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Arms for Syria's Rebels: Shaping the War's Outcome
(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Jeffrey White - Rebel actions have maintained continuous pressure on regime forces across most of the country, with the war being fought, at varying levels of intensity, in thirteen of Syria's fourteen provinces (only coastal Tartus is essentially unaffected). Reinforcing the rebels with military assistance increases the likelihood of regime defeat at the local and provincial level. The rebels have begun chipping away at the regime's airpower advantage through attacks on airfields in Idlib, Aleppo, Deir al-Zour, Homs, Raqqa, and Rif Damascus provinces, as well as by using antiaircraft guns and antiaircraft missiles captured from the regime and acquiring some man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) from external sources. These actions have destroyed increasing numbers of combat aircraft. An outcome the U.S. does not (or should not) want is the deliberate retreat by regime forces to key areas of the country (including the Alawite coastal areas and perhaps the Damascus area), allowing remnants of the regime to stay around indefinitely. The writer, a former senior defense intelligence officer, is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute.