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Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/10/world/middleeast/10intel.html
U.S. Says Iran Has Ability to Expedite a Nuclear Bomb
[New York Times] William J. Broad, Mark Mazzetti and David E. Sanger - American intelligence agencies have concluded in recent months that Iran has created enough nuclear fuel to make a rapid, if risky, sprint for a nuclear weapon, but has deliberately stopped short of the critical last steps to make a bomb. Glyn Davies, the American ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, declared on Wednesday that Iran now had a "possible breakout capacity" to enrich its stockpile of uranium to bomb-grade material. In interviews over the past two months, intelligence and military officials, and members of the Obama administration, have said they are convinced that Iran has made significant progress on uranium enrichment, especially over the past year. In a 2007 announcement, the U.S. said Iran had worked on designs for making a warhead in a project that was halted in 2003. The new intelligence finds no convincing evidence that the design work has resumed. But Israel has cited evidence that the design effort secretly resumed in 2005, at the order of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Israelis have argued that there could be little or no warning time before Iran completes building an actual weapon - especially if Iran has hidden facilities. Israeli officials cite two secret programs in Iran, Project 110 and Project 111, the code names for what are believed to be warhead-design programs run by an academic, Mohsen Fakrizadeh. International inspectors have shown videos and documents suggesting that Fakrizadeh's group has worked on nuclear triggers, trajectories for missiles and the detonation of a warhead at almost 2,000 feet above ground - which would suggest a nuclear detonation. Accurate intelligence about the progress of Iran's weapons programs has been notoriously poor. Much of the country's early activity was missed for nearly 18 years, until a dissident group revealed the existence of enrichment efforts. Israeli officials say privately that the Obama administration is deluding itself in thinking that diplomacy will persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program. Even inside the White House, some officials think Mr. Obama's diplomatic effort will prove fruitless.