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Source: http://www.isisnucleariran.org/assets/pdf/Iran_critical_capability_17July2013.pdf
Iran's Critical Capability in 2014: Verifiably Stopping Iran from Increasing the Number and Quality of its Centrifuges
(Institute for Science and International Security) David Albright and Christina Walrond - Iran is expected to achieve a critical capability in mid-2014, which is defined as the technical capability to produce sufficient weapon-grade uranium from its safeguarded stocks of low-enriched uranium for a nuclear explosive, without being detected. Iran would achieve this capability principally by implementing its existing, firm plans to install thousands more IR-1 centrifuges, and perhaps a few thousand IR-2m centrifuges, at its declared Natanz and Fordow centrifuge sites. Iran's criticality date could be achieved a few months earlier, if Iran successfully deploys and operates several thousand advanced centrifuges and continues installing thousands of IR-1 centrifuges. The most immediate priority is preventing Iran from developing a critical capability that would allow it to far more easily produce nuclear weapons. If an Iranian breakout to nuclear weapons is detectable, it becomes less likely Iran will try for fear of the repercussions. In addition to curtailing Iran's production and stockpile of near 20%-enriched uranium, any interim negotiated deal must include a verifiable pledge by Iran not to upgrade the type and increase the number of its operational centrifuges anywhere in Iran.