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Source: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/06/the_hard_man_of_damascus
The Hard Man of Damascus
(Foreign Policy) Gary Gambill - With Syrian troops encircling the city of Hama, the Obama administration and its European counterparts continue to hold out hope that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad can be coaxed into accepting a peaceful transition to democracy. Unfortunately, there are no plausible circumstances under which a democratic transition would constitute a rational choice for the embattled dictator, and it appears exceedingly unlikely that the Syrian people will peacefully accept anything less. The powerful stigma associated with Alawite hegemony over a majority Sunni population both necessitates and enables the current Syrian police state. A freely elected Syrian government would surely be dominated by Sunnis and therefore strongly disposed to mete out harsh justice for the preceding decades of brutal tyranny. The select group of dissidents allowed to attend a "national dialogue" conference in Damascus last week conspicuously excluded figures with significant influence over the protesters. The Syrian president isn't trying to negotiate with his opponents - he's trying to divide and defeat them.