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Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/printarticle/gam/20021111/IBWARR
Think Tank Sees Little Impact of Iraq War
(Globe and Mail - Canada/AFP) - A U.S.-led attack against Iraq is highly likely next year, but the war will be quick and its impact on the world economy should be limited and confined mainly to changes in the price of oil, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has said. The war "should go well, and quickly, lasting no more than three months, during which the U.S. removes Mr. Hussein and replaces him." However, there is a 10% probability that a successful coup against Mr. Hussein could take place before a U.S. attack is launched.