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Source: http://nytimes.com/2002/09/24/opinion/24KRIS.html
The Day After
(New York Times) Nicholas D. Kristof - As soon as American troops are rolling through Saddam Hussein's palaces, expect battles between rebels and army units in one Shiite city after another, periodic calls for an Iranian-style theocracy, and perhaps a drift toward civil war. If the U.S. brings democracy to Iraq, it will mean seizing power from the 17 percent Sunni minority who dominate the army and government and giving it to the 60 percent Shiite majority. The upshot could be greater influence for Iran.