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Source: http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief004-10.htm
The New Iraqi Government: An Interim Appraisal
(ICA/JCPA) Amazia Baram - In the present Iraqi government there are 19 Sunnis and 14 Shi'ites in a state where 55% are Shi'ites, which is very generous toward the Sunnis. Sunni Arabs, who represent some 15-18%, have historically ruled Iraq. All of a sudden, Iraq is to be ruled by the majority and the Sunni Arabs feel they are being disinherited. The motivation behind the extensive terrorist campaign in today's Iraq is to reverse the results of the war and return the Sunni Arab minority to national hegemony. Under Muqtada al-Sadr's Shi'ite insurrection, young, unemployed, uneducated Iraqi Shi'ites hoped to become the equivalent of Ayatollah Khomeini's Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The Kurds would love to be independent, but they will not become independent and they know it, because Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Baghdad will never allow it. If the central government does not enjoy a degree of legitimacy, the country will divide - not neatly into Sunni, Shi'ite, and Kurdish zones, but into a large number of warring factions and warlords.