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Source: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4154089,00.html
Egypt Won't Seek War
(Ynet News) Giora Eiland - The latest events in Egypt raise concerns in Israel, and rightfully so. Egypt is entering a period of uncertainty that will affect us as well. However, the risks are not as great as some predict. We can divide the risks into two: Tactical-operative and strategic. The tactical threat is high and immediate. It stems from the fact that the Sinai has turned into a wholly uncontrollable region. The vacuum attracts many elements that are hostile to Israel, ranging from Palestinian terrorists from Gaza to various al-Qaeda elements. On the other hand, the strategic threat of Egypt turning into an enemy state, or even the risk of a military confrontation, is a matter whose likelihood is low and whose materialization, if at all, is remote. Even if the worst change takes place in Egypt - a Muslim Brotherhood government - such a regime would clearly seek to avoid military confrontation with Israel. The political reality in Egypt would require any government to first focus on stabilizing the domestic situation. Stabilizing the economic situation depends on four sources: tourism, the movement of ships through the Suez Canal, gas sales to neighboring countries, and Western investments. All four aspects would be gravely undermined in case of military tensions vis-a-vis Israel, and any future ruler knows this well. Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland is a former Israeli National Security Advisor.