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Source: http://www.nypost.com/seven/12082007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/rough_estimate_17022.htm
What U.S. Intelligence Missed on Iran Nukes
[New York Post] Amir Taheri - Tehran's policy has never been aimed at actually making a nuclear weapon. From the late '60s (even before the Khomeinists seized power) it has aimed at acquiring what's called a "nuclear surge capacity." This means having the knowledge, technological base, infrastructure and raw material needed to make nuclear weapons in a short time - without actually making the bomb. Acquiring "surge capacity" was a key part of the late shah's overall strategy and has remained a pillar of Iran's defense doctrine. No one can come up with a lawyer-proof case that the Khomeinists are actually building a bomb. But when, and if, such a case becomes possible, it may be too late. This is the beauty of aiming at a "surge capacity." It's certainly foolish to cry wolf where none is around. But it could be suicidal to pretend there can be no wolf where one may come along.