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Source: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=10426
Arafat's Legacy: A Broken Leadership
(Beirut Daily Star)Barry Rubin - It is a mistake to view Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) as the post-Arafat leader of the Palestinians. He might become head of the PA, but that does not mean the PA bureaucracy, Fatah, or the security services will heed his authority. The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and Hamas will ignore his orders unless forced to act otherwise. While the PLO and PA are largely paper organizations, or at most bureaucracies, it is Fatah where the power really resides. Abu Mazen certainly does not control Fatah. That organization's new head is Farouk Kaddoumi, a hard-liner who is much more popular than Abu Mazen. In addition, it is those with the guns who are the ones who are going to decide whether terrorism continues and whether violence will be turned against Palestinian moderates, even if they are supposedly the movement's new leaders. The influence of Israel or the U.S. and the West on Palestinian politics is quite limited. Israel can try to use confidence-building methods and flexibility to show that the moderates can deliver results to the Palestinians. However, the hard-liners of all factions discount Israeli concessions as tricks while simultaneously portraying them as victories won by armed struggle. Hence, the effects of such concessions will be very much diluted.