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Source: http://csis.org/publication/iran-and-threat-close-gulf
Iran and the Threat to "Close" the Gulf
(Center for Strategic and International Studies) Anthony H. Cordesman - There is nothing new about Iran's threat to close the Gulf. Iran is reshaping its military forces to steadily increase the threat to Gulf shipping and shipping in the Gulf of Oman. It also is gradually increasing its ability to operate in the Indian Ocean. This increase in Iranian capability is almost certainly not designed to take the form of a major war with the U.S. and Southern Gulf states, which could result from any Iranian effort to truly close the Gulf. It does, however, give Iran the ability to carry out a wide range of much lower level attacks which could sharply raise the risk to Gulf shipping, and either reduce tanker traffic and shipping or sharply raise the insurance cost of such ship movements. Any such Iranian actions do not have to be tied to the Strait of Hormuz. They could occur anywhere in the Gulf and in the Gulf of Oman - and Iran could keep exporting its own oil. Moreover, Iran's growing long-range missile forces, and movement towards a nuclear weapons capability, will give it an increasing capability to compensate for its aging and low capability regular naval and air forces with a far more threatening level of deterrence.