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The Rocky Path to a Long-Term Settlement with Iran
(Washington Post) David Albright - In the short run, the deal agreed to by Western powers and Iran accomplishes a great deal. In the long run, however, many key issues still must be settled. Under the deal, Iran's nuclear "breakout" time would lengthen for the first time since its capability began approaching dangerous levels in the past year. The time it would need to produce a weapon would expand to at least 1.9-2.2 months, up from 1-1.6 months. To justify significant sanctions relief, any long-term deal would need to ensure that Iran's centrifuge capacity is highly limited and that these limits will further increase breakout times. It should be limited to one enrichment site, which means Fordow should be closed. These limitations should last for more than a decade. The Arak reactor will need to close or be converted to a more benign reactor. Given its track record, Iran can be expected to resist these limitations, but U.S. officials must remain firm. The writer is president of the Institute for Science and International Security.