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Source: http://bipartisanpolicy.org/library/report/price-of-inaction
The Price of Inaction: Energy and Economic Effects of a Nuclear Iran
(Bipartisan Policy Center) Sen. Charles S. Robb and Gen. (ret.) Charles Wald - Tehran crossing the nuclear threshold might not immediately precipitate a conflict or cause a disruption in the flow of oil. But the expectation of potential future disruptions that a nuclear Iran would introduce into global energy markets would have a significant effect on oil prices and, by extension, the U.S. economy. Our analysis indicates that the expectation of instability and conflict could increase the price of oil by between 10 and 25%, which would result in prices $11 to $27 higher per barrel.