|
Trending Topics
|
Source: http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3018
Global Economic Crisis Boosts Utility of U.S. Sanctions on Syria
[Washington Institute for Near East Policy] Andrew J. Tabler - Even as Washington appears to be softening its stance on sanctions against Syria that have been in place since 2004, with an eye toward engaging Damascus, sanctions remain an important tool to ensure that engagement achieves U.S. policy goals. Rather than dropping sanctions, Washington should recalibrate them to leverage the economic pressure on Damascus that has been exacerbated by the global economic crisis. Fueled by high oil prices and increased investment from the Gulf, Syria has posted an average annual economic growth rate of about 5% over the past five years. However, oil production - proceeds from which account for 27% of state revenues - is declining by about 9% per year. With the collapse in oil prices, the Economist Intelligence Unit now estimates that Syria's budget deficit will swell to $5.2 billion. The bad economic news explains Damascus's recent shift in focus from the need for Washington to mediate peace talks to a demand for Washington to drop U.S. sanctions, evidence that U.S. sanctions on Damascus are having an increasing impact. If targeted sanctions are effective, Damascus will be forced to choose between continuing its policies and suffering the economic consequences, or concluding clear agreements with Washington to change its policies and gain American assistance to put Syria on the road to prosperity. The writer is a Soref fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute.