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Saudi Succession and the Illusion of Stability
(Wall Street Journal) - Karen Elliott House - The death and burial this weekend of Saudi Crown Prince Nayef, the second Saudi crown prince to die in less than a year, demonstrates the inherent instability of the absolute monarchy still being ruled by the geriatric sons of the founder of modern Saudi Arabia. King Abdullah is himself 89 and in failing health. So the looming question is will the ruling Al Saud family pass the crown to yet another geriatric brother of the king? Or will he seize this occasion to jump to a new generation of royals who might be able to revitalize the moribund kingdom? The kingdom faces multiple problems: Unemployment is 40% among 20- to 24-year-olds, 40% of Saudis live on less than $1,000 a month, the kingdom's one-dimensional economy earns nearly 80% of its revenues from oil, and 90% of all workers in its private sector are foreigners. A growing number of frustrated Saudis no longer either respect or fear their leaders. Much like the Soviet Union in its final years when power passed from one old man to another - Brezhnev to Andropov to Chernenko - in quick succession, the Saudi royal family continues to pass the crown from one aged son of the founder to the next.