win politically by making the cost prohibitive.
The Strait of Hormuz isn't Iranian territorial water. It's an international waterway governed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, a treaty Iran has signed.
No country gets to privatize a global chokepoint. No serious power should accept that arrangement.
The U.S.-Israeli Strategy Against Iran Is Working - Muhanad Seloom ( Al Jazeera-Qatar)
When you look at what has actually happened to Iran's principal instruments of power - its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air defenses, its navy and its proxy command architecture - the picture is not one of U.S. failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation.
I see an adversary whose capacity to project power is collapsing in real time.
Iran now faces a strategic dilemma. If it fires its remaining missiles, it exposes launchers that are promptly destroyed. This is a force managing decline, not projecting strength.
Much of the criticism of the U.S.-Israeli campaign focuses on its costs while treating the status quo ante as if it were cost-free. It was not. Tehran was less than two weeks away from enriching enough uranium for one nuclear bomb, according to U.S. intelligence assessments.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz was always Iran's most visible retaliatory card. About 90% of Iran's own oil exports pass through Kharg Island and then the strait.
China, Tehran's largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait is shut. Every day the blockade continues, Iran severs its own economic lifeline and alienates the one major power that has consistently shielded it.
The regional environment that sustained Iran's proxy architecture, including the grudging tolerance by Gulf states fearful of Iranian retaliation, is being replaced by active hostility. Qatar and Bahrain are arresting IRGC operatives.
The Iranian threat, if left unchecked, would have produced a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.
The writer is Assistant Professor of International Politics and Security at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies in Qatar.
The Lie that Israel Is Dragging America into a Futile War - Amb. Michael Oren ( Times of Israel)
Israel and the Jews have been accused of dragging the U.S. into another endless and unwinnable war in the Middle East.
Ironically, these accusations are emerging at a moment of unprecedented U.S.-Israel strategic coordination. Far from manipulation, the partnership reflects shared threat assessments developed over multiple administrations.
With none of America's other allies willing to join the effort or even defend themselves against Iranian threats, and with NATO revealed as a toothless tiger, Israel is today America's only dependable military ally.
Trump and Netanyahu conceived and coordinated the Iran operation as partners addressing a common intolerable threat.
Six American presidents viewed Iran as a national threat. The one who finally decided to act did not have to be dragged.
The writer was Israel's ambassador to the U.S., 2009-13.
Why We Haven't Heard from the Houthis - Asher Orkaby ( Wall Street Journal)
The Houthis have stayed out of the Iranian conflict, but not because their leaders have become peaceniks. Nor have they abandoned their militant rhetorical support for Iran.
The Houthi movement, representing the northern tribal confederations of Yemen, is responding to the exercise of military power, a language appreciated throughout the Middle East.
As long as Iran armed and financially supported the Houthi movement, the alliance with Tehran remained appealing. Throughout the 12-day war last June, the Houthis launched dozens of missiles and drones at Israel.
The recent killing of Khamenei and a large portion of the IRGC leadership, followed by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, have Houthi leaders questioning Iranian regional hegemony.
They doubt Iran will be able to keep supporting its network of regional proxies.
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts -
Dov Lieber
Ali Larijani, Iran's top security official, strolled confidently Friday through a rally of regime loyalists in central Tehran.
Early Tuesday, Israel's intelligence services found Larijani with other officials at a hideout on the outskirts of Tehran and killed him with a missile strike.
The same night, Israel got a tip from ordinary Iranians that the leader of the Basij militia, Gholamreza Soleimani, was holed up with his deputies in a tent in a wooded area in Tehran. He, too, was struck and killed. The killings were made possible by a growing harvest of intelligence about possible targets.
With thousands of regime members killed, Iranians are reporting that a sense of disorder is starting to take hold. Security forces are under stress and on the run. Israel is chasing security forces from their headquarters to muster points, then on to hide-outs under bridges. The advanced technology deployed by Israel and the penetration of Iranian society by its agents are creating the greatest threat yet to the regime.
Israeli intelligence learned that Iran had a fallback plan for its internal security forces in the event their facilities were destroyed - mustering at local sports complexes. Israel watched the sites fill up and then hit them, killing hundreds of members of the security services and military, the vast majority at Azadi Stadium, a large venue for soccer games.
