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Source: http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syrias-summer-war-and-the-fate-of-the-regime
Syria's Summer War and the Fate of the Regime
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Jeffrey White - Syria's internal war has increased dramatically in intensity and scope over the past three months. Reported clashes between regime forces and the armed opposition doubled in May, then again in June, and yet again in July. Last month was the most violent of the war, with some 552 clashes reported and an estimated 1,100 regime personnel killed or wounded. Although the armed rebels also took casualties (estimated at 624 in July), their strength in men and combat formations appeared to grow. There were escalating clashes in 9 of 14 provinces in July. Going forward, the regime will likely begin breaking into pieces. It will fight hardest to hold Aleppo, Damascus, and the Alawite heartland, but the portion of the country fully under government control is shrinking. The writer, a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, is a former senior defense intelligence officer.