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Countdown to the Red Line in Iran
(Wall Street Journal) Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz - Iran's oil exports have been halved by economic sanctions, but that still leaves the regime with around $50 billion in oil income this year, according to calculations by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Nevertheless, the Iranian economy has taken a substantial hit from sanctions. Tehran's recent currency restrictions were also a warning: In all probability the regime is battening down the hatches, husbanding foreign-exchange reserves, and preparing for a long ordeal. Given the progress that Tehran has already made with its nuclear plans - still-hidden centrifuge manufacturing plants, enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, a likely weaponization facility at Parchin, and an extensive ballistic-missile program - the regime faces a short, relatively inexpensive dash to the nuclear finish line. At what point does the stockpiling of 20%-enriched uranium so diminish the time for processing weapons-grade material that Iran could become a threshold nuclear state in less than 30 days? A reasonable guess, based on the increasing number of centrifuges, is that Tehran will be there by the end of 2013. Gerecht, a former CIA case officer, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Dubowitz is FDD's executive director.