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Source: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_47/b3809036.htm
An Attack on Saddam Won't Send Oil Sky-High
(Business Week) Gary S. Becker - With a quick and decisive defeat of Saddam, the price of crude oil is likely to fall sharply. Today, oil accounts for only 3.5% of U.S. GDP thanks to more efficient cars, houses, and equipment, and a shift of production in the American economy toward less energy-intensive methods. The drop in the importance of oil to Europe and Japan has been sharper still. Moreover, much of America's oil imports come from Mexico, Venezuela, Canada, Norway, Britain, Russia, and a growing share from African producers. While prices more than doubled after Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, they fell sharply shortly after Desert Storm began in January 1991.