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Source: http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=273938
Expert Views Egyptian Election
(Jerusalem Post) Herb Keinon - Janice Gross Stein, director of the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs, is in Israel this week to receive an honorary doctorate from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem for her work in conflict resolution and Middle East studies. She said that huge demonstrations should be expected if "old guard" member Ahmed Shafiq wins the Egyptian presidential election. She said that such an outcome would be widely interpreted as the reinstatement of the army and the old inner circle. Even if the election was not rigged, she said, it would be viewed as if it was. If Mohamed Mursi, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, is elected, she predicted that the street would react more quietly and an arrangement would likely be worked out whereby the military would withdraw to the barracks in return for a commitment that the government would not threaten the military's status and economic interests. The issue of Egyptian-Israeli relations is only a marginal part of the electoral campaign and is very low on the domestic political agenda, which is focused on the country's huge economic problems. Gross Stein said that regardless of who wins, she did not see anyone backing off from the Camp David accords, at least for the next five years. While she did not think the Muslim Brotherhood would talk to Israel if Mursi were to win, she anticipated that ties would remain what they are now, with the interlocutor on the Egyptian side being the military, not the government.