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Preventing Civil War in Syria
(Wall Street Journal) Elliott Abrams - Unlike in Egypt or Tunisia, sectarian rivalries are central to Syrian politics. The Assad regime is Alawite, an offshoot of Shiite Islam that comprises only 10-15% of Syrians. However, the best-armed and best-trained divisions of the Syrian army are Alawite. To avoid civil war, our goal should be to separate the Assad family and its closest cronies from the rest of the Alawite community. The Alawite generals in the Syrian Army should be key targets for a campaign of psychological warfare urging them to salvage their community's post-Assad future by refusing now to kill their fellow citizens. The U.S. should stop speaking about "the regime" and speak instead about "the Assads." We should say clearly that Assad must and will go. The Alawites, and the generals in particular, won't think hard about their place in Syria's future until they are convinced Assad is finished. For the same reason the U.S. should be far more active in turning Assad and his closest supporters into international pariahs, using whatever multilateral bodies are available. Much can be done to avoid a sectarian war in Syria if the Assad mafia can be separated from much of its own sectarian support. We can use our voice and influence to persuade Syria's minorities that they have a secure future after Assad is gone - and help all of Syria's communities agree on the rules for the post-Assad era that is coming. The writer, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, handled Middle East affairs at the National Security Council from 2001 to 2009.