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Source: http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=227751
A U.S. Peace Plan?
(Jerusalem Post) Barry Rubin - The assumption on which the 1990s Oslo peace process was based is precisely the same as President Obama's premise as outlined in his May 19 State Department speech: The Palestinians are eager to get a state of their own; consequently they are willing to make concessions, they will live up to their commitments, and international security guarantees can be relied upon as a fail-safe. Palestinians eager? They aren't eager. Many Palestinian leaders frequently say that it is worth decades of not getting a state and continuing to fight in order to get everything in the end. They also say the current generation has no right to close the door to total victory and Israel's destruction by future generations. They mistakenly believe time is on their side. Consequently are they willing to make concessions? Neither Palestinian public opinion nor the political balance of forces allows for the more moderate sector of the leadership (which is very small) to make the needed concessions and compromises. They will live up to their commitments? Systematically stopping and punishing terrorism? No. Preparing their people for peace? No. Ending incitement against Israel? No. Refraining from violence? No. International guarantees? Worthless. There is a long list of examples, including most recently the failure to stop Hizbullah's return to southern Lebanon and the end to Syrian-Iranian arms smuggling to the group, as pledged by the U.S. and UN after 2006. The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center at IDC Herzliya.