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Source: http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008847
Hizballah Didn't Win
[Wall Street Journal] Amir Taheri - Politically, Hizballah had to declare victory: It had to pretend that the death and desolation it had provoked had been worth it. A claim of victory was Hizballah's shield against criticism of a strategy that had led Lebanon into war without the knowledge of its government and people. The tactic worked for a day or two. However, even Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has made it clear that he would not allow Hizballah to continue as a state within the state. Michel Aoun, a maverick Christian leader and tactical ally of Hizballah, has called for the Shiite militia to disband. Hizballah is also criticized from within the Lebanese Shiite community, which accounts for some 40 percent of the population. Sayyed Ali al-Amin, the grand old man of Lebanese Shiism, has broken years of silence to criticize Hizballah for provoking the war, and called for its disarmament. Money sent from Shiite immigrants in West Africa (where they dominate the diamond trade) and in the U.S. (especially Michigan) has helped create a prosperous middle class of Shiites more interested in the good life than martyrdom. This new Shiite bourgeoisie dreams of a place in the mainstream of Lebanese politics and hopes to use the community's demographic advantage as a springboard for national leadership. In the 2004 municipal elections, Hizballah won some 40 percent of the votes in the Shiite areas. In last year's general election, Hizballah won only 12 of the 27 seats allocated to Shiites in the 128-seat National Assembly - despite making alliances with Christian and Druze parties and spending vast sums of Iranian money to buy votes. Hizballah's position is no more secure in the broader Arab world, where it is seen as an Iranian tool rather than as the vanguard of a new Nahdha (Awakening), as the Western media claim. "Hizballah won the propaganda war because many in the West wanted it to win as a means of settling score with the United States," says Egyptian columnist Ali al-Ibrahim. "But the Arabs have become wise enough to know TV victory from real victory."