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Source: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/11/the_20_percent_solution
Former UN Nuclear Inspector: Iran Will Have Enough Enriched Uranium for 4-5 Nukes by End of 2012
(Foreign Policy) Olli Heinonen - On Jan. 9, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had begun producing 20% enriched uranium at Fordow, a fuel enrichment plant buried deep underground. Since Feb. 2010, Iran has been producing 20% enriched uranium at Natanz. Iran continues to produce 20% enriched uranium despite the fact that this exceeds its civilian needs and, as President Ahmadinejad acknowledged in September, does not make economic sense. Increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium, together with studies related to an advanced nuclear weapon design, are building blocks for attaining a virtual nuclear weapon capability. At current production rates, Iran can expect to have a stock of 20%-enriched uranium of around 250 kg. UF6 by the end of 2012, as well as more than 4 tons of 3.5%-enriched UF6. If Iran decides to produce weapons-grade uranium from 20%-enriched uranium, it has already technically undertaken 90% of the enrichment effort required. Growing the stockpile of 3.5% and 20%-enriched uranium, as Iran is now doing, provides the basic material needed to produce four to five nuclear weapons. The writer is a former deputy director general of the IAEA, where he headed its Department of Safeguards.