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Insurgency Seen Forcing Change in Iraq Strategy
(Boston Globe) Bryan Bender - Following the successful American offensive in the insurgent stronghold of Fallujah last fall, which killed at least 1,000 insurgents, there was a dramatic reduction in attacks, according to U.S. military officials. After Fallujah, some U.S. commanders and Pentagon planners had expressed optimism that U.S. troop levels could be reduced following Iraqi elections. But since the Jan. 31 Iraqi elections, the insurgents, relying on steady streams of funding and weapons, new recruits, and staging areas in Syria and possibly Iran, have struck back with a vengeance and U.S. force levels have remained constant. Despite U.S. estimates that it kills or captures between 1,000 and 3,000 insurgents a month, the number of daily attacks is going back up. Down to about 30 to 40 a day in February, attacks are now up to at least 70 per day, according to the U.S. Central Command. The insurgency has demonstrated a keen ability to shift its tactics in the face of persistent U.S. and Iraqi battlefield victories. A major reason why the insurgency has remained so undeterred, U.S. and Iraqi officials believe, is the continued, if passive, support it is receiving from large parts of Iraq's Sunni minority. Specialists say they believe Iraq's estimated 5 million Sunnis fear that the country's government, dominated by Shi'ites and Kurds, will exact revenge on them for decades of Hussein's brutal rein. There are only 17 Sunni members in the 275-person Iraqi National Assembly.