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Prospects for Success in the Iran Nuclear Negotiations
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Patrick Clawson and Mehdi Khalaji - If Tehran decides to make a concession, it will not want the move to be publicly perceived as a capitulation to economic pressure. Instead, the regime would need to present any nuclear accord as a victory for Iran. So the triumphalist tone of recent articles should be seen as an indication that Tehran is preparing the public for a deal. The most important measure of success for the Baghdad talks is whether they conclude with plans for accelerated, detailed follow-up discussions. If the next high-level meeting is another five weeks away, that would be a very bad sign. A leisurely pace would suggest that Iran is using the talks to stall while its nuclear program progresses. Unless all parties feel the time pressure, the Baghdad negotiations and subsequent talks will become a sideshow to the main act: Iran's continued nuclear progress. Patrick Clawson is director of research at The Washington Institute. Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at the Institute.