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Source: http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/tanotes/TAUnotes139.doc
Is a Third Intifada Inevitable?
(Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies) Yoram Schweitzer - Abbas is widely perceived as a transitional figure, and many among the younger generation already want to replace the veteran leadership still dominated by "outsiders" who came to the West Bank and Gaza with Arafat. Most recent terrorist acts have actually been carried out by marginal Fatah elements as a way of asserting their individual or collective demands, or by splinter groups financed by Iran or Hizballah. But even Islamic Jihad, whose political weight among Palestinians is minimal, recognizes that it will eventually have to accept the parameters dictated by the mainstream forces in Palestinian politics or else risk being repressed. Predictions that another round of large-scale violence is inevitable do not realistically reflect either the strategic balance between Israel and the Palestinians or the interests of the two sides as perceived by their respective mainstreams.