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Wanted: A Truly Credible Military Threat to Iran
(Foreign Policy) David Rothkopf - Despite the president's regular assurance that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and that force will be used if necessary, the American people's war fatigue in the wake of Iraq and Afghanistan has made any complex, costly, or highly risky action a tough political sell back home. Further, there have been multiple assertions by analysts that the likelihood of a successful strike on Iran is low. According to a source close to the U.S.-Israeli discussions on Iran, the action that participants currently see as most likely is a joint U.S.-Israeli surgical strike targeting Iranian enrichment facilities. Were it clearer that the primary Iran option being discussed is a limited surgical strike, then a U.S. threat of force would be that much more credible. And if it were more credible, then it would have the added benefit of providing precisely the kind of added leverage that might make diplomacy more successful. It's not the size of the threatened attack, but the likelihood that it will actually be made, that makes a military threat a useful diplomatic tool.