Israeli intelligence officials began placing calls to individual commanders, threatening them and their families by name if they didn't stand aside in the event of an uprising. In one call between a senior Iranian police commander and an agent of the Mossad, Israel's foreign-intelligence service, the agent said in Farsi, "I called to warn you in advance that you should stand with your people's side, and if you will not do that, your destiny will be as your leader." The commander responded, "Brother, I swear on the Quran, I'm not your enemy. I'm a dead man already. Just please come help us."
Israel's air force began operating fleets of loitering drones above Tehran and other areas. Their attacks were in many cases guided by tips sent by ordinary Iranians, Israeli security officials said. On Sunday night, Israeli forces conducted a targeted hunt for Basij checkpoints, hitting 11. Residents said many security officers are hiding in residential buildings. When they move in, the neighbors evacuate, fearing a strike.
Israel's security establishment believes Iran's crumbling economy and popular anger have put the regime on an irreversible path to collapse, whether it happens during the war or down the road. (Wall Street Journal)
- U.S. Strikes Iranian Missile Sites in Strait of Hormuz Using 5,000-Pound Bombs
On Tuesday, U.S. forces employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites along Iran's coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping in the strait.
(X-CENTCOM)
- Trump Dismisses Allegations that Iran Was Not a Threat - Ashleigh Fields
Joe Kent resigned as director of the National Counterterrorism Center after alleging that Israel influenced the U.S. decision to strike Iran and deceived President Trump "into believing that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States." He called it "the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war."
President Trump said Tuesday: "I read his statement. I always thought he was a nice guy, but I always thought he was weak on security, very weak on security....It's a good thing he's out, because he said that Iran was not a threat. Iran was a threat. Every country realized what a threat Iran was. The question is whether or not they wanted to do something about it." (The Hill)
See also House Speaker Johnson Rebuts Joe Kent on Iran: "There Was Clearly an Imminent Threat" - Emily Brooks
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Tuesday rebutted former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent's assertion that Iran posed no imminent threat to the U.S. before President Trump ordered strikes on the country. "I'm on the Gang of Eight [briefed on classified intelligence matters]. I got all the briefings. We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat."
Johnson said the idea that the U.S. is putting foreign interests above domestic interests is "clearly wrong. Iran was building up ballistic missiles at such a rapid pace that we knew that their plan was to fire them upon Americans. The commander-in-chief and his administration had a very difficult decision to make. Had the president waited, I am personally convinced that we would have mass casualties of Americans, service members and others, and our installations would have been dramatically damaged." (The Hill)
See also Joe Kent's Wife Was Killed by an ISIS Suicide Bomber in Syria - Ben-Dror Yemini
In his resignation letter, Joe Kent claimed he was "a Gold Star husband who lost my beloved wife Shannon in a war manufactured by Israel." In Trump's letter of appointment, he had written, "Joe knows the terrible cost of terrorism, losing his wonderful wife, Shannon, a great American hero, who was killed in the fight against ISIS." Excuse me? Was she killed because of Israel?
At the time, Kent himself wrote an article: "Trump came to Dover after my wife was killed fighting ISIS." There was not a single word about Israel. The reason is simple. Shannon was killed when an ISIS suicide bomber entered a restaurant in northern Syria where a group of Americans was sitting.
(Ynet News)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Iranian Missile Kills Israeli Couple in Ramat Gan - Meir Turgeman
A married couple in their 70s, Yaron and Ilana Moshe, were killed early Wednesday when an Iranian missile with a cluster warhead struck the Tel Aviv area. They were found in a heavily damaged building in Ramat Gan, only a few meters from their safe room.
Damage was also reported at Tel Aviv's Savidor Central railway station and train service was temporarily suspended. Iran has repeatedly used internationally banned cluster munitions against Israel in the war.
(Ynet News)
- Israel Targets Iran Intelligence Chief - Yossi Yehoshua
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed Wednesday that Ismail Khatib, Iran's intelligence minister, was eliminated. "He was responsible for the regime's internal repression apparatus and for advancing external threats." (Ynet News)
- IDF Reduces Planned Hizbullah Large-Scale Rocket Attack - Elisha Ben Kimon
Hizbullah intends to carry out large-scale rocket barrages every few days in an effort to sow panic among the Israeli public. On Tuesday, the IDF identified preparations for such a barrage and warned that more fire than usual was expected.
At the same time, the military acted to thwart and disrupt as many launches as possible, striking launchers mounted on mobile trucks. These vehicles are central to Hizbullah's rocket capabilities and their numbers are limited.
The IDF said Hizbullah had planned to fire twice as many rockets as were ultimately launched. Hizbullah fired more than 100 rockets on Tuesday, most of which were intercepted or otherwise neutralized.
