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Is the Iranian Regime Collapsing?
(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) Menashe Amir - To grasp Iran's ambitions and foreign policy it is necessary to understand the Islamic Republic's religious ideology which aspires to establish global Islamic rule - under Shi'ite leadership. This belief lies at the heart of Iran's foreign policy, including its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons. Ayatollah Khomeini ruled that a Muslim mustn't touch infidels, deal with them, or come into contact with them. Jews, in particular, are considered unclean. Iranian leaders call for the annihilation of Israel because these "unclean Jews" occupy the Muslim land of Palestine and hold the keys to the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque. When Ahmadinejad declared that Israel ought to be wiped off the map, he added that this was merely the first stage of the confrontation with the West, which means Christianity. Indeed, part of the animosity that Iranians express toward Judaism and Israel stems from the fact that they consider Judaism to be a pillar of the Christian faith. The Revolutionary Guards have taken over most of the economy, most of the political positions, and have infiltrated the judiciary system, though they continue to let Khamenei act as the face of their regime. Unlike the religious leaders of Iran, the Revolutionary Guards lack moral and religious values, with the exception of one very deep religious belief: that they are the messengers of the Mahdi, the vanguard of the messiah. In one possible scenario, the regime will collapse from the inside. Changes to the system of subsidies can only add to Ahmadinejad's unpopularity. In this context, international pressure and sanctions on Iran will very much influence the continuation of the struggle against the regime. Menashe Amir, one of Israel's leading experts on Iran, is the chief editor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Persian-language website and former head of the Israel Broadcasting Authority's Persian-language division. (Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)