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Despite the Smiles in Vienna, the Gaps Are Still Wide
(Economist-UK) Gary Samore, who was Barack Obama's senior adviser on arms control for four years, notes three big remaining obstacles to a comprehensive accord to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions: agreeing on the extent of Iran's capacity to enrich uranium and the kind of research it can do; the length of time an agreement would cover; and the way in which sanctions are unwound. The gap between Western and Iranian negotiators on all three is wide. To sell a deal to a skeptical Congress, only a very low number of centrifuges will be acceptable; people close to the talks suggest between 3,000-4,000 of the older IR-1 centrifuges at most. But Iran wants to keep all 19,000 of the centrifuges it has already deployed and to be able to move up to 50,000 in a few years or substitute IR-1s with newer IR-2ms that are six times more efficient. It would also deem any curb on its nuclear R&D to be insulting. The requirement for Obama's team, says Samore, is to be able to say that the breakout period (to enrich enough uranium for one nuclear device) is at least a year, compared with about two months now. Though a crude measure, everyone understands it. Samore thinks it would be politically impossible in America to sell anything less. The West is looking for an accord with Iran to last 10-20 years. Iran is talking about five years maximum. Finally, the Americans and Iranians differ over the sequencing of sanctions relief. But Obama cannot expunge the legislation on U.S. sanctions without Congress' support. In any case, the West would prefer to ease sanctions in stages, to encourage Iran to meet whatever obligations it has agreed to.