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Source: http://www.tau.ac.il./jcss/tanotes/TAUnotes97.doc
Hizballah's Uncertain Course
(Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies/Tel Aviv University) Eyal Zisser - An emerging regional reality is severely constraining Hizballah's freedom of maneuver, and internal Lebanese dynamics are also weakening the organization and limit its operating room. Almost a year after the American conquest of Iraq, new rules of the game in the Middle East are becoming clearer. Both Syria and Iran are interested in calming things down in order not to draw American fire, and that seriously limits Hizballah's freedom to act against Israel. Constant criticism of the organization in the Lebanese press indicates that the public's patience is wearing thin. About a week ago, even al-Safir, which is closely linked to Damascus, attacked Hizballah for using its struggle to liberate Shab'a Farms as an excuse to avoid addressing Lebanon's internal problems. To some extent, this prisoner exchange deal is an achievement for Hizballah, but it is a short-term gain. The day after the exchange is carried out, people will again question the ultimate purpose of the organization's activities.