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Source: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/347996.html
The Coming Earthquake
(Haaretz) Uzi Arad - American experts say Iran is only two years away from manufacturing a nuclear weapon. Israeli officials are quoted as saying the point of no return for that capability will be crossed in mid-2004. Last week Iran showed off missiles that were capable of carrying nuclear warheads considerable distances. In two years, therefore, Iran could have an operational nuclear missile system. A nuclear Iran could lead other countries like Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or even Syria onto the nuclear path. That would threaten U.S. security and the security of its friends in the region in an unprecedented manner. According to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance Paula DeSutter, the president has decided that nuclearization of Iran cannot be allowed to happen, But if for reasons deriving from election-year politics, or as a result of the U.S. being pinned down in the Iraqi arena, the president does not have the political and other means necessary to intensify its response to the Iranian challenge, then the American gains in Iraq will be meaningless, the Bush doctrine will effectively collapse, and the Iranian threat will grow to its full, serious extent