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What We Know about Iran's Nukes
(Wall Street Journal) Olli Heinonen and Simon Henderson - The International Atomic Energy Agency on Aug. 30 released its latest report on Iran's nuclear activities, which conveys a worrying message. Iran continues to expand its capacity for enriching uranium. There are now two new groups of centrifuges installed at Fordow - the hardened site built under a mountain near Qom - which signals a doubling of the site's capacity since May. Crucially, Iran continues to stockpile uranium enriched to 3.5% and 20% purity - levels for which Iran has no immediate use unless it is planning to make an atomic bomb. (Its stockpiles of 20% uranium far exceed Tehran's claimed needs for a reactor making medical isotopes.) Iran is now operating around 11,000 centrifuges. If Iran acquires or develops advanced centrifuges, it could pursue a "fast break-out" - moving within months to 90%-enriched uranium, which is weapons-grade - using its already sizable and growing inventories of 20%. Once it has five or six bombs-worth of 90% enriched uranium, it would essentially be a latent nuclear-weapon state - whether it has actually tested a bomb or not. Mr. Heinonen, a former top IAEA inspector, is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center. Mr. Henderson is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.