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Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions
(Center for Strategic and International Studies) Anthony H. Cordesman and Alexander Wilner - In the wake of recent failed negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, it seems increasingly unlikely that a political solution will be reached regarding Tehran's increasing uranium enrichment. As a result, some form of military clash between the U.S. and Iran is becoming increasingly likely. The Iranian military establishment and the IRGC are steadily acquiring the kind of military assets that can halt or obstruct Gulf shipping and threaten the U.S.' superior conventional naval forces in the region. Although U.S. conventional power would defeat Iranian forces in a protracted conflict, Iran's arsenal of smart munitions, anti-ship cruise missiles, submarines, mines, and fast-attack craft potentially could inflict significant losses on U.S. and allied forces and disrupt Gulf shipping in a surprise attack. The military annexes to the November 2011 IAEA report indicate that Iran has made major progress in assembling all the technologies and manufacturing skills necessary to design a fission warhead small enough to mount on a missile and test it through simulated explosive testing.