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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-k-clemons/obama-and-the-middle-east_b_546424.html
Obama and the Middle East
(Huffington Post) Eric K. Clemons and Elizabeth T. Gray, Jr. - President Obama should avoid proposing simple solutions to complex problems. Look for causal linkages, not just proximity. Stopping the construction of new settlements won't end centuries of misunderstanding and grievances. Work with these linkages and with the situation as it is, not as he would want it to be. For example, if the Palestinians think they can get all of Palestine just by waiting, President Obama needs to create a better option, either by making it clear that they cannot just wait, or by offering them something they cannot get just by waiting. Above all, President Obama should do no harm. The law of unintended consequences suggests that any time anyone adjusts a complex system, the results may be surprising. In this instance, we suspect that President Obama and the rest of the world would find the results of this stare-down with Israel disappointing as well. Eric Clemons is a professor at Wharton and an expert in modeling the behavior of complex and unpredictable system. Elizabeth T. Gray, Jr. is an expert on complex negotiations.