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One More Last Chance
(Foreign Policy) Aaron David Miller - The odds that Kerry can succeed in reaching an Israeli-Palestinian agreement are long; and even if he did manage to reach a Framework Agreement on Permanent Status (FAPS), that doesn't mean the piece of paper can be implemented. Three of the issues likely to be referred to in a FAPS appear to be breaking Israel's way: security, refugees, and recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. The Americans won't support the Palestinian view on the right of return for refugees and have already endorsed the "Israel as a Jewish state" issue. Moreover, if press reports on security issues are accurate, Israel will be able to maintain its own forces in the Jordan Valley. Yet on borders and Jerusalem, Washington is closer to Abbas than to Netanyahu. But even if an agreement is reached, how do you deal with Hamas in Gaza? In the wake of the Israeli withdrawal from there, no Israeli prime minister is likely to withdraw from the West Bank unless all the Palestinian guns, including Hamas' high-trajectory weapons, fall silent permanently. The writer is a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.