Northern Command has identified changes in Hizbullah's operating methods. The group, which is now left largely with short-range rockets, previously concentrated its weapons in several large depots to enable simultaneous heavy barrages. It has since shifted to dispersing its weapons, making it harder for intelligence agencies to track the many sites. Launchers have been dispersed across rural compounds in Shiite villages, often inside homes.
While there has been an increase in Hizbullah rocket fire, the impact has been limited because most launches do not cross the border. At the start of the war, Hizbullah fired 100 rockets per day; in recent days, that number has risen to 150, with 60% falling short of Israeli territory.
The IDF said Hizbullah fighters are not engaging in close-quarters combat; instead, they are conducting defensive fighting and retreating when Israeli forces advance. Troops have found bags containing improvised explosive devices that had not yet been deployed, underscoring the Lebanese army's insufficient efforts to disarm Hizbullah. As a result, Israel is seeking to establish a more substantial defensive buffer along the border.
Troops are advancing cautiously, using robots to scan areas before entering them, alongside airstrikes and artillery fire. (Ynet News)
- Why Israeli Support for the Battle with Iran Has Stayed So High - Ben Sales
The past 18 days have not been easy here in Israel. As of Wednesday morning, 14 people have been killed in Israel from Iranian missile attacks. The north is under a constant barrage of rockets and drones from Hizbullah, with IDF soldiers pushing deeper into Lebanon. Routinely, Israel's hospitals record more than 100 people admitted per day due to injuries - whether from missile attacks themselves or the constant rush to shelter every time a siren sounds.
Quiet nights in central Israel feel like an increasingly distant memory, especially for people who need to leave their apartment every time the siren blares. In most of the country, kids have been at home as schools remain shut. Considering all of that, you would think Israelis would no longer support this war - except they do, in spades.
Polls show 80% of Israelis support the operation against Iran. Most Israelis see Iran as a pressing, existential threat. "People believe the Iran threat, it's not theoretical," Dahlia Scheindlin, a Ha'aretz columnist, told the Times of Israel. "People see the reality that Iran really is a bad actor in the region....The buildup to this war has been years and years of telling Israelis that this is a real huge, game-changing kind of effort that has to be made."
"Israelis would like to not be living with permanent war. The question is whether they feel they have that option, and if they feel that they don't have the option because they will be existentially destroyed. They'll just say, 'Yeah, I would love to live in peace, but we have to defend our country and defend our lives.'"
(Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- For Once, We Fight with an Equal Ally - Bret Stephens
The idea that crippling Iran's capacity to threaten its neighbors is some sort of purely Israeli interest is belied by every Iranian missile or drone that falls on Dubai, Doha, Manama or Riyadh, not to mention U.S. and NATO military bases in the region. In Oct. 2024, Kamala Harris called Iran our "greatest adversary," adding that one of her "highest priorities" as president would be to ensure that Iran never became a nuclear power.
What is true is that the U.S. is going to war with Israel, not for it. That's something many Americans want: an ally that pulls its weight, shares the risk and contributes meaningfully to victory.
This may be the first time since the Second World War that Washington has had an equal partner with which to share the burdens of war.
Israel, population 10 million, is behaving as an equal partner to America, population 342 million, in a war that the elected leadership of both countries believe is in their respective national interests. Whatever else that is, it isn't the tail wagging the dog. (New York Times)
- How to Keep Up the Economic Pressure Against Iran - Michael Doran
If global economic pressure forces an early ceasefire with Iran, President Trump still has the tools to ensure that Tehran can never rebuild what it has lost. That will require a new phase of economic warfare. This campaign must block Iran from rebuilding its military capabilities after any ceasefire.
With its currency collapsed, its banking sector paralyzed, and its critical defense infrastructure in ruins, Iran's economy stands closer to systemic failure than at any point since 1979. The campaign must ensure this breakdown continues until the regime can no longer reconstitute its coercive power.
Curtailing Iran's oil revenues is critical. Every stage of that trade - from shipping and insurance to the ultimate buyers - should face secondary sanctions from the U.S. Washington also must dismantle Iran's shadow banking system which enables an elaborate sanctions-evasion network using shell companies hosted by American allies such as the UAE. Closing these channels and freezing the funds they hold would strike directly at the regime's financial lifeline.
Mr. Trump is on the verge of resurrecting the Carter Doctrine: No hostile power should be allowed to use the Persian Gulf as a lever against Western economies.
The writer is director of the Middle East Center at the Hudson Institute. (Wall Street Journal)
- When the Iran War Ends, the Mullahs Will Be Broke - Jim Geraghty
The most immediate cause of the ongoing operation in Iran was the Iranian people's protests against their regime.
On Jan. 13, President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social, "Iranian Patriots...help is on its way!"
As 2025 ended, the country's economy was collapsing. Iranians were watching their currency become worthless and food get increasingly expensive, while the mullahs weren't exactly overflowing with ideas to solve the problem.
The same economic problems are waiting on the other side of the conflict. Only then, they will be worse.
Even if the Iranian mullahs retain power after the war, they're going to be broke. Rebuilding their military will be expensive, and handouts for Hamas or Hizbullah, or a nuclear-weapons program, will look like unaffordable luxuries. The war is causing economic stress for the U.S. and its allies, but it's worsening an ongoing economic nightmare for the Iranians.
(Washington Post)
Hizbullah
- Hizbullah's Attacks on Israel Have Sparked Anger among Its Base in Lebanon - Suzan Haidamous
Shiite Muslims in Lebanon who form Hizbullah's base of political and popular support are increasingly furious with the militant group for dragging them into another war.
Hizbullah's missile and drone attacks on Israel have drawn a fierce response, which in turn has forced more than 1 million people to flee - many displaced for the second time in less than two years. Hizbullah's leaders are at risk of losing political legitimacy within their base, as displaced residents fear that south Lebanon could suffer the same fate as Gaza and end up largely reduced to rubble.
The Shiite community now faces a reckoning, said Filippo Dionigi, a professor of international relations at the University of Bristol and author of a book about Hizbullah. "They see Hizbullah as the organization that has represented their interests and their security. But they also are realizing that Hizbullah is leading them into conflicts that exact a very high cost on them."
Several people expressed bewilderment at the decision by Hizbullah's leadership to attack Israel.
"They didn't even think about Ramadan, that it was nighttime, and that it was in cold weather. They didn't think about the people," said Hadi Mourad, a Shiite doctor who opposes Hizbullah.
Ghada, a Shiite woman who was still looking for a place to shelter in Beirut, said she always supported Hizbullah publicly. Now she questioned the point of trying to avenge the war against Iran, seeing no benefit for Tehran or the Lebanese people. "The price we paid was not enough? Displacement, destruction, and devastation." (Washington Post)
Observations:
- Two weeks after the start of the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran, naysayers about the wisdom of the operation remain pervasive and loud. Yet, Iran was steadily rebuilding its nuclear program with an imminent option to race to a bomb, expanding missile production, and continuing to orchestrate an "axis of resistance" dedicated to fomenting chaos and war.
- That's more than enough to justify the risks that are an inevitable part of all wars. Even now it's obvious that continuing a policy of kicking the can down the road that Trump's predecessors chose would have been as colossal a mistake as even the costliest military blunder.
- The first purpose of the campaign is the eradication of Iran's nuclear and ballistic-missile programs, in addition to its support and active participation in international terrorism. Washington and Jerusalem have also stated that they favor regime change in Iran. That's something Israel believes is absolutely necessary to achieve. The Trump administration would like it to happen, but could live without it, as long as the ayatollahs were stripped of their nukes and missiles, and had their terrorist option foreclosed.
- While the success of the U.S.-Israeli offensive won't be able to be fully evaluated until after the conflict is over, it's clear that both militaries have systematically eliminated Iran's military capabilities, hunted down its missile-launchers, and done more damage to its nuclear program.
- The fact that a country as large as Iran is not completely defeated in two weeks is not a reason to believe the war has so far been a failure. If the armed forces of the two allies are allowed to continue their military efforts, the already devastating results for Iran will likely become even more impressive. There is no reason to believe that the war is already a "quagmire."
- The arguments that say the U.S. would have been better off delaying action or even appeasing Iran ring false. The policy of enriching and empowering Tehran that was the consequence of the 2015 nuclear deal led to a stronger and more aggressive Islamist regime. Letting Iran get a nuclear weapon became an increasingly likely scenario in the last year and would have done far more damage to U.S. interests than even a permanent hike in gas prices.
- Letting a tyrannical regime ruled by religious fanatics bent on imposing their version of fanatical Islam on the Middle East and the rest of the world get a nuclear weapon would be a nightmare. And that would have been the inevitable result if the U.S. hadn't prepared to act at some point in the near future.
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