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Source: http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-nuclear-nightmares-russia-china-soon-iran-10557
The American Intelligence Community Has Never Accurately Predicted When States Have Gone Nuclear
(National Interest) Gabriel Scheinmann - Israelis and Arabs alike worry that by the time America is certain that Iran is within reach of possessing a nuclear weapon, Washington's ability or willingness to stop it will be out of reach. The major Iranian nuclear facilities of Natanz, Arak, and Fordow were discovered only belatedly by Western intelligence. Not once has the American intelligence community accurately predicted when hostile states have gone nuclear. Six weeks before the Soviets tested their first bomb in August 1949, U.S. intelligence confidently assessed that a Russian test was at least two years away. The CIA estimated that China would not have the necessary amount of fissionable material for a nuclear weapon until mid-1965. China tested its first nuclear bomb on October 16, 1964. Most recently, the Bush Administration was blindsided by Israeli intelligence showing the existence of a Syrian plutonium reactor. The writer is the Director of Policy at the Jewish Policy Center.