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Iran's Self-Defeating Saber-Rattling
(New York Post) Amir Taheri - Could Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? Maybe. The strait is a 34-mile-long choke point dotted with islands, separating mainland Iran from the tip of Mussandam Peninsula, which belongs to Oman. The northern half, known as the Clarence Strait, belongs to Iran and is hardly ever used by foreign oil tankers. Iran shares the southern part, the main route for tankers, with Oman, which owns the island of Beit al-Ghanam at the southern entrance. To close the channel, Iran would have to invade and occupy Beit al-Ghanam, thus declaring war on Oman - which would amount to war with all six Gulf Cooperation Council members. Moreover, the southern part of the strait is recognized as international waters, with the right of "innocent passage" guaranteed for all. Closing it would be an act of war against the United Nations. By March, Arab exporters will be using pipelines connecting them with the Arabian Sea through the emirate of Fujairah, bypassing Hormuz. Furthermore, Tehran's hopes of provoking global shortages may be exaggerated. World oil stockpiles, now at the highest level ever, could be released to prevent sharp price rises. Also, Russia, Norway and Angola have plans for more production in 2